NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

As a whole, the Jets are a very difficult team to sell given the grisly prognostication that surrounds them. Often teams of this nature come accompanied with an inflated point number to entice action. There is a very good chance here that the Jets are taking back more than is required. While the both the quarterback and running back situation in New York remains a mystery, this is a team that knows how to win in Orchard Park. As mentioned, the Jets swept the Bills in the regular season series in 2016 and with that the Jets may have some confidence heading into this meeting. Though the Jets may be projected to own the top draft selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, all teams are 0-0 in Week 1. The Bills have a lot more to lose in this game than the Jets do. For New York, they will come into this game free-rolling. Basically, the Jets know that if they lose that was what was expected of them. If they win, it’s a feather in their cap. As a result, Buffalo will enter this game with far more pressure and thus they should not be trusted with the amount of points they are asking takers to spot here. This market sets up a great fade opportunity.

It would be tough to go against New England on any occasion at home let alone a prime time Thursday night slot as the defending Super Bowl Champions. Some key losses on both team’s offense combined with a pair of defenses that know how to keep opposing teams out of the end zone sets up a golden opportunity to bet the UNDER in this game on the current 48-point total line.

I just don’t see the Bengals wanting this game as much. It looks like they’ll be shorthanded at LB and last week they had no answer for the Chiefs run attack. The Redskins offensive line hasn’t opened up the holes for the running game, but this was a good unit last season and could easily get in sync in Week 3. If Washington can get a running game going they can shred this defense today. Lay the points.

Normally in the Seahawks preseason games there is an obvious edge in the motivation of the head coaches, but in my opinion, that isn’t the case here. The Chiefs have the edge in talent depth at most of the key offensive positions. You could argue that with Russell Wilson the Hawks have the stronger QB play, but the one-two punch of Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes has looked better than the Russell/Boykin tandem. Add in the fact that not only did Seattle lose their starting LT George Fant, they don’t have anyone on paper that looks ready to take over his spot. I expect with the protection issues that HC Pete Carroll will limit Russell’s game time and if that happens the wrong team is favored here.

This is an easy call for me. The coaches have both gone on record saying that the offensive starters will play a half or more tonight. Each team is dealing with some defensive injuries and their lack of depth should lead to improved scoring for the backups. Note: Matt McGloin is 4th in passing yards this preseason with 336.

I like the Bills here. The home field advantage and the extra motivation the new coaching staff should bring makes this an easy call.

The revolving door in the NFC South is poised to turn again with a run by the Saints to the top of this division. Unlike the past two seasons, this race should remain much tighter in 2016, but New Orleans going 10-6 should be enough to claim the crown.

The only question in this division race is can Arizona regain the form that led to a 13-3 record and a NFC West title in 2015, but my immediate answer would be no. There is no real value in betting on Seattle’s -260 odds to win this division, but by default I have the Seahawks remaining at the top of this division in 2017.

The big question any bettor has to ask themselves in this matchup is will the game be a case of “unfinished business” against “happy to be here” or can both teams play to the level of their capabilities. Atlanta can beat New England SU on a neutral field, but this works to really test your confidence level when it comes to the Falcons actually getting it done.

I will be the first one to admit just how stunned I was with how easy Atlanta disposed of Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but getting past New England with everything on the line is a whole other story. I decided to jump all over the Patriots as three point favorites in a spread that is very likely to widen two weeks from now when this game is actually played.

Pittsburgh had a hiccup after last week’s game as Brown took to social media in the latest rendition of, “Look at me, I’m a millennial!” HC Mike Tomlin has addressed that and don’t expect it to be a distraction this week. The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS as a playoff road underdog but Brady is 15-3 SU at home in the playoffs. Something has to give and I think it will be the Patriots defense. Bell presents a unique challenge in that if you gang up on him, Brown can make you pay deep. Bell is also great as a receiver and Roethlisberger has been on this stage before and come through. New England made Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler look bad last week but he is no Roethlisberger. I feel Pittsburgh can keep this game close and stay within the number behind Bell and their playmaking defense.

This is a dream matchup between two of the top passing quarterbacks in the league. While it looks like Green Bay will still be without Nelson for Sunday afternoon, Rodgers has already proved that he can get the ball to a number of different targets. Atlanta does appear to be all that concerned about Jones’ foot injury, so its potent passing game should remain at full strength.

It is rare to see such a high total line (60 points) for a NFL game, but the bookmakers had to set it that high to try and move some money towards the UNDER. I am not biting on that one with a “best bet” play on the OVER all the way.

Betting against Pittsburgh right now probably does not make all that much sense in the midst of this impressive winning streak, but Kansas City is not about to roll over and die this Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are also in excellent form and looking to advance to the conference title game following last season’s tight loss to New England in the Divisional Round.

This Sunday’s game remains too close to call in my book, but I do like the play on the UNDER with the total line sitting at 45. It is January in Kansas City and I think both defenses are going to elevate their play to keep this a low-scoring affair.

This game is yet another rematch as all 4 divisional encounters are rematches from earlier in the year. I dare say this Packers club is a much better group than the one Dallas saw several months ago. Rodgers is playing out of his mind while the defense has allowed an average of 18 ppg during their current 7-game winning streak. Green Bay has also played well against teams that qualified for the playoffs this season (5-1-1 ATS, their lone loss to Dallas) and has basically been playing playoff-calibre football for the last 2 months. The Cowboys were one of the 2 best teams in the NFL this season (along with the Patriots) and are looking to break a 20-year pattern of poor playoff performances (2-8 SU since 1996). Elliott and Prescott were spectacular during the season but they are still rookies and have had 2 weeks to think about this game. I don’t expect either player to be overcome with the jitters but playoff football is a different animal. I’m going to take the points and Rodgers and think Green Bay can keep this game close or win it outright.

Houston’s defense played well last week and set up the offense with advantageous field position. I think they can stay with the Patriots offense (to a degree) and will make Brady work for everything he gets. I don’t have confidence that Osweiler will be able to solve the New England defense and therefore believe the Under is the way to go in this one. The Texans have been under the number in their last 7 games and 9 of their last 10. Four of the last 6 Patriots games have also been under the number. I fully expect NE to win this game but 16 points scares me. I do like the fact that both defenses are amongst the league’s best and see them having a major say in how this game turns out.

This NFL Divisional Round matchup comes down to Seattle’s shutdown defense going up against the most potent offensive attack in the league. Atlanta has the advantage with the fast track in front of the home-town crowd, but the Seahawks gain an important edge with their past experience in postseason play.

The line has already moved from 3.5 points to 4.5 points in Atlanta’s favor and that could make all the difference in the world in what I see as a very tight showdown between two of the top teams in the NFC. With the wider spread on the betting board, give me the points and Seahawks in what could easily be a three-point game either way.

This is definitely the marquee matchup of the NFL’s Wild Card Round. The only bad part of this situation is that one of these teams will be eliminated since both have the ability to make a deep run this year. I also think that both of these quarterbacks will come to play this Sunday afternoon in a game that should remain highly entertaining for all four quarters.

It will be tough for the Giants to come away with the straight-up win in such a tough place to win in January, but I think it will be rather easy for both teams to score enough points to take the total well OVER the current 44.5-point betting line.

Pittsburgh’s last 4 games have produced 47, 44, 58 and 51 points. While they can be explosive on offense, their defense can be beaten by good offenses. Miami’s last 6 games have produced an average of 50.5 ppg as their offense has continued to produce in the absence of Tannehill but their defense has also been susceptible to giving up their share of points. While I think the spread (10 points) may be a bit high, I think the Over is the way to go. Both teams have offensive weapons that can exploit their opponent’s defensive weaknesses and I expect a high-scoring affair at Heinz Filed this weekend.

Four of the past 5 games Seattle have played in reached 47 points or more as the defense has had trouble containing opposing offenses in the absence of Thomas. The Seahawks scored 24+ points in 4 of those games as their offense can still put up their share of points. Detroit’s last 2 games have produced 63 and 55 points as they had trouble with the Cowboys and Packers’ offenses. The Seahawks offense may be a step down in class from those 2 teams but with Wilson’s ability to scramble and make plays on the move, I expect them to give the Lions all they can handle. Conversely, I expect Stafford to move the ball through the air consistently against this defense. Seattle has lost 1 home game this season and has a 9-game home-winning streak going in the playoffs. Despite that, I’ll go with the Over in this one as I expect a spirited high-scoring affair between these 2 clubs.

It is easy to see why the total line for this game has been set so low given the dire situation at quarterback for both teams. I would still be tempted to go with the UNDER as a viable play in what will most likely be a four-quarter grinder that ends up getting decided by a field goal.

Even with Carr out of the lineup, I see Oakland as the better overall team in this matchup. The Raiders lack of experience in the postseason is somewhat of a concern, but Houston has hardly been a juggernaut in its past three appearances in the playoffs. Take the three points and take Oakland to cover in this one.

Green Bay has all the momentum in the world on its side against a Lions’ team looked very ordinary against the Cowboys on Monday night. Add in the fact that Rodgers is probably playing his best ball of the year and that makes it even harder for Detroit to bounce back on a short week.

This spread will probably continue to grow as we get closer to game time, so I am going to lock things up at Green Bay minus the 3.5 points as my “best bet” pick.