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Sunday Jan 30, 2022

San Francisco owns the better running game in this match-up and the better defense, and to us, that’s what playoff football is all about. Also, the 49ers just seem to own the Rams over recent seasons. Also, both these teams just played games last week that came down to field goals, and we won’t be at all surprised if that happens again Sunday. And that’s where 3.5 points would come in really handy. So we like the Niners here, plus the points. They might not even need‘em.

Free Pick: 
Take the 49ers +3.5
Sunday Jan 30, 2022

The best unit on the field Sunday will be the Chiefs offense, with those weapons capable of creating big yardage on any given play. And we don't like the way Cincinnati is running the ball as of late. Also, KC had the Bengals down two scores in the second half about a month ago before giving it way, and we just don't believe they'd let something like that happen again. Also, while the home-field advantage is as low as we can remember - Sagarin's got it at 1.6 points - Arrowhead is a little different and probably worth more. And home favorites own a pretty good betting record over recent conference championship games. So we're giving the points here with Kansas City.  

Free Pick: 
Take the Chiefs
Saturday Jan 22, 2022
Tennessee, even with Henry missing half the season, out-rushed opponents by 56 yards per game while Cincinnati came in at +0. And teams that win the
  ground battles in the NFL cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, the Titans are a
  bit more playoff-tested than the Bengals; this will be their fifth playoff game over the last
  three seasons with Coach Vrabel and QB Tannehill, while for Cincinnati, it’s just their second
  game with Coach Taylor and QB Burrow. So while we don’t like going along with the betting flow,
  we like Tennessee here.
Free Pick: 
Take the Titans minus the points
Sunday Jan 16, 2022
The best unit on the field Sunday night will be the Kansas City offense. Also, while the Chiefs come in at -2 yards per game total rushing Pittsburgh comes in at -53, and that’s not good for playoff football. Also, KC owns the much better record against playoff qualifiers. Also, the Chiefs just kicked the Steelers three weeks ago. They might not win this one by four touchdowns but two would be enough. We’re giving the points here with Kansas City.
Free Pick: 
Take ther Chiefs -12
Saturday Jan 15, 2022

New England runs the ball with its running backs while Buffalo relies heavily on QB Allen. We prefer the Patriots’ way. Also, New England ran the ball down the Bills’ throat in bad weather in that first meeting this season and conditions ain’t supposed to be great Saturday night in Buffalo. Also, following an off-performance last week in Miami we expect better from the Patriots here. We just see this game as something around 20-17 and four points might come in real handy. So we’re taking those points with Belichick’s boys.  

Free Pick: 
Take the Patriots + 4.5
Saturday Jan 15, 2022

We love that Cincinnati offense when RB Joe Mixon is getting touches. Back in that meeting earlier this season between these teams Mixon ran the ball 30 times for 123 yards and two touch-downs, including a late 20-yard spurt that iced the game. The Bengals out-played Las Vegas that day and we expect more of the same Saturday. Also, following that huge emotional win last week we won’t be surprised if the Raiders suffer a letdown this week. So we’re betting Cincinnati here, minus the points.   

Free Pick: 
Take the Bengals -5.5
Sunday Jan 09, 2022

I'm not so sure what to expect from the Seahawks this week. Last week at home might have been their final spurt. Doing it against Detroit at home is different from making it work against an Arizona team trying to win its division, improve their playoff standing, and create some momentum for the playoffs. I'd expect a high-energy output from the Cardinals as they cruise home the winners and cover the spread. I'll take the Cardinals this week.

Free Pick: 
Take Arizona -7
Saturday Jan 08, 2022

Kansas City is still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC while Denver, well, we're not sure what they're playing for. Also, the Chiefs basically got outplayed by the Broncos a month ago, but we don't think that will happen this time. And after blowing last week's game, we expect a rebound effort from KC here. So we're giving the points with the Chiefs.  

Free Pick: 
Take Kansas City -11
Monday Jan 03, 2022

The Steelers are the kind of team that can regularly buck their form in a one-game window. At home, with big stakes against a Cleveland team that is wholly unreliable would appear to be one of those spots. It's just hard to see them getting through 60 minutes with a desperate Cleveland team with those shortcomings not manifesting. The sometimes-dysfunctional depths that this Browns' offense can sink to is a concern, as is the possibility that Roethlisberger just manages to somehow find some answers, but I see the respective calibers of each team's run-game/run-defense surfacing, as the Browns get to the finish line ahead. I'll take the Browns.

Free Pick: 
Take the Browns
Sunday Jan 02, 2022
Miami’s won seven games in a row but who are they beating? Houston, the Jets, Carolina, the
Giants. Not exactly Murderers’ Row. Also, the Dolphins are only averaging 87 yards per game
on the ground. Tennessee, meanwhile, owns wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and 49ers
and is averaging 153 YPG on the ground over its last five games, without Henry! Plus, the best
unit on the field will probably be the Titans defense. We like Tennessee here, minus the points.
Free Pick: 
Take the Titans -3.5
Sunday Dec 26, 2021

This should be a bet one makes with some discomfort. A Rams walloping looms as a distinct possibility. We’ve seen urgency not resonate well before in a lot less-troublesome spots with this Minnesota bunch. Kirk Cousins could put forth a big dud. A defense that can fold at any time, including a secondary that looks to get pushed thin this week could lead to this backfiring. But given the crapshoot appeal of the Rams’ team as a whole, the extra-short week, and a robust task for the LA road-defense is enough to give the Vikings the necessary upside this week to warrant a good look. I’ll take the Vikings and the points at home. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Vikings
Sunday Dec 26, 2021
Baltimore is probably without Jackson for this game, but Huntley is playing well. Also, we’ve
already seen this season the Ravens cover a spread without Jackson, the Browns won a game without Baker Mayfield, Arizona won a couple of games without Kyler Murray. The Packers covered a game without Aaron Rodgers. Also, Cincinnati is only 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS at home this season. We won’t call for the outright upset here, but we’re taking Baltimore plus the points.
Free Pick: 
Take the Ravens
Thursday Dec 23, 2021

San Francisco is hot, Tennessee is not, which means a lot when handicapping this game. The 49ers are running the ball, getting good play at QB, and playing great defense. The Titans, meanwhile, just aren't the same team without Henry. So we like the 49ers here, minus the points.       

Free Pick: 
Take San Francisco -3.5
Tuesday Dec 21, 2021

This could be a game where we see the Seattle team liabilities manifest in a more-vivid way than what we've been seeing. That includes suspect play along both lines of scrimmage, a depreciated run-game, a limited aerial scope for Wilson, along with a defense that might be prime to hit a wall. I suspect the Rams will have an easier time converting production into point-scoring on Tuesday. And on defense, they should get after Wilson with a fervor, while perhaps eliciting some mistakes from the Seattle offense. In the end, I see the Rams laying it on heavy at home and getting to the finish line with the win and cover in week 15.

Free Pick: 
Take the Rams
Monday Dec 20, 2021

At seven losses and with pending matchups against the Packers and Rams, I’m not sure how pertinent the postseason urgency card is here for the Vikings. Maybe it’s on their mind, but then it also would have been on their mind when they lost to Detroit a few weeks ago. Despite both teams having a slew of recent games that sailed far above the “over,” I picture at least a slightly more-subdued offensive game this week. And if not, I’m not so sure the Bears are at as extreme a firepower deficit that some imagine. Whereas we saw a version of Fields earlier in the season who was focusing more on not screwing up, we have arrived at a point of the season where they seem to be letting him turn it loose to a greater degree. In any event, I think the Bears will keep this competitive enough to cover the spread on MNF. I’ll take Chicago.

Free Pick: 
Take Chicago +6
Sunday Dec 19, 2021

 Despite a few subpar performances in recent weeks, Dallas has still been the best team for bettors in the NFL, going 10-3 ATS. Considering the extreme match-up advantages on both sides of the football, I have a hard time believing the Giants can contend in this spot. Simply put, the Cowboys have more reliable paths to a win and cover. As a result, I'm taking the Cowboys -11!

Free Pick: 
Take Dallas -11