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Thursday Dec 08, 2022

The Raiders actually still have something to play for, the Rams, but not so much. Also, Las Vegas rides a hot offensive pairing with RB Jacobs and WR Adams, while Los Angeles is without its starting QB, WR Kupp and DT Donald. Also, the Raiders own the better "performance vs. common opponents" this season. Teams that win the game outright in the NFL this season are covering at an 84 percent clip, so we like Vegas minus the points here.

Free Pick: 
Take Las Vegas - 6
Monday Dec 05, 2022

Tampa Bay doesn't even try to run the ball at times these days, instead choosing to rely on a 45-year-old quarterback. How's that working out? The Bucs are averaged 18 points per game. New Orleans isn't great offensively either, but at least it's a little more balanced. Also, the Saints have played Tampa and Brady tough over recent seasons. Also, believe it or not, after getting shut out last week, we expect a bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. We like the Saints plus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take New Orleans +3
Sunday Dec 04, 2022
Miami ranks No. 3 in the League in total offense, although just 28th in rushing and 17th in total defense. San Francisco ranks No. 10 in offense and No. 1 in defense. And in match-ups like this, we love betting the team with the better defense. Also, the 49ers are out-rushing opponents by 44 YPG, while the Dolphins are getting out-rushed by 15 YPG. Also, we're thinking San Francisco might win the NFC while we still have some doubts about Miami. We're giving the points with the 49ers Sunday.
Free Pick: 
Take San Francisco -4
Wednesday Nov 30, 2022

Buffalo's won four of the last five meetings between these teams, and the only game it lost came on a bad-weather night last December when throwing the ball was nearly impossible. Also, the Bills are out-rushing opponents this season by 31 YPG, while New England's been held to less than 100 yards on the ground five of its last six times out. Also, while home dogs are covering at a 61 percent rate this season, that sounds like a trend due for a correction. We're betting on Buffalo Thursday night.  

Free Pick: 
Take Buffalo -3.5
Sunday Nov 27, 2022

Tennessee is out-rushing opponents this season by a per-game average of 129-82; Cincinnati is getting out-rushed 117-95. And in the NFL, teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, while the Bengals won this match-up back in January, the Titans basically gave that game away with three crucial Tannehill interceptions. We like Tennessee for Sunday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Titans +2.5
Thursday Nov 24, 2022
Buffalo ranks 2nd in the League in total offense, 13th in total defense and is out-rushing oppo-nents by 27 YPG. Detroit ranks 6th in offense but dead last in defense and is getting out-rushed by 21 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spreads about 65 per-cent of the time. Also, the Bills are 7-3 but could be/should be 8-2 or even 9-1. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-6 but should probably be 3-7, or worse. Also, Buffalo owns the better yardage per-formance against common opponents. Detroit’s a nice story at the moment but we’re betting the Bills Thursday.
Note: Technical issues cause us to post this game late.
Free Pick: 
Take the Bills -9.5
Monday Nov 21, 2022
I think the better-prepared side comes out ahead. San Francisco went to Colorado to train itself at elevation, and Arizona did not. The Cardinals should have a hard dime adjusting to the conditions and the 49ers' strong defense.
That's a bad combination here. Give me the 49ers to cover.
Free Pick: 
Take the 49ers
Sunday Nov 20, 2022
Dallas led its game last week 28-14, then lost. Minnesota trailed its game last week 27-10, then won. But the NFL is a crazy place, where what's up one week is down the next, and vice versa. And that's the vibe this game gives us. The Cowboys should be 7-3, while the Vikings, who have come from behind in the fourth quarter to win five times this season, could be 5-4 or even 4-5. Also, that Minnesota defense seems awfully iffy. We like Dallas for Sunday.
Free Pick: 
Take Dallas -1.5
Monday Nov 14, 2022

Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the League in both total offense and total defense. Half of the Eagles' wins have come by double-digits, and they led the other four games by ten or more, too. Philly owns the much better performance against common opponents this season, and it's out-played Washington three times in a row. Also, the Eagles are probably the healthiest team in the League at the moment. We're giving the points with Philadelphia Monday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take Philadlphia -10.5
Sunday Nov 13, 2022

Off the top, we expect Allen to play for Buffalo Sunday. From there, we expect a rebound effort from the Bills, following a poor one last week, while Minnesota might be ripe for a letdown, following an emotional come-from-behind effort last week. Also, Buffalo owns the better defense. Also, the spread moved in a good direction. We're betting on the Bills Sunday.

Free Pick: 
Take Bufflao -3.5 (Note the line is from Friday when written)
Thursday Nov 10, 2022

Atlanta, playing the better ball as of late, owns the better quarterback situation, the better running game, and the better run defense. Also, the Falcons are out-rushing opponents by 56 YPG, while Carolina is getting out-rushed by 34 YPG. And so far this NFL season, teams that win the ground battles are covering the spread at a 68 percent rate (91-42). It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB for the Panthers; we’re betting on Atlanta, minus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta -3
Monday Nov 07, 2022

Baltimore gets the checkmark in the QB comparison and owns the better run game and run defense. And while the Ravens are having some troubles against the pass, New Orleans is down two of its top receivers. Also, playing on the road means the spread is a bit friendlier. We're betting on Baltimore Monday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take Baltimore
Sunday Nov 06, 2022

Atlanta is out-rushing opponents this season by 49 YPG; Los Angeles is getting out-rushed by 49 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time, which is good enough for us. We’re betting on the Falcons plus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Falcons +3
Thursday Nov 03, 2022
Philadelphia ranks No. 3 in the League in total offense and No. 3 in total defense; Houston ranks No. 31 and No 30. Hurts is playing great ball and the Eagles are out-rushing opponents by 35 yards per game. The Texans barely managed 100 yards of offense last week and got the ball shoved down their throats on defense. Double-digits can be lot to deal with in the NFL but this looks like a real mismatch. We’re giving the points with Philly.
Free Pick: 
Take Philadelphia -13.5
Monday Oct 31, 2022

Cincinnati looks like it’s back on track, following a slow start this season, and while they won’t have Chase, maybe that means they’ll run the ball a little more, which would be a good thing. Cleveland, meanwhile, is just untrustworthy at the moment. The Browns are turning the ball over too much, they can’t stop the run, and they’re losing close games. We’re betting on the Bengals Monday night.

Free Pick: 
Take Cincinnati -
Sunday Oct 30, 2022
New York is out-rushing opponents by 29 yards per game; Seattle is getting out-rushed by 12 YPG. And in the NFL teams that win the ground battles cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, while both teams are banged-up the Seahawks got it worse, and might play without their top two receivers. Also, NFL underdogs have produced a profit each of the last three weeks. We’re taking the Giants and the points here.
Free Pick: 
Take the Giants
Thursday Oct 27, 2022
Baltimore should be 5-2 this season, maybe even 6-1, if not for some terrible prevent defense. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is not the team many thought it was coming into this season. Ultimately, what sells us here is that the Ravens are out-rushing opponents by 51 yards per game while the Buccaneers are getting out-rushed by 54 YPG. And teams that win the ground battles are covering the spread at a 66 percent rate this season. We’re betting Baltimore Thursday night.
Free Pick: 
Take the Baltimore Ravens +2
Monday Oct 24, 2022

Reports indicate New England will go with Jones at QB Monday night, although they might be better with Zappe. The Patriots just beat the Lions and Browns by a combined score of 67-15, and the Bears are no better than either of those teams. New England also owns the much better run defense in this match-up. Meanwhile, Chicago’s scored five offensive touchdowns over its last five games, and QB Justin Fields, who the Bears rely on for so much, got the snot knocked out of him last week. That’s what happens to running QBs in the NFL. Plus, Belichick’s going for the wins record Monday night. We’re giving the points here with the Patriots.  

Free Pick: 
Take New England -9
Sunday Oct 23, 2022
San Francisco only ran the ball for 50 yards last week, but it still owns the better running game in this match-up. And so far this season, teams that win the ground battles are 60-33 SU and 58-33 ATS. Also, the 49ers’ defense ranks No. 1 overall in the League, No. 2 against the run, and No. 2 in points allowed. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s already played four really close games this season, and this looks like another one in the making. We’re betting on San Francisco here, plus the points.
Free Pick: 
Take San Francisco +1.5
Wednesday Oct 19, 2022

We don’t care who plays QB for New Orleans here; we like the Saints’ ground attack, which is averaging 151 YPG, and while they’ve allowed at least 28 points each of their last three times out that’s not really all the defense’s fault. Meanwhile, we have zero faith in Arizona’s ability to win a football game right now. We like New Orleans for the win Thursday night.   

Free Pick: 
Take New Orleans -