NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

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Monday Nov 09, 2020

As bad as New England's been this season, it's still easily the better team in this match-up. The Patriots own the better running game, the better quarterback, the better defense, and the better coach. They probably should have beat Buffalo last week. New York, on the other hand, looks like a totally lost cause. We're giving the points with New England here.

Free Pick: 
Take the Patriots -10
Sunday Nov 08, 2020

It's a tough pick to make with so much contrasting data, along with two teams that have a lot in common—division rivals whose fortunes rest with 40+-year old quarterbacks. Which team can have more aerial success with the status of key guys so up in the air? Without really knowing Godwin or Thomas' status, as well as how fast Antonio Brown can hit the ground running, we're a little in the dark. I just see more scenarios shaking out favorably for the Bucs and that between their more-bankable defense and possible help being on the way aerially, they can notch the win and cover at home. I'm taking Tampa.

Free Pick: 
Take the Bucs -4
Sunday Nov 08, 2020

I don't have the greatest confidence in Phillip Rivers, but I do believe the Colts have the most realistic paths to victory in this game. I have said all season the Colts defense is underrated, and this is the perfect match-up to prove their strength along the defensive front. I expect the Ravens to have trouble running the football and to struggle on offense in this match-up. When the curtain falls, I expect the Colts to be victorious

Free Pick: 
Take the Colts +1.5 (Jay gave this out earlier in the week at +3)
Monday Nov 02, 2020

Tampa Bay looks like it's beginning to click with Brady and his bunch offensively, and the Bucs' defense ranks No. 3 in the League. Also, Tampa just hung one on Las Vegas last week, and the Raiders are better than the Giants. New York's played some close games lately, but those came against their fellow incompetents in the NFC East, Philly, Washington, and Dallas. Plus, the G-Men are banged up. We'll give the points here with the Buccaneers.    

Free Pick: 
Take the Bucs -13
Sunday Nov 01, 2020

When a team is fancied in some circles as a Super Bowl candidate, and they end up bottomed-out after seven games, there's a certain deflation level that you won't see with other teams who just stink, knew they stink, continue to stink, and are more or less at terms with it. Dallas does have some horses, and in their heads, they could figure, "Hey, why the long faces? We're still in this thing!" But what changed from last week when Dallas put forth one of their most-inept performances in years? Granted, things aren't always as bad as they look at their worst, and Philadelphia is far from solid, particularly as a betting favorite, but I'm more inclined to back the Eagles in this one.

Free Pick: 
Take the Eagles -10.5 (Note line was -7.5 when pick was made)
Monday Oct 26, 2020

Los Angeles got out-played by San Francisco last week, but we expect a bounce-back effort this week. Meanwhile, Chicago won a game on the East Coast last week but now heads out to the opposite coast for this one. Also, while the Rams are out-rushing opponents by 26 yards per game this season, the Bears are getting out-rushed by 23 YPG. We'll play LA for our free pick for Monday night, minus the points.  

Free Pick: 
Take the Rams -6
Sunday Oct 25, 2020

It's understandable why the Raiders would be appealing in this spot, getting points in a foreign road-spot for Tampa, while rested after a pretty thorough win over the defending champs. Maybe I just smell a rat and think that on a very basic level, the Raiders haven't been able to equal Tampa's rate of improvement on both sides of the ball. And if Tampa's recent run and this setting somehow render them a bit deflated, it's going to be an uphill battle. I just don't sense that come down this week. I'll take Tampa.

Free Pick: 
Take the Bucs -5
Monday Oct 19, 2020
Murray gets most of the ink surrounding Arizona, but the Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the league in yardage, holding foes to 347 yards per game, and fifth in scoring, allowing only 20 points per game. Meanwhile, Dallas is working with its back-up QB, and its defense made the Giants look good last week. We'll take Arizona here, plus the point.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Arizona +1
Sunday Oct 18, 2020
With the Rams' pass-rush humming along nicely after an 8-sack game last week, I see the San Francisco offensive line really being up against it, which doesn't offer a lot of promise for the wayward Garoppolo or whoever else ends behind center. And with how well the LA secondary is playing, albeit against some substandard offenses, it's hard to envision this being the week for a huge San Fran offensive about-face. I see the Rams offense taking it to the ravaged Frisco “D,” enough to get out of the Bay Area with a win and cover on Sunday night. I'm taking the Rams.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Rams -3
Sunday Oct 18, 2020
If I had any confidence the Bengals could rebound in a strong way, I would likely back the Bengals in this spot, getting nearly double-digit points against a limited Colts offense. However, I don't see many paths to the Bengals rebounding here. Cincinnati's offensive line is horrible. They have failed to open holes for running back Joe Mixon, and they have been awful in pass protection as well. Both of these facets are strengths for the Colts defense, and I expect this to be another somber afternoon for Bengals fans. For that reason, I would favor the Colts and the points if I had to pick the side. However, I believe the best value for both struggling offenses is the under 45.5 against the total. Even if Cincinnati performs better than expected, there are several paths to keep this game under the listed total, which is the best probable play for this match-up.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Under 45.5
Monday Oct 12, 2020
Both these teams are banged up, which makes 7 points look like more than usual. New Orleans doesn't quite look like the team that won 13 games last season; they might miss Thomas. The Chargers, meanwhile, played both the Chiefs and Bucs tough and could have won both those games. Also,  Herbert looks like he can play at this level. We'll take San Diego and the points here.
 
Free Pick: 
Chargers +7
Sunday Oct 11, 2020
In all honesty, this looms as a potentially troublesome spot for Seattle. They could be a little down, and the Vikings could play well, which would make covering this number a major uphill battle. It's a spot where bettors can outsmart themselves. My mind keeps taking me to the Seattle offense and how well they're operating, going against a Minnesota defense that has been far from bankable. I see a shootout of sorts, with Seattle keeping enough of a distance on Minnesota to win and cover the spread. I'm taking Seattle.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Seattle -7
Sunday Oct 11, 2020

I don't normally like betting on bad teams, but the Redskins provide a lot of value in this match-up with the points they are receiving. I would not be surprised if Washington challenges for the upset, so I will back them with confidence this week.

Free Pick: 
Take Washington +8.5 (note the line has dropped since writing to +7.5/8 at most sportsbooks)
Monday Oct 05, 2020
Most signs point toward Green Bay here; the Packers are averaging 41 points per game, they're running the ball well, and while they're allowing 28 PPG, part of that has been situational. Meanwhile, Atlanta's blown big leads the last two weeks. However, the Falcons were also good enough to build those big leads in the first place. Green Bay is ranked in the top three in most NFL power rankings, Atlanta in the 20s, but realistically these teams are closer than that. They might not win this game outright, but we like the Falcons and the points here.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta +7
Sunday Oct 04, 2020

The combination of the 49ers’ injury problems and the Eagles’ urgency to get in the win-column before their season officially capsizes could make Philly an appeal underdog choice this week after they flopped three weeks in a row as the favorite. You can never completely dismiss the heart of a champion, and it could surface here. At some point, however, you either have the horses on offense, or you don't. And it's going to take a special spot to forecast success for the Eagles' offense, as I don’t see it surfacing this week. I’ll lay the number on the 49ers.

Free Pick: 
Take the 49ers -7 (pick made earlier in the week)
Friday Sep 04, 2020

I really like the Bears +3 at Bovada potential with Foles at quarterback, and I also think this match-up against the Colts is favorable. I would expect a low scoring game with the Bears controlling things late.

Free Pick: 
Take the Bears +3
Monday Sep 28, 2020

Baltimore is 21-3 with Lamar Jackson starting at QB, but 0-2 against Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs are coming off a less-than-wonderful performance last week against the Chargers, but we expect better this week. And we're getting three and a hook? We'll take KC and the points.

Free Pick: 
Take the Kansas City +3.5
Sunday Sep 27, 2020
I think the Green Bay "D" is better than they've shown in weeks one and two, where the "D" did well when it mattered. Losing Michael Thomas might not be an easy loss for the Saints to camouflage, as he was a valuable tool on this offense in many ways, and without him, the whole dynamic changes. While gifted with a back in Kamara who can do a lot of damage aerially and a good tight end in Jared Cook, they're a little strapped for wide receiver talent with Thomas out of the mix. Green Bay could be in a similar predicament if Adams isn't ready to go. I still see a tight game where taking the points seems like a good idea. I'm taking the Packers.</p>
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Packers +3

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