Duke Blue Devils vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview & Pick

March 18, 2:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Duke -4.5

Duke Blue Devils will face the Tennessee Volunteers at a neutral location. The point spread is set at Duke -4.5 and the total is 143.5.

Last Game

In their most recent game, Duke Blue Devils cruised to a 74-51 victory over Oral Roberts, covering the 6-point spread and staying under the total of 146.5. Duke shot 48.44% from the field and made 6 three-pointers. Tennessee Volunteers narrowly escaped with a 58-55 win against Louisiana-Lafayette but failed to cover the 11.5-point spread. The game stayed under the total of 135.5 as Tennessee shot 45.65% from the field and made 4 three-pointers.

Power Stats

Assists Turnovers

Duke has an assists-to-turnovers ratio of 1.23, averaging 14.66 assists and 11.91 turnovers per game. Tennessee has a slightly better ratio of 1.38, with 16.88 assists and 12.24 turnovers per game.


Duke has a slight edge in total rebounds, averaging 38.85 per game, while Tennessee averages 38.55. Duke grabs 12.14 offensive rebounds and 26.71 defensive rebounds, while Tennessee secures 12.79 offensive rebounds and 25.76 defensive rebounds per game.

Shooting Percentage

Duke has a 45.23% shooting percentage on offense and holds opponents to 40.6% on defense, resulting in a 4.63 differential. Tennessee shoots 43.7% on offense and allows 37.03% on defense, leading to a better 6.67 differential.

Key Offensive Stats

Duke has a solid offensive advantage with a higher field goal percentage and more assists per game. However, Tennessee's superior assists-to-turnovers ratio indicates better ball control, which could keep them in the game.

Key Defensive Stats

On the defensive side, Tennessee has a slight edge due to their better shooting percentage differential. Both teams are closely matched in rebounding, so controlling the boards will be a critical factor in this matchup.

Betting Odds Trends

  • Over is 3-0-1 in Blue Devils' last 4 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
  • Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
  • Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Duke Blue Devils

No injuries to report.

Tennessee Volunteers

Z. Zeigler (G) is out for the season due to a knee injury (Wed, Mar 1).

Duke vs Tennessee Free Pick 03/18/23

The Duke Blue Devils should secure a win in this matchup. Duke boasts a higher field goal percentage of 45.23% compared to Tennessee's 43.7%. This advantage in scoring efficiency will help Duke capitalize on their offensive opportunities more effectively. Additionally, Duke has a solid 4.63 shooting percentage differential, which demonstrates their ability to outscore opponents consistently. While Tennessee has a better assists-to-turnovers ratio (1.38) than Duke (1.23), indicating better ball control, this may not be enough to compensate for Duke's stronger scoring ability. Duke's 14.66 assists per game demonstrate their effectiveness in creating opportunities for teammates, which could prove decisive in this matchup.

Free Pick: 
Take Duke -3.5.