College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Texas is the hotter team at the moment, but Kansas has been playing a brutal schedule. Also, the Jayhawks are probably the better defensive team in this match-up. Also, Kansas might be ripe for a bounce-back effort here, following a poor one last time out. They’re probably favored by a bucket too much, but we’ll give the points and take the Jayhawks.
I like Michigan State here. The Spartans have lost four of their last six games, but that stretch of games was one of the toughest of any teams this season. They're rested now and catching 4.5 points in a game. I think they have a realistic shot of winning in what should be a low-scoring, close game.
San Diego State got out-played and out-shot Tuesday night against Nevada; we expect a bounce-back effort Friday night. Also, the Aztecs are one of the very best defensive teams in the country. Meanwhile, Boise State might be down a couple of starters. We’re giving the points with San Diego State here.
Both these teams are playing a lot of close games recently, including their own overtime battle. They’re also very similar statistically. Also, they’re both +1 PPG against common opponents! Also, with this game in Lawrence Kansas State is probably catching an extra 3-4 points on the spread. We’ll take the Wildcats plus those points Tuesday night.
I don't like siding with the public, but I think that they're on the right side of the line today. Iowa is very strong at home with only two losses, and while one was as a -31 fav to EIU, the other was to Ohio State in overtime. They've won and covered their other three Big Ten home games, and I believe it will be four after today's match.
It's been all about defense for the Wildcats. After a wake-up call with back-to-back losses to Alabama and South Carolina, UK has gone on a four-game streak that started with a confidence-building 63-56 road win over the Vols. They've kept three of their last four opponents to 67 or fewer points. The team that surpassed that number was Georgia, who capitalized on the swollen heads of Kentucky (game after the shocking win over Ten), scoring 42 points in the first half before being held to 29 in the second half. The Jayhawks can play defense (39.4 FG % on the road), but they've been having issues with fouls committing 20.3 over the losing streak. They should get that cleaned up today. I'm forecasting a 70-65 type game.
This is more of a feel play. TCU is a little banged up. They return home to accolades after the Jayhawks slaying and could easily be a little too full of themselves. The Sooners are just 1-3 in true road games, but three of the four losses were by four or fewer points.
The Cardinals are just an awful team. They’ve been getting blown in the first half in recent games, and I think that’s the best bet tonight.
Many of the key metrics favor the Sun Devils, but their body of work on the road certainly isn't impressive. They were defeated by 2-13 Texas Southern and suffered a blowout 37-point loss to San Francisco with wins over a mediocre Colorado team and 6-11 SMU. Oregon has had some sketchy losses in recent games but looked good on the road in Utah, but this is more of a play against the Sun Devils.
Northwestern isn’t going to outshoot many teams from the field, but they can get to the line and get their points that way. Which is exactly what I think happens against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights haven’t crossed 65 points in their last three games and may need to surpass that tonight to get by the Wildcats. The over is tempting, but I think the spread offers more value.
The Jayhawks have crushed the opposition at home, going 9-0 and outscoring the opposition 81.5 to 62.7. The recent history in this series versus the spread has the public siding with Oklahoma, but I think that is what keeps Kansas fully focused tonight. The Sooners are off a tough game on Saturday with a huge defensive effort (or were the Red Raiders flat from their loss to Kansas) to win in OT 68-63. Either way, I'm laying the double-digit spread, backing the home side, and counting on the Jayhawks D coming up big.
This is a massive spread. I won't lay it, and I don't like Syracuse enough to take the points. The Cavs have a significant edge in three-point shooting and have stepped it up in their last two games. If those shots can continue to fall, I think that we should be able to fade the line move and get the money on the Over. Take the OVER 126
The Longhorns (-3.5) showed a lot of grit battling for the slim 1-point win on the road in Oklahoma on New Year's Eve. The Longhorns haven't been a bettor's best friend as of latefailing to cover the spread in six of their last eight games. They have a good shot to start an upward trend tonight. They face a KSU team that may be a little too full of themselves after coming back from a large early deficit and prevailing 82-76 in overtime on Saturday. Texas is the better shooting team. They play better defense and can trash KSU on the boards.
I'm taking the points in this one. Memphis has played the much tougher schedule, but USF has won six of their last seven and did beat decent clubs in UMass and Hofstra and lead a good Auburn team at the half before falling by just eight points. Sure, Memphis did beat the very same Auburn team by nine, but they're really beat up now, and I just don't see them putting up enough points to distance themselves and making the Under bet also a solid play.
Alabama has played a much tougher schedule, but Mississippi State has just one loss on the season, and it did come against a quality opponent. The Bulldogs have played exceptional defense, albeit versus the lower SOS, holding every opponent to 66 or fewer points. They have the No. 3 scoring defense and the sixth-ranked FG % defense and may be able to slow down the Bama offense, similar to what Houston did.