Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Texas A&M Aggies Pick - Odds - Expert Preview
- Wells Fargo Arena
The match between Penn State Nittany Lions (22-13) and Texas A&M Aggies (25-9) is scheduled to take place on March 16, 2023, at Wells Fargo Arena. Penn State has a point spread of +3 and the total is set at 134.5.
Penn State recently faced Purdue in a close game, ultimately losing 67-65. Despite the loss, Penn State managed to cover the spread as they were 7.5-point underdogs.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, lost to Alabama 82-63 in their last game. Texas A&M failed to cover the spread as they were 5-point underdogs.
Penn State has the advantage in the assists-turnovers ratio, boasting a 1.55 ratio with 13.94 assists and 9 turnovers per game. Texas A&M has a ratio of 1.02 with 12.65 assists and 12.35 turnovers per game.
Texas A&M holds the edge in rebounding, averaging 36.79 total rebounds per game (12.29 offensive, 24.5 defensive). Penn State averages 32.57 total rebounds per game (6 offensive, 26.57 defensive).
Penn State has a slight advantage in shooting percentage, with an offensive percentage of 46.42% and holding opponents to 43.0%. Texas A&M has an offensive percentage of 43.51% and a defensive percentage of 40.49%, giving them a 3.02 differential.
Key Offensive Stats
Penn State averages 72.31 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 46.42%. They are strong in assists, with 13.94 per game, and maintain a healthy assists-turnovers ratio of 1.55. On the other hand, Texas A&M averages 73.24 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 43.51%. They also average 12.65 assists per game and have an assists-turnovers ratio of 1.02.
Key Defensive Stats
Defensively, Penn State allows 68.4 points per game and holds opponents to a shooting percentage of 43.0%. Texas A&M has a stronger defense, allowing only 66.21 points per game and holding opponents to a 40.49% shooting percentage.
- Penn State is 21-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- Texas A&M has a better ATS record at 23-11.
- Penn State has a 20-15 over-under (OU) record, while Texas A&M has a 16-18 OU record.
- Penn State is 5-5-1 ATS away, and Texas A&M is 8-3 ATS away.
- Both teams have a similar recent form, with Penn State going 8-2 in their last 10 games and Texas A&M also at 8-2.
Penn State Nittany Lions
C. Dorsey (F) - Out indefinitely - Undisclosed
(Thu, Feb 23)
Dorsey is idle with an unknown issue, and there is no timetable for return.
Texas A&M Aggies
E. Henderson (F) - Out indefinitely - Personal
(Mon, Nov 14)
Henderson will be away from the program for an undetermined length of time due to an unspecified reason.
Penn State vs Texas A&M Total Pick 03/16/23
Basing this match on the stats and recent form, this looks like it will be close. Both Penn State and Texas A&M have strong offenses, with Texas A&M holding a slight edge in overall scoring. However, Penn State's better shooting percentage and higher assists-turnover ratio may offset this advantage.
Defensively, Texas A&M has the upper hand, allowing fewer points per game and holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage. Rebounding is another area where Texas A&M has an advantage, which could be crucial in a tight game.
Given the similarities in recent form and overall performance, this game could go either way. However, Texas A&M's stronger defense and rebounding may give them a slight edge. If you're planning to bet on the point spread, you should consider the fact that Penn State has a better ATS record, particularly on the road, which could make them a more attractive option for bettors.
That said, the total stands out for me. I see both teams' defenses playing a significant role, the game could be a lower-scoring affair. Bettors should consider the under in this matchup, particularly with the total set at 134.5.