The Rays are hot winners of eight in a row and while they have lost seven of Stanek’s last eight road starts he will be facing a Braves team that has lost their previous four home games. However, that streak will end in this game with Teheran getting the starting nod. Since July 30th Teheran has held opponents to a batting average of only .155 and has a pretty solid ERA of 2.93. The Braves have only scored five runs in their last three games with four of them coming in their last one. They have not given Teheran much support in his last three starts, and that will happen in this one. However, just like in Teheran’s earlier start against the Rays he will have a good outing and lead Atlanta to a win snapping the Rays eight-game win streak.

The Blue Jays had been solid at the dish in their five-game win streak before only scoring three runs in their last game. Kendrys Morales has gone yard in seven straight games and can tie a Major League record with a HR in this game. Gaviglio’ snapped his 15-game winless streak with a win over the Orioles in his last start while Hess took another loss in his previous start, which was facing the Blue Jays, even though he had a solid outing. All streaks come to an end, and two will end in this game. Hess will finally get some run support while having another solid outing and the Orioles will win snapping their eight-game losing streak and also snapping their 10-game losing streak against the Blue Jays.

Hard to go against the stacked Red Sox, but while they have the best record in the bigs, they have not played their best ball as of late and faced Tampa's Ace in Snell in this series finale. The Rays are hot and at home where they are 16 games over .500 as opposed to eight games under .500 on the road. In Eovaldi’s first two starts for Boston he did not give up any earned runs, but he has given up four of them in two of his last three outings. He did pitch well in his three home starts before being traded to the Sox, and while he will have a decent outing in this game, Snell will have the better one. Snell will be the main reason the Rays win this game, as he will shut down the Boston lineup and Tampa Bay will get the W and complete the three-game sweep.

The Nationals' lineup has not scored in their last three games, but they lit up Matz the last time they faced him. He was decent in his last start and will be decent again in this one, and luckily he will be facing a struggling Nats' lineup. While New York has only scored three runs in each of the first two games of this series their lineup will get to Rodriguez, who is coming off a less than impressive last outing. Like the first two games of this series, this will be a low scoring affair, which the Mets will win and they will complete the sweep.

Stephen Strasburg may have an excuse for his last two starts with the neck issue which did have a big impact on his home ERA number, although he hasn’t been all that sharp at home this season overall registering a quality start in just 37.5 of his home outings. Strasburg does have excellent numbers against the Philadelphia team holding the forecasted lineup to a career .226 batting average in 124 at bats. Zach Eflin has one career start versus the Nationals, and that came in June where he held them to two runs over five innings in a 12-2 laugher. They did bang him around a bit in that game with four doubles, but he kept them in the park which has been his biggest issue this season as of late. Both bullpens got a workout in the series opener so we’ll need the starters to log some solid innings for this to cash, but the total seems like the bet for this game.

A nice battle tonight at Dodger Stadium with the rookie Austin Gombre taking the mound to make his fourth career road start and Los Angeles countering with Alex Wood. The rook has looked OK in his three previous road starts with a 1-0 mark and 3.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. In a combination of relief and starts Gomber has walked 11 in just 19 innings pitched, and that is a concern going against the Dodgers who lead the Majors in walks this season. LAD starter Alex Wood was decent in his return from the DL pitching five innings of three-hit ball allowing just one run, but he’s been dealing with leg issues on and off all season and may not be at his best right now. Historically he doesn’t have a lot of experience against the forecasted starters with the “lion’s share” 22 of 34 at bats by Marcell Ozuna who has hit .273 versus Wood. The Cards do hit lefties well with a nine-inning average of 5.01 runs which is over a half run over their numbers against right-handed pitchers. The Dodgers have been on a tear at the plate over their last four with 31 runs put on the board and likewise for the Cards who scored four or more in ten consecutive games before being held to one run on Sunday.

The Mets have been playing better as of late with a positive record on this road trip including two wins over the Phillies this weekend. That said, the starting pitching edge by Philadelphia is enormous in this game. NY Mets starter Jason Vargas has been dreadful all season with 7.7 QS percentage, and while he did pick up a QS in his latest, it was against the Orioles weak unit so we'll have to see if it's a reliable indication of the reversal of form. The Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is pitching the best he has all season with three earned allowed over his last three starts getting QS in all three games. He hasn't had the most success against the Mets team, but he was facing tonight's projected starters holding them to a .182 batting average over 22 at bats. I think there is value in playing this game two ways in case Vargas has a good outing I’ll add a total bet, but even if we get a pitchers duel, I think the Phillies have a big enough edge in the pen to get the win and the cover.

Overall Kansas City's starter Brad Keller has the edge with a decent road ERA of 3.63, but his quality start rate of 11.8% makes it likely that the bullpen will be required to pick up maybe more than a few innings. The Chisox Dylan Covey has been awful no matter where he pitches and at home is no different where he’s compiled an embarrassing 1.60 WHIP and 5.44 ERA. The back numbers of both of these pitchers versus the opponent's lineup are poor with the White Sox hitting .33 versus Keller in 42 at bats and the Royals hitting .294 versus Covey. The relievers for both clubs have struggled all season, so I don't expect a committee from the pen to come in and have success. Adding to my forecast is the current form of each team's offense with the Royals scoring five or more in three of their last four and Chicago putting up five or more in five straight matches.

There is no doubting the Tigers dominance in this series in 2018, but it must be pointed out that four of their victories were by a single run. Tonight, they send out occasional starter Artie Lewicki to make his third start on the season and fourth in his career. He has yet to prove that he can succeed in that roll throwing a combined 13.2 innings allowing 12 runs (10 earned) in the three outings. Lewicki has never lasted past five innings, and it would be a reach to expect him to go deep in this start even against the weak-hitting White Sox. That causes another problem. The Tigers come into this game with a bullpen that was used extensively in the series against the Twins, and while they do have some rested arms, they won't have a full plate of options should he falter early. The White Sox counter with Reynaldo Lopez who has been up and down this season. His main issue has been with giving up the long ball allowing 20 on the season. That said he has pitched well in his last two allowing just one HR over 17 innings pitched helping him record back to back quality starts. Another thing going for Lopez tonight is he’s facing the Tigers who rank dead last in the MLB in home runs and a team he has owned in the past holding the projected starters to a .218 batting average over 55 at bats with ZERO home runs.

The total appears to be the logical bet in this game. The previous three matches this season all surpassed the total line with each game having a combined total score of 11 or greater runs. Indians starter Mike Clevinger has decent career pitcher vs. batter numbers against the Reds lineup but didn't look sharp in his start versus Cincinnati this season allowing five runs over six innings. The Reds counter with Homer Bailey who brings a 6.44 home ERA into this game. He does have decent historical numbers against the team, but his career stats against the Indians projected starters are mediocre with the line-up hitting .275 in 40 at bats. Both sides have the potential to light up the scoreboard tonight, making the over the way to go here.

If I were going to fade Boston, this would be a decent spot, but I think that there is better value offered in the total. The Red Sox struggled to put runs on the board when faced against a trio of good arms put up by the Phillies but returned to form (No. 1 offense in the MLB) against the Yankees scoring four or more runs in all four games in their sweep of the Yankees. They will face the Jays up but mostly down starter Marcus Stroman. Stroman looked good in his two games prior to his last allowing just three runs over 13 2/3 innings against lesser but was ripped by the A's for seven runs in his latest in five frames. Historically the Red Sox batters have had a lot of success versus him hitting a lifetime .299. Boston sends out Drew Pomeranz who like Stroman has not had his best stuff this season and brings a 0-2 W/L record, and 6.17 earned run average into this contest. He has decent back numbers against Toronto's forecasted lineup with them as a whole hitting .239, but his last two against the team are not strong allowing eight earned runs over just six innings pitched.

The Mariners catch the Astros on a down streak losing four straight, but they send out Paxton to make his first start since July 12. Gerrit Cole doesn’t have the best career back numbers against the Seattle line-up, but he was ultra-sharp in his early outing against them this season pitching seven innings allowing one unearned run and comes into this game in good form with two of his last three starts being quality. I’ll take a shot on the visitor getting back on track at a small price.

Shane Bieber did not pitch well in July recording one quality start in four outings, and he returns to Target Field where he was less than impressive in his only start there earlier this season. Twins starter Ervin Santana pitched adequately in his return and was exceptional against the Indians last season allowing one earned run in 24 innings over four starts. The Twins have owned the Indians in six starts on this field in 2018 and are worthy of risking a few bucks on today to continue that form.

The D'Backs crushed the Padres pitching staff for 15 runs in the first two games with nine pitchers seeing action for San Diego. The Padres send out lefty Joey Lucchesi today and while he has pitched well enough to win in last five games allowing two or fewer runs in each, he doesn't last long with the high inning total of 5 1/3 over that stretch. That's not going to bode well for the bullpen.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction 7/29/18

The Brew Crew have won five of their last six games scoring five or greater runs in all five victories. They've won the first three in this set, and I'm banking on them taking another this afternoon. Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra is just 3-3 on the road with a 4.30 earned run average and did get beat up in last two road starts. However, he's pitched well in days games going 4-3 with a sizzling 2.06 ERA, so I'm willing to ride that hot bats of the visitor.

The Pirates were killing the ball for the most part in their 11-game win streak scoring six or more runs in nine of the games. The NY Mets starter Steve Matz pitched well in his start against Pittsburgh back on June 26th and has thrown well on the road with a 3.00 earned run average. That said I'm going to lay down on the Pirates with Nick Kingham on the mound. Kingham has been really sharp in his last three starts, and while he does give up the long ball a little to frequently, the Mets aren't a team that is likely to take advantage of that flaw. Pittsburgh won nine of the 11 in their streak by two or more runs, so I feel comfortable betting the run line in this spot.

The offense has been a problem for both clubs recently with the Giants scoring three or fewer in 11 of their last 16 contests and the Mariners surpassing three runs in just 4 of their last 12. Neither pitcher could be considered in good form, but Andrew Suarez before his latest held opponents to two or fewer runs in six straight starts. James Paxton is coming off the DL so I'm not certain how will perform tonight although for the most this season he has been on his game with a 60% QS rate over 20 starts. Only two batters in the Giants lineup have experience against him with Andrew McCutchen going 1 for 3 and Pablo Sandoval 0 for 3 which should give a significant edge to a strikeout pitcher. The total line is low, but I think it still offers value in what could be a 4-2 type game.

The Tigers starter Francisco Liriano has been hot and cold this season, but he has pitched well against the Royals allowing 5 earned runs over 20 innings pitched in three starts this season. Rookie pitcher Heath Filllmyer makes his second start for Kansas City. He struggled in his first career start, but that did come against the Red Sox hitters who are on a much higher plane than the Tigers who have scored two or fewer runs in seven of their last ten.

The Giants Johnny Cueto looked better in his second back after a lengthy stint on the DL, but it certainly wasn’t impressive. Cueto lasted just five innings allowing three runs on six hits but was taken out of the park twice for the second straight game. Oakland has hit an MLB ninth-ranked 127 HRs this season, and with the wind blowing out, he may have his work cut out for him. Lefty Sean Manaea gets the ball for the A's, and he was sharp in his latest against San Francisco one week ago today allowing two runs over six frames of work for his sixth quality start in his last seven outings. Manaea has mixed metrics at home with a 3-4 record and an OK ERA of 3.49 but does possess an outstanding 0.84 WHIP and a 66.7% QS number. I’ll take the team that is at home with the better “current form” pitcher on the mound and the club that is a sizzling 16-5 in their 21.

Toronto exploded for 13 runs in the last meeting between these clubs taking all four games last time they met in Toronto. That said, the game was the first OVER in the previous six games with these teams recording a 2-5 O/U number in 2018. Neither pitcher is on his game right now, but Baltimore's Bundy has excellent historical metrics against the Toronto's hitters holding the starters to a .170 batting average in 47 at bats. The Jays Sam Gaviglio will be making his first lifetime start against the Orioles and while he comes in struggling he has been excellent at home with a 1.97 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 32 innings pitched. I'll follow the trends and play the total in this spot.