NFL Moneyline Picks
That’s right. We’re going to give out weekly NFL money line picks. The NFL money line is often overlooked by handicappers based on the high lines that you have to lay on the favored team. Rookie bettors have blown out their bankrolls backing the -300 “can’t lose” favorite. Our approach for the most part is the polar opposite backing mostly dogs and in rare situations we’ll give out a pick on a small favorite.
Here’s some math to consider. A -3 point spread favorite will correlate to a -155 favorite on the money line depending on the sportsbook. The underdog at +3 would be a +135 favorite on the money line. A bettor taking the favorite in this scenario over a 100 game span with a winning percentage of 60% would be down two units over the sample size based on a uniform wager. A bettor who did the opposite winning 45% of his ML underdog wagers over a 100 game span would be up 0.75 Units.
Our prognosticators have many seasons under their belt and while every week won’t show a profit, rest assured that this team will be giving it their all. We’ll have good and bad weeks throughout the NFL season, but it would be in your best interest to play our predictions throughout the season, because in the end we expect the returns to be profitable.
No plays this week.
Week 16 Suggested Money Line Wagers : Indianapolis +185 Lost
Week 15 Moneyline Bets: Cincinnati +158 Lost
Week 14 Moneyline Bets: San Diego -105 Lost and Buffalo +130 Lost and Rams +195 Lost.
Week 13 Moneyline Plays: Indianapolis -130 Won.
Week 12 Money Line Picks: Tampa Bay +210 Won
Week 11 Money Line Picks: Buffalo Bills +130. Won
Week 10 Money Line Picks: Los Angeles Rams -105. Won
Week 9 Money Line Picks: Tennessee +170 Lost and Indianapolis +255 Won.
Week 8 Money Line Picks: Cleveland +120 Lost
Week 7 Money Line Picks: Miami +120 and Tampa Bay -105. More plays may be added up until 12 PM ET on Sunday.
Week 6 Money Line Picks: Jaguars +115 Won, Rams +140 Lost, Miami +275 Won and Atlanta + 220 Lost.
Week 5 Moneyline Picks: Sorry no analysis. Houston +225 Lost and Tennessee +155. Won
Nothing appeals to us from a value stand point this week. There is always a chance that we may add something after the inactives come out late Sunday morning.
The Chargers have played well enough to win in both games losing only in overtime to the Chiefs in Week 1. Indianapolis hasn’t and they fully deserve to be 0-2 on the season. That said, we’re going to back the Colts here. If you thought last season was bad on the injury front for San Diego, this one is worse. After just two games they’ve lost their best WR Kennan Allen, pass catching RB Danny Woodman for and extensive period of time and their top TE Antonio Gates is doubtful for Week 3. They just don’t have many weapons left. WR Travis Benjamin stepped up last week with six catches for 115 yards but you’d have to think that with the return of shut down corner Vontae Davis to the roster that he should be able to limit the damage. QB Andrew Luck has been listed as questionable all week, but he practiced in full on Friday and should be good to go. Luck threw for 368 in Week 1 last time at Lucas Oil Stadium and we expect numbers in that range this week against a defense that has allowed over 300 aerial yards in both games this season. Play on the Indianapolis Colts -120 Won 26-22
The Packers will be playing back to back games on the road. They were fortunate to come away with the 27-23 victory last week against the Jaguars who out-yarded them in the loss. The Vikings had their defense come up big for two scores in their 25-16 road win over the Titans. The offense struggled with Shaun Hill at the helm who completed just 18 of 33 pass attempts for 236 yards against an average Tennessee defense. In steps QB Sam Bradford to take over which should be a big step up from Hill. Bradford looked really good over the last third of the season in Philly making smart decisions and hitting all of his throws. He’ll face a defense that will be without arguably their best corner this week and should be able to do enough in the Vik’s opener to help them secure a win in their home opener. Play on the Minnesota Vikings + 110 Won (17-14)
The Bucs won both meetings last season including a 23-20 victory in Atlanta as an 8-point dog. Tampa Bay comes into this game pretty healthy, but that’s not the case for the Atlanta. The Falcons are beat up in the secondary with CB Jalen Collins suspended and starting strong safety Keanu Neal out and his back up Kemal Ishmael questionable. Key Stat: The Buccaneers had a league leading 69 starts by rookies last season, so an improvement over last season is a logical expectation. The value is on the road team here.
Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +115 Won (31 -24)