NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ATS - FREE WEEKLY EXPERT PREDICTIONS

It is safe to say that this is an essential game for each of these division foes. Philadelphia still has the edge as the overall better team. However, it has yet to put together a full four-quarter effort. The Giants have played teams tough, but they have forgotten how to win. In what should be a hard-fought battle for all four quarters, whichever team makes the fewer mistakes should win.

My lean for Thursday night is towards the Eagles, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the UNDER on the current 45-point betting line.

The Chiefs offense has been balanced this season, but they haven’t faced a defense that not only can stop the run (11th in RYPG) but the pass (2nd in PYPG) as well. The forecast is calling for steady rain for this game which may make them one dimensional. The Jags will be without star RB Leonard Fournette, and it’s significant downgrade to T.J. Yelton, but they do have the superior running QB in Blake Bortles who has 132 yards and a 7.3 YPC average this season. Jacksonville will also be facing one of the weakest run defenses in the league allowing 123 yards per game on a league-worst 5.6 yards. Taking the points backing a team with the vastly superior defense is the way to go here.

You have to give Dallas credit for pulling out last week's win against Detroit, but there are still some significant issues with this team in all three phases of the game. The Cowboys have played their best ball this season in Big D, so winning SU on the road could be a reach. Houston is far from out of the woods in a disappointing start, but playing this game at home coming off a big win is a major plus.

Home field will be a significant factor between two teams that are not all that familiar with one another. I will lay the three points and take the Texans both SU and ATS.

The Colts continue to play hard each week with Luck back at the helm, and they should be able to keep this game closer than the current 10-point spread. New England needed to make a statement against Miami in a crucial division game, but it could struggle to dial up that same intensity this week.

I have New England winning this game SU, but I will take my chances on another solid showing by the Colts to cover.

Betting against a team as hot as Kansas City does not make all that much sense, but there has to be some concern with a defense that has allowed an average of 30.7 points in those first three wins. The recent betting trends work against Denver in this matchup, but the Broncos know just how important a victory on Monday night would be in the process of turning things around.

My lean is actually towards the Broncos on Monday night with the five points, but my ‘best bet’ pick is the OVER 55.5 on the current total line.

Both teams have done an outstanding job against the pass using the yards per game metric Detroit ranked leading the league and Dallas in fourth spot. That said on paper this will be the biggest test for the Cowboys’ pass defense facing the number 8th aerial attack of the Lions. That’s the opposite scenario the Lions have facing the 31st ranked Dallas pass offense. Some bettors may be worried about the Detroit run defense that has been gouged for a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, but that is skewed by a few big runs. Ezekiel Elliot indeed can manufacture some big runs, but with the limited threat from the passing game, I expect the Lions to have the safeties up to help. Detroit has too much offense for the Cowboys.

In the times we have seen Josh Allen take the field in both the pre-season and last week, he has emerged as an impact player. As long as Allen is on the field, the Bills are a different team, and he is a dangerous guy to give a touchdown plus a field goal to. Expect Buffalo to menace Green Bay this week in what will likely be an offensive-oriented affair.

New England’s primetime loss was seen by all and that makes the public reluctant to get on board with the Patriots here this week, especially against a team that is undefeated. The points seem quite appetizing here with the Dolphins, but it is assuredly fool's gold. Bill Belichick is better than anyone that coaching up his teams when the road gets bumpy. New England will respond to their last two losses with fury and take it out on the Dolphins. Swallow the points.

The Vikings are a far better team than the one that took the field at home last Sunday, but a lopsided loss to possibly the worst team in the league cannot be overlooked. Putting aside just how well the Rams have played in the first three weeks, it is hard to see how Minnesota can correct its issues in a short week against the NFC’s top team.

With the half-point on the current spread favoring the home team, I am going to lay the 6.5 points and take Los Angeles both SU and ATS in Thursday night's contest.

Conventional wisdom dictates that Pittsburgh returns to form on Monday night and Tampa Bay returns to earth. I think it will be a bit of both in a game that is still too close to call. The Steelers continue to add off-field distractions to their plate, while the Buccaneers have built up quite a bit of momentum heading in this prime-time tilt.

Each team has shown the ability to put points on the board, and I believe that continues to be the case in a game that goes OVER the 53.5-point total line.