Free Weekly CFL Picks Against the Spread

 I originally had this game at -6.5 and bet it at that number, but I do think that there is still value on BC to win and cover the 8 points at home.

Calgary should even the score SU but the best bet in this game is the OVER on the total line.   

Take Winnipeg both SU and ATS to sweep the home-and-home  

The script often flips in football, and I see this as a potential spot for that phenomenon to take place. Last week Edmonton's QB torched the defense, and the opposing QB sealed the deal by throwing picks trying to catch up, exactly the same thing that happened to Harris in Last year's Grey Cup. Hamilton's defense is really good, much better than Montreal's, way better in fact. When I look at the potential outcomes, I don’t see any potential of Edmonton winning this one big, but Hamilton could blow them out. I’m going to fade the last minute back-door cover, which is the most likely way Eskimo backers will cash, and take the squad that has been crushing teams at home all season. Give the -6 and back the Ti-cats.

“Morale is to the physical as three is to one", do you know who said? Napoleon Bonaparte, and there is a lot of truth to that in life, war and football. Montreal has a superior leader in Khari Jones over Edmonton's Jason Mass, and I think even some players on the Eskimos' side realize that. I rarely ever see a team back into the playoffs like Edmonton has and win a big game. The sloppy field conditions favor the "run-and-gun" style of the Als, and everybody “knows” Jason Maas is likely to be fired at season end. Edmonton players don't believe they'll go through the motions on Sunday, but they're waiting for next year. This game, this pick, isn't about scheme, talent, and tactics. It's all about heart, and that's why even though Edmonton is a dangerous team, especially on paper, they won't win the day. Montreal will win this one quite handily, lay the -2 points on the Khari kids.

The way I see this game play-out is the home team overwhelming the visitors in the first half and then phoning it in, in the second half. I hardly ever back losers or bad sides in a funk, but the change at QB has given this RedBlacks team a spark, and let us not forget they played for the Grey Cup last year, so it’s not like they have a bunch of Tomato Cans standing on the sidelines. Ottawa is a wounded animal desperate for a meal, while the Ti-Cats are sitting back with their tummies full. I don’t care what the records are in this one; I'm backing the crazed dog with a lot of fight left, give me the RedBlacks and the +16.5.

Generally my rule of thumb is never pet a burning dog, and the Bombers are on fire right now, but not in a good way. This game means way more to the Bombers than the Alouettes, but this Montreal team keeps showing up regardless. The Als have proven this year they can beat any team anywhere and this week is no different, since this game might be played in slushy conditions, and the Bombers are for sure going to throw the sink at them, I don't like the Als on the ML, but the +3.5 gives me the warm and fuzzies.

Oddly enough BC hasn't been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, actually with their wins over Ottawa they just need to catch Edmonton for the cross-over spot. Realistically though BC is going to be playing for pride. You are what your record says you are, so the Lions will be playing with a big chip on their shoulder for the rest of the season trying to prove they're not hot garbage. Montreal is in no threat of being overtaken in the standings and will probably ride this one out. After the Al's previous miracle win against Calgary they came out a little flat against a Toronto team that should've beat them soundly, but it was Toronto and Montreal again came back and won. I think this week in BC the magic runs out; there is a limit to everything, especially in football. Mike Rielly and Company will not lose to a rookie QB at home when the Als fall behind on Saturday things are more likely to unravel than anything else. Shiltz will have to push the ball downfield and inevitably make a costly mistake. I'm going with the veteran QB and the re-vamped O-line to win big at home, lay the -5.5.

Overall I think Winnipeg is the team better positioned to win this week by virtue of their outstanding defense as well as their overall continuity in key positions/groups, but I noticed something concerning about their play early in the season. They don’t seem to respect and or prepare for Eastern teams on the road, and I can’t really blame them. Winnipeg is the best team in the league (arguably), but they only win when they want to. I don’t see them caring that much this week about the 6-5 Als. Another chink in the Bombers armor is that offense, I’ve seen it stall with Matt Nichols under center as well as Chris Streveller. The Bombers are a really solid team, but they’re not invincible. I like a motivated Alouettes team with a healthy starting QB to outlast and most importantly outscore the Bombers. Take the home dogs on the moneyline.

When I first looked at this line, I thought it was out-of-whack, a 9-2 division-leading team that won the last match-up almost a touchdown pooch. That didn't seem right, but if you watched Calgary dominate a pretty good football team in the Edmonton Eskimos the previous couple of weeks you'd know where that number comes from. Hamilton needed two scores on Special teams last time around to stay in the game, that won't happen again, and these comebacks they've been launching in the second half against 1-9 teams will fall short. Calgary is really clicking on all cylinders right now and will pull away after the first quarter and not look back. This line is a bit out actually, not because it's too high, but because it's too low, if the books are trying to bait me with a half-point I'll swallow the hook and the points. Take the champs to roll big time.

There is a chance of rain on Saturday, but honestly, it doesn't matter that much to me. This game is a basement bowl. It is going to be a low scoring affair between two desperate teams with really good defenses and mediocre offenses. Rain will just make it a little uglier. Having said that I'm going to fade getting caught in the "zig-zag" and take the UNDER again this week. Often I'll take the points in a garbage bowl because they're usually settled by field goals, so if you like to play the spread the points are not a bad wager, but on this occasion, I think the total going UNDER 51.5 is the slightly better bet.