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Kansas City is the better team here, especially, obviously, offensively, playing on the road, where the spread is a bit more amenable. So we like the Chiefs for our free NFL pick in this spot.
6.5 is a magic number for me to look hard at an underdog because the market is so reluctant to give said team a full touchdown-plus PAT. When it comes to the Browns, this is certainly an understandable practice as this team hung with Los Angeles all throughout their Sunday Night tilt. However, many will judge the performance by the box score and not the actual game played, and this sets up the Brownies to stage the upset. Generally speaking, this figure presented is an upset-conducive number and I firmly believe that the Browns will upset the Ravens here. However, for those that wish to play this a bit more conservative and avoid Cleveland on the Money Line at +245, there are plenty of points to scoff up and advise all to take advantage.
New York comes in riding a wave of hope while Washington just looks lost. However, the NFL can be a very strange place, where what's riding high one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. Also, even with all the ink, Jones is getting we'll give the Redskins the edge in the quarterback match-up, for the moment, plus they probably own the better defense. It's not easy betting a team that's 0-3 but we'll take Washington and the points for our free NFL pick.
The Packers have played well on defense especially in the secondary that has allowed only 592 combined yards through the air this season. They are banged up in the front seven and may be short a few guys come game time. Offensively, they've struggled to protect QB Rodgers giving up seven sacks but held the Broncos to zero last week.
The Eagles have done OK offensively scoring 20 or more points in all three games this season, but like the Pack their O-line hasn't impressed allowing seven sacks. Part of the problem is a banged-up receiving crew that reports state will be without team yardage leader DeSean Jackson. Fellow WR Alshon Jeffrey has been dealing with a calf issue and hasn't been very effective with five catches for 49 yards. The Philadelphia defense has done a great job against the run holding the opposition to 171 yards on 2.9 yards a carry which may take away the play-action game from Rodgers.
I can see this going two ways, the Eagles going in and beating the Packers outright or a defensive game with a 20-17 score. The total seems the more likely of the two, so that's where my bucks are going to land on this game.
I was ready to lay the points with Carolina before the Cam Newton news broke so to me this is a value play and a half now that I get the Panthers at a plus-price. The Cardinals have no rushing attack as they curated just 20 yards on the ground in their last outing and they also own one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up 458.5 total yards of offense per game. Moreover, Arizona is 29th against the run (149 rushing yards per game against), and that is bad news considering I expect Carolina to implement a steady dose of playmaking running back Christian McCaffery to alleviate the pressure on Allen and he will feast on this Cardinals defense. Carolina will get their first win this season despite all the experts predicting the "upset" by the underdog-gone-favorite Cardinals.
The NFL is a very volatile environment; what's up one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. Houston is coming off a close win, while San Diego – err, Los Angeles – is coming off a tough loss. But this game looks like a good candidate to fall into our “reversal of fortune” theory. We're betting the Chargers here for our free NFL pick.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals won this one outright and I would not by any means discourage all those who are aboard by splitting this one with half of the wager with the points and the other half on the Money Line (+218). Be that as it may, there are plenty of points to work with here. Buffalo is facing a much more potent offense than the Giants and Jets, and it will be a far more difficult test for the Bills defense compared to what they saw in the first two weeks of action. As mentioned, I can see the Bengals upsetting the Bills, but even if they don't, Buffalo will have to work hard for this win, and I don't see this game being settled by more than four points in either direction.
These teams played a close one last year, and we expect a close game Sunday. In fact, considering Baltimore owns the better running game and the better defense we won't be surprised if the Ravens win this one outright. Just to be safe, we're betting Baltimore plus the points for our free NFL pick.
I was all set to jump on the Jets as a small home dog before the Sam Darnold mono report surfaced. The Jets do have some weapons on offense and while that may not have been apparent last week against an under-rated Bills defense. What was evident was that improvement is needed on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo's offense scored only 17 points, but they out-yarded the Jets by nearly 150 yards and could have lit the scoreboard up if they were a little more careful with the ball (-3 turnovers). The Browns offense managed just 13 points with Mayfield (3 INTs) and the offensive line (5 sacks allowed) having sub-par performances. I like the chances to improve with a less than ferocious pass rush of this week's opponent who managed just one sack last week. Trevor Siemian behind center doesn't strike fear into defenses at least not at the pro level, but he back in 2017 he showed that he can be an adequate starter. With the O/U line down to 44 points, we don't need either team to light it up. A 28 -17 type game gets us the money.
Colts Quarterback Jacoby Brissett managed to go 21/27 with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and 190 passing yards against Los Angeles' defense. This is a very economical outing for the Indianapolis signal-caller who was thrown into an unexpected starting role. On that note, I can only imagine what Matt Stafford will do if he has similar opportunities to find receivers and complete passes at such a high percentage against the Chargers defense. Lest we forget, Stafford has gone for over 500 yards through the air on several occasions and has thrown five touchdowns in plenty of games where he got in a groove. I see Matt having that kind of day against this Chargers defense, and as a result, Detroit will stage the upset.
Some of the sharper sportsbooks have priced the Steelers a half-point ahead of the trending market figure of -3.5 which says to us that a bounce-back seems to be on the horizon for the Black and Yellow. However, it is hard to imagine that Pittsburgh does not respond to their Week One debacle as they are captained by one of the most consistent coaches in the NFL, Mike Tomlin. Though Pittsburgh missed the post-season in 2018, the Steelers have been the model of consistency as they have never won less than eight games under his tenure since he took the reins in 2007. I like Mike to circle the wagons here and get Pittsburgh back on track. I think the defenses will control this game for the most part, but I see that playing into Pittsburgh's hands with thousands of Terrible Towels waving in their support. A late touchdown will send Pittsburgh takers to the window as I have the Steelers winning this game by at least six points.
Dallas is the better team here, playing on the road, where the spread isn't as prohibitive as it would be if this game were being played down at JerryWorld. So we're giving the points with the Cowboys for our free NFL pick.
Last season the home team took both matches straight up and against the number with the smallest margin of victory being 7. I could make an argument for taking the Panthers here especially after watching Jameis Winston try to play QB. I like the total better. The Bucs defense played well holding the 49ers offense to approx. 250 yards and 17 points. The Panthers gave up a lot of yardage on the ground, but I expect them to have more success against the Bucs running game. The O/U line is a generous 50 points, and I'm calling for a 24-14 type game giving us lots of room on the UNDER.
Many signs here point toward Minnesota; Cook is back, the defense will again be tough, and the Vikes own a tremendous home-field advantage. However, we expect Atlanta to be improved on defense and in the running game, and we'll give the Falcons the edge in the quarterback comparison. So we're taking Atlanta and the points for our free NFL pick here.
I don't know, will the calls go the Saints way after last season's NFC championship game debacle? Houston played everyone tough last season after Week 3 winning nine straight and 11 of their last 14 (two losses were by three or fewer points) and may be improved over last season. The Saints are dealing with some defensive injuries.
Early action on the Broncos as a 2.5-point underdog would suggest that there are some individuals that saw the equity in Denver's tag even before the pending Brown suspension. With or without AB lining up split wide, this is a much better Denver team up against a Raiders squad that still has yet to find its feet under John Gruden. I don’t expect anything to change other than Oakland’s cover streak coming to an end. I have Denver winning this one by double digits.
The Jets will be rocking some new jerseys in New Jersey in this NFL opening game. I like the prospect of the Jets, making those jerseys look extra sharp when their offense finally gets firing on all cylinders. Quarterback Sam Darnold is back under center with a year of experience under his belt, and he returns two wide-receivers in Quincy Enunwa and Robbie Anderson that both have 1,000-yard/10-touchdown capability if Darnold can get the ball to them. With Bell and Bilal Powell both available to keep opposing defenses honest, we will see a much different Jets team than we did it in its previous edition. I like the Jets to cover this number easy and win against their divisional nemesis by at least a touchdown. Lay the field goal with confidence.