NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

No matter where we turn here there is juice required at any wager. The mere fact the most juice comes on Houston outright or Jacksonville with a point and a half, suggests that the market is extremely sharp in this market and that the books are taking a stance on this game. We want no part of juice but even if Jacksonville were to lose this game, there is more equity in reducing our overhead by 12% taking the Jags outright than playing it safe and taking back a point and a half. Bottom line, Houston has lost three games on the road this year and that is where all their troubles have piled up this season. Jacksonville is hungry for a win and they know they can beat good teams as they took down Indianapolis earlier this year in London. The Jags have also defeated Chicago on the road to name their other win on the year, so this team has a great chance to be a live pooch when none suspect them.

The Packers didn’t seem ready to play last week and Rodgers wasn’t shy about letting everybody know it. They gave up a return TD on the opening kickoff and never recovered. Conversely, the Titans gave up 2 TDs on offense last week and lead the NFL with 7 return TDs allowed. I expect Green Bay to bounce back in this game and for the offense to come in focused. Tennessee’s run defense collapsed last week (208 yards), a bad sign for a team trying to stay in a division race (which they are still in). The Packers know their division is wide open and they can’t afford another letdown this week. The number is less than a FG and I expect Rodgers to be the difference in this contest.

This matchup has the potential to be as exciting as watching paint dry with two of the lowest scoring offenses in the league squaring off against one another. A low-scoring grinder would keep the Browns in this game deep into the fourth quarter, so I would be a bit leery about laying that many points in a division rivalry.

What I do feel good about is a play on the UNDER 45 in a game that will struggle to cross the 40-point mark when it comes to the total score.

Buffalo’s weaknesses on both sides of the ball have been exposed in its last two games and without McCoy in the backfield its biggest strength has been greatly diminished. I have been saying that the Seahawks are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and they proved me right in their last two games.

I would have to lean towards the Seattle getting the SU win on its home field, but when it comes to betting on this game I am going with the UNDER on the current 44-point total line.

Sunday night will be a huge test for Oakland in its effort to finally turn the corner and legitimately compete with Denver for the AFC West title. Unfortunately, the Raiders have been a different team at home verses the one that is undefeated on the road this year.

Given that this game is still on the board as a PICK, I am going with Denver to draw first blood in the season series behind a defense that has the ability to contain Carr and the Raiders’ passing game.

San Diego is 2-1 SU at home with their only blemish being a 35-34 loss to New Orleans. Rivers and the rest of his mates play much better at home and need this win to stay in playoff contention. With their 3 division rivals sitting 6-2, 6-2 and 5-2, they can’t afford a loss to a team on their level. The Titans have proven to be a tough out in 2016 but haven’t defeated a team with a winning record. I think Rivers will bounce back from a poor effort last week and give the Chargers a badly-needed win at home.

This game features two QB-driven teams that are overly reliant on their QBs to produce wins. The Colts o-line simply doesn’t pass protect well enough forcing Luck to scramble or throw ill-advised passes. I look for the Packers defense to give Luck multiple looks and amp up the pass rush to force him into quick decisions. After a slow start, Rodgers has found his groove and always plays well at home. Green Bay is 4-0 SU at home this season and has won every game by 7+ points. If they get a few players back from injury, they should have no problem getting a win and putting pressure on the division-leading Vikings.

During San Francisco’s 6-game losing streak, they have lost 5 games by 12+ points and 4 of them by 17+ points. They just aren’t competitive as they have experienced a huge talent drain over the past few years. New Orleans has scored 25+ points in 5 of their 7 games and I expect them to reach that total again this week. With the number being only a FG, I have no problem backing a Saints team that has won 3 of their last 4 outings.

Though Philly has the psychological edge in this contest, we can’t help but focus on the fact the public is all over a dog. This is a rarity and often spells concern as the favorite, is usually a favorite for a reason. The Giants have done well in this role and home field advantage is a huge part of this rivalry series as both teams bank on the energy of home field to pick up wins. The Eagles have compiled some commendable victories and this is the narrative likely driving the action for many players in this situation. However, MetLife Stadium is a very difficult place to play and given the fact the Eagles struggle on the road this market says stay off Philly. If anything these precepts compel us to spot the home points with Big Blue and fade the public altogether. Look for this contest to be a game of inches as this will likely be a low scoring affair. The Giants offense is not this team’s bread and butter and the only way they can orchestrate the win is if they win on their terms.

This is a game between 2 bad teams that have each won only 3 games. The Rams can’t score and the Jets once solid defense has had issues. Without a top wideout or marquee QB to worry about, I see the New York defense responding in a big way this week. If they can contain Gurley, they will put the game in Keenum’s hands. Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games in part due to Keenum’s TO issues. Forte still has a lot left and I expect him to get 25+ touches in this contest and for Marshall and/or Enunwa to have a big game. This will be the Rams 3rd cross country trip of the year and after a 3-0 start, they are fading fast.

As we highlighted in the Philadelphia-New York game, it is rare to see the public all over a dog especially a dog that is going in to a hostile environment against a football team that is undefeated on their own turf. Minnesota’s two losses have compelled many to lose faith in just two weeks. This is a football team that took down Carolina, Green Bay and Houston through sound offense and proficient defense. Detroit has pulled off many wins with spitwad and glue. Minnesota is at another echelon and the points given are not by any means a gift or a charity case. The Vikings have one of the most balanced teams on both sides of the football in the league. Do not be fooled by the recent skid, this is a young team and for the most part young teams go through ebbs and flows like Minnesota. The Vikings have the potential to do more than just repeat as NFC North Champs, they have the capability to perhaps be playing for games of a much larger scale. Look for Detroit to be outclassed in this one.

Jacksonville is playing out the string during a very disappointing season. It could be over for the GM David Caldwell/HC Gus Bradley regime after 4 seasons and the players know it. They have stayed in a lot of games but just can’t seem to win any. Denver still has the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders on their schedule and can’t allow a letdown in this one. I expect Siemian to outplay Bortles and for the Broncos defense to make up for their 4th quarter/OT slide last week.

The Bucs have had the recent edge in this NFC South rivalry, but Atlanta should be able to get a leg up on Tampa in this season’s division race with a win both SU and ATS behind a relentless offensive attack that knows how to put up points in bunches.

Revenge could also be a factor following the Falcons’ 31-24 loss to Tampa Bay at home on opening day as 2.5-point favorites. You might want to parlay Atlanta -3 with the OVER 51.5 points in what should be another entertaining game.

The big question in this matchup is which Minnesota team shows up on Monday night in Chicago. The Vikings may not be as good as everyone painted them out to be following that 5-0 start, but they are not nearly as bad as they looked in Philadelphia last week.

The one thing I do know is that the Bears are a very bad team, so that makes this week’s Monday night pick rather easy with Minnesota covering the 5 points on the road.

Dallas has definitely been the more consistent of the two teams, especially on offense behind a strong running game. However, the Eagles bring quite a bit of momentum into this game following last week’s upset over Minnesota. This is the kind of matchup where that extra half point on the current spread could make all the difference in the world.

I have been burnt by Philadelphia on the road this season, but I am going to bite on that attractive 4.5-point spread in what I see as a three point game either way.

I expect this game to be a track meet from the get go. Ryan and Rodgers should both have big contests against defenses dealing with injuries or youth in their secondaries. The fact the Falcons can also run the ball means the Packers have to worry about the run and pass. Six of Atlanta’s 7 games this season have reached 50 points while 5 have hit 55. While GB has only played in 2 contests that have eclipsed 49 points, they haven’t played many elite offenses. I expect this game to go over the number as both offenses feast on defenses not equipped to deal with them.

It is enticing to opt in on Buffalo outright here by virtue of the fact they have already beaten this team once this season and now get them at home with a tremendous purse on the table if they were to win. When we see the public smother the Patriots in both Money Line and Against The Spread markets, it signals us to fade that opinion right away as this is likely the result of last week’s impressive victory combined with the prestige that goes along with the Patriot crest. Buffalo is a talented football team and their four game winning streak shows how relevant and capable this outfit truly is. Had Buffalo won on the road at Miami, this game would have been for first place and perhaps the evaluation and assessment of this contest would have gone in a different direction as well. Nevertheless, the combination of the Dolphin victory and the Steeler defeat has driven the price in this market. The Patriots have had trouble in Orchard Park previously even when Tom Brady was on the field and in his prime. Points with Buffalo is a tremendous value play as an upset may be in the works yet again.

Both of these teams are 4-3 and contending for a division title. Unfortunately for the Lions, they have to deal with Minnesota and Green Bay while Houston’s route to a title is considerably easier. The Texans are 4-0 SU at home this year and I think they and Osweiler can overcome a difficult performance from Monday night. The Lions have always been a much better home team and with so many defensive stars injured, I just don’t see them keeping up with an offense that has a lot of talent and plays so much better at home.

The Jets are the tempting play in this market be that they are the team with the “hotter hand” of the two. We will have no part in playing on a team that simply cannot win but this does not mean there is no equity in playing on this team with points. Case and point, the Browns are 2-5 ATS this season yet they have not won one game. The Jets are not a team that is good enough to be spotting road points to anyone, even if that team is winless. The market seems to invite takers to have a piece of Gang Green action and steer players away from the Browns who require a bit more juice with the points. The safer bet is actually to take the juice as this market is taking a stance on this very fixture. Contrarily in Money Line markets, no one wants a piece of the Jets with the juice then and there, which says to us the Jets are obviously a team that have little faith from the public overall. Can anyone fault that position? The best bet here is the Browns with the points.

This is a big game for both clubs as the Raiders are tied for the division lead and the Buccaneers are only a game behind the Falcons. Tampa Bay’s defense has been up and down this year and I think they will have trouble defending the big-play offense of Oakland. Winston has been prone to big mistakes in 2016 and while he handled the 49ers pretty handily, he must now deal with the better team by the bay. The Raiders have shown themselves to be road warriors this season and a 2nd-consecutive game in Florida means no long trips home in between. I see Carr outplaying Winston in this game and giving the Raiders another big road win.