Expert Baseball Picks
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We'll give Milwaukee the edge in the pitching match-up for Thursday, and the Brewers are tough at home. Plus, they're getting the underdog price. We like Milwaukee for our free MLB pick for Thursday.
Crash Davis once said “never fuck with a winning streak,” and Houston is riding a helluva streak. So we're going with Crash's advice in this spot. And knowing that the Astros will bat nine times we have no qualms about giving the run and a half against the MLB run line.
Peralta is a Jekyll-and-Hyde case; he can dominate for eight innings as he did two starts ago, or he can struggle to get out of the fourth inning, like last time out. We just don't know what we're going to get out of him any given outing. Also, we'll give St. Louis short edges at the moment with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Cardinals are getting the underdog price.
Some signs point toward Los Angeles for this game, hence, apparently, the line and the movement. But the Dodgers are cold, with six straight losses, and we're never afraid of betting against the flow. We're going with the Brewers and the value here at the underdog price.
We give Houston the check marks in the pitching match-up and the bullpen comparison. Also, the Astros are hot, while we believe Seattle's been playing a bit over its head so far this season. So we're betting Houston Saturday. But we don't like that price, so we'll chase a better one and give the run and a half on the MLB run line.
We give Atlanta short edges in the pitching match-up and in the bullpen comparison, so we're going with the Braves, the home team at the short price, for our free MLB pick for Friday.
This game sets up as a play on St. Louis on the MLB streak betting theory, but we do not always abide by that. Maeda is perfectly capable of out-pitching Flaherty, and while LA struggled mightily with RISP the first two games of this series, we expect a little better luck Wednesday.
Washington roughed up Nola last week, but we expect a bounce-back effort Tuesday night. And that Nats bullpen is struggling. We're going with Philadelphia for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.
Chacin was the rock of the Milwaukee rotation last season, and he's continuing in that role this season with a pair of wins already. And we like this Brewers lineup. So we're betting Milwaukee Monday for our free MLB pick.
The Royals Brad Keller gets the start today, and he's been fantastic this year with a 2.08 earned run average and 0.92 WHIP. Admittingly two games is a small sample size, but dating back to last season he has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last ten and two or fewer runs in eight of the ten starts. Today he faces a Tigers club that he has success against last season and a club that has struggled to put up runs on starting pitching all season. The Royals have done an OK job at the plate this season, but Detroit’s starter Tyson Ross has owned them with a .136 career batting average in two starts, and the pen has been good with a 3.00 ERA this season.
Houston's been scuffling a bit out of the gate this season, but perhaps Friday's victory will provide a spark. Meanwhile, Brooks is coming off a fantastic effort his first time out, but we're still dubious of a guy who entered this season with a career ERA over six.
Milwaukee is hot, Chicago is not, and that's really all we need to know for this game. Also, while early betting action leaned toward the Cubs, we never have a problem going against the flow. We're betting the Brew Crew here.
The Dodgers have erupted for 55 runs in seven games and have surpassed four runs in five of those contests. Rockies starter Tyler Anderson didn't look good on the road in his opener, and he did get roughed up by the Dodgers last time he started at home against them back in September last season. Anderson has a history of starting the season slow, so I'm not expecting a significant rebound effort today.
The host Rockies bats were cold as ice scoring a combined two runs in their last four games and come into this match ranked 25th in batting average with a putrid .197 mark. They’ve certainly didn’t get to Maeda last season, 19 IP, 5 ERs over three starts but his worst outing of was in Colorado where he gave up three runs over 5 1/3 frames allowing nine base runners. Maeda continued to give up the long ball in his first test this campaign a problem that he had at the end of last season and Coors Field is not the place to try and remedy it.
Most signs point toward Los Angeles here, and the line on this game reflects that. But Texas is off to the much better start, and hot-vs.-cold always means something when handicapping baseball. So we're going with the value here and the Rangers.
Wednesday's pitching match-up looks pretty even, but we give St. Louis short edges with the sticks and in the bullpen. So we're taking the underdog price with the Cardinals for our free MLB pick here.
Tampa has won four games in a row, while Colorado has lost three straight, so this game sets up as a double play on the MLB streak betting theory. However, we don't always abide by that method. Snell may bounce back after his iffy effort last week but "Cy Young" often brings with it inflated prices. And we won't usually get Freeland at such an excellent underdog price. We're going with the value here and betting the Rockies.
The Red Sox have gotten off to a great start in this series winning the first two games at home and are riding a six-game win streak. In the five home games for L.A, in this post-season, they only gave up seven runs, and four of those came in the one loss with Buehler on the hill in that game giving up all four runs. That said, on the season Buehler has been brilliant at home with a 2.20 ERA and excellent 0.84 WHIP. Porcello did not have the sharpest of last outings but got a lot of help from the lineup in the 8-6 win. The Boston starter lasted just five innings and hadn't completed six or more innings in his last nine outings. The Boston bullpen has been ultra-sharp allowing one earned run in the first two games, but they have worked eight innings and may start to show some cracks if they have to come in early for Porcello.
The Red Sox have won five in a row and have to feel good about their Game 1 win knocking around Dodgers’ Ace Clayton Kershaw. Andrew Benintendi had four hits in the game, J.D. Martinez had two RBI, and pinch-hitter Eduardo Nunez hit a three-run HR. Boston's offense led the Majors in runs scored, and they have been getting it done at the dish in their five-game win streak. Price was lights out in his previous game, finally getting his first playoff win and I expect him to win the battle of the starters tonight. I'll lay the money.