NFL Dog Of The Week Picks
If you’re looking for our NFL dog of the week picks you’ve landed on the right page. Each week throughout the pro football season we’ll give out one to three of our top underdog plays. Our team of handicappers digs deep into the numbers and the injury reports looking for the games where we believe that we hold an over the lines maker. So rest assured these are not some throw the dart against the board and hope for the best. These are highly researched opinions against the spread that we believe give our visitors a great chance to pad their bankrolls. Bookmark this page and return throughout week as we add additional suggested wagers.
We'll start posting our underdog ATS predictions in the afternoon of Thursday Sept 8. Keep in mind that we may add suggested wagers up until 12:00 PM ET on Sunday of each week.
It’s the Tom Brady show this time around and that’s a massive step up from rookie QB Jacoby Brissett who led the Patriots to a 27-0 victory over the Texans in their earlier meeting. That said, it’s also a different Houston defense that he will face. One that has really come together as the season has progressed. Houston didn’t allow a team to pass for 300 yards this season or 400 combined yards in a game. Their run defense has been exceptional over their last 10 games allowing fewer than 100 yards in 8 of the games and a high of 109. Look for the Texans to stay within two touchdowns. Play on the Houston Texans +15
Wild Card Round
Wild Card dog of the week: NY Giants +5 Loss
Point spread dogs of the week: Browns +4 Won and Bears +6 Lost
The Raiders pass rush will provide a big test for the Colts’ young offensive line, but we believe they’ll be up to the test. Indianapolis has allowed a total of two sacks in their last three games and part of that credit has to do with their newfound running game. The Colts have racked up 383 yards on the ground in their last three games and will look to continue that success against a Raiders run defense that has allowed their opponent to run for over 100 yards 9 times this season. Indianapolis comes into this game off four consecutive road wins beating Tennessee 34-26, Green Bay 31-26 and the NY Jets 41-10 before trouncing Minnesota 34-6. On the season they’re 4-3 as a visitor losing their first three road games by a total of 10 points. The Raiders have won 10 of their last 12 games with the two losses coming against Kansas City. Here’s the thing. Oakland QB Derek Carr hasn’t taken direct snaps since hurting his pinkie and he hasn’t had much success from the shotgun throwing for a combined total of 309 yards in his last two games. This would be a tough game for the Raiders with Carr healthy and with that in doubt makes this an easy play for us. Play on the Indianapolis Colts +4 Lost
NFL Week 15 Dog of the Week picks against the spread: Tennessee +6 Won , Bears +4.5 Won and Carolina +7 Won.
These NFC North rivals battled each other back on October 2nd in Chicago where the Bears came away the victors winning 17-14. Chicago had a large edge in yardage in that game accumulating a combine 408 yards on 294 passing yards by backup QB Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard contributed 111 on the ground. They won’t have Hoyer behind center, but third string QB Matt Barkley has surprised with two decent starts and if not for a dropped pass late in the Tennessee game he would be riding a two-game winning streak.
Detroit keeps getting it done with a four-game win streak including two wins on the road in Minnesota and New Orleans. Their defense has shone holding all four opponents well under 100 yards on the ground, but they weren’t facing much in the run game and they’ll be tested on Sunday. The Lions have struggled all season rushing relying on Matthew Stafford’s arm to move the ball. That may be a problem against the Bears. Chicago held Stafford to under 200 yards passing which has been a strength for Chicago who ranks a quality 5th in passing yards allowed this season. The Lions have played a lot of close ones this season with only last week’s 28-13 win over the Saints margin of victory exceeding this week’s assigned point spread.
Play on the Chicago Bears +7.5 Won
Week 13 Top Underdog Plays: Houston +7 -115 Lost, Jacksonville +4 -115 Lost
Week 12 Dogs of the Week: Cleveland +7 Lost and Tampa Bay +6 Won.
The Jaguars problem has been turnovers currently tied for fourth in the league with 19 and what makes it worse is that they don’t generate turnovers from their opponents trailing the league with five takeways. The good news is that they face a team nearly as inept in causing turnovers with a meagre six on the campaign. If Jacksonville can even stay close in that statistic they have a good chance here. Their defense has been outstanding all season allowing a fifth best 5.0 yards per play on an eighth best 327.7 yards per game. The Jags have held all but two opponents to 207 yards or fewer and the only cracks them have shown is in the run defense that has allowed a 29th ranked 124 yards per game. More good news for the Jaguars is the Lions haven’t had any success running the ball this season ranking 27th in the league in yards per game and have failed to reach 100 yards in seven consecutive games. The points are very generous in this spot on a very live visitor who could upset. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars +6Lost
The Chargers have a top flight run defense, but the Dolphins proved last week that they can run on anyone amassing 137 yards against the Jets impressive run stop unit. Miami has had all of their offensive line starters for three games this season and won all three running for a combined 615 yards! The value lies with the visitor here. Play on the Miami Dolphins +4.5. Won
This is a sandwich game for the Cowboys after getting the overtime win over divisional foe Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on deck. Dallas also comes into this game with injuries in the secondary with CB Claiborne and S Church both out. The Browns have played a lot of teams tight this season and that extra half point on the line has us taking the home side in this contest. Play on the Cleveland Browns +7.5Lost
Sorry no analysis this week.
Week 8 Dog Plays: San Diego +3.5 Lost and Indianapolis +3 Lost.
Sure the Bills are on a roll winners of four straight games and leading the league in rushing with a very impressive 166.3 yards per game. This week they take on a Miami team that ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with an average of 147. So why are we not all over the Bills? Buffalo hasn’t played much. They caught the Cardinals and Rams with banged up defensive lines and San Francisco is just plain awful at defending the run. Against the Patriots the Bills ran for 134 yards on 32 carries for a decent 4.18 yards per carry but the Pats were playing with an injured third string QB and the defense was on the field all day. Another reason to downgrade Buffalo here is the No. 2 RB in the league this season RB LeSean McCoy is doubtful for this game leaving possibly Mike Gillislee as the main man this week. The visitor will also be thin at receiver with current No. 1 WR Robert Woods unlikely to play. Miami came alive last week on offense with 30 points on 474 yards playing with all their starters on the OL for the first time this season and with their opponents’ expected lack of playmakers available in Week 7 we’ll back the home dog in this spot. Play on the Miami Dolphins +2.5Won
More Week 7 Picks: We may add additional selections up until noon ET on Sunday.
The Bears offense even with all of their injuries, have been able to move the ball well ranking No. 2 in yards per play, but they haven’t been able to capitalize with an atrocious 21.9 yards per point scoring average. They’ll have a tall task against the Jags who have been excellent at limiting their opponent’s yardage per play this season allowing a 6th ranked 4.7. Offensively Jacksonville’s body of work hasn’t been impressive, but they are coming off of their best outing by far this season racking up 522 yards against the Colts in England. On paper the depth charts going into this match show a massive edge for the visitor who may have finally hit their stride overseas and come into this game rested. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars +2Won
Most bettors have been running to the window to get down on the Viks this week and why not? The Vikings have road an aggressive defense that creates turnovers and a sound offensive game plan that limits the risk of turning the ball over to a 4-0 record straight up and against the line. They lead the league with a +10 turnover margin while their Week 5 opponent is the proud owner of a 25th ranked -3 on the campaign. Easy money? Not likely. The Texans are expecting LB Brain Cushing back which would be a big boost physically and mentally to a defense that has already lost All World DE JJ Watt. The Vikings have a lot of negatives going into in to this game. Their offensive line is a mess losing their starting LT Matt Kali earlier in the season and now they’ll be missing their RT Andre Smith. They’re also likely to be without their best WR Stefon Diggs who is dealing with a groin injury. Add in the short week going against Minnesota and we’ll take the visitor getting a healthy number of points versus an undermanned host. Play on the Houston Texans +6.5Lost
The Colts said that they have done everything in their power to make the adjustment to playing in England as minimal as possible. No matter how that works out for them you have to give the edge to the Jaguars who will be playing for the fourth straight year at Wembley and broke through with a win last season over the Bills. That said, we’d like Jacksonville no matter where this game was played. The Colts come into this game with two offensive lineman banged up and they may have to go with two rookies on the line. The Jags offense didn’t look sharp last week against the Ravens underrated unit, but they were missing starting left tackle Kelvin Beachum who is set to return. They scored 55 last season on the Indy defense and while we don’t expect them to duplicate that number, we don’t think they will have any difficulty getting their share of points. The Jags make it two in a row at Wembley Stadium. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5Won.
More plays: That's it for the week.
The Giants have done a good job defensively this season allowing 16 to the Saints and 20 to the Cowboys which is a big turnaround from last season’s 30th ranked 27.6 point per game. Their offense however needs some work. They were fortunate in Dallas making the best of their 316 total yards to get the one-point victory and last week they got 353 yards through the air against the New Orleans battered secondary, but mistakes had them in a battle until the last minute. They’ll face a Washington team that doesn’t appear to have improved their run defense, but that hasn’t been the Giants strength. The Redskins do have a solid secondary that we believe should be able to contain the Giants receivers. We don’t think that the host will have the same success defending the deep set of receivers that Washington can put on the field. QB Kirk Cousins has been erratic and was fully to blame for their loss last week, but he turned it around last season after a slow start and we think that will be the case in Week 3. Play on the Washington Redskins + 3.5Won 29-27
Other dogs we like are Minnesota +6.5 Won 22-10 and Indianapolis +1 Won 26-22.
Passing this week.
Don’t get us wrong. We don’t believe that the Chargers’ offensive line is up there with the top units in the league. However, what they’ll be starting in Week 1 is far superior to last season’s injury plagued OL that saw them use 24 different line combinations. The return of WR Keenan Allen and the signing of speedy wide out Travis Benjamin should put this offense up there with the best of them. Play on San Diego +7 -120 Won
Other dogs we like: Washington +3 -105 Lost and Jacksonville +5 -110 Won. Please check back later.