Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds & Predictions

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds & Predictions

Dan Jamison
Date: March 7, 11:30 am
Location: Etihad Stadium
TV: NBSC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: United +1.5/City -1.5
Moneyline: United +600/City -225/Draw +300
Total: Over 2.5 (-130)/Under 2.5 (-105)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Manchester United drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace; Manchester City beat Wolves 4-1.
</p>
<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The sides drew 0-0 at Old Trafford on Dec. 12.
</p>
<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The Manchester Derby marks the last real hurdle for Manchester City on its way to reclaiming the title that it lost to Liverpool a year ago. The Sky Blues have now amassed the third-longest winning streak in history among the top European leagues, as City has won 21 in a row across all competitions, a mark only Bayern Munich and Real Madrid have ever bested. Among just Premier League matches, it's 15 in a row and 17 wins in 19, with two draws, since their last defeat to Tottenham on Nov. 21. Over on the red side of Manchester, United has put together a fine season, as it's only tasted defeat once since Nov. 1. But United's steady play has been no match for City's spectacular form, as the Red Devils have watched helplessly while their greatest rival caught them, overtook them, and left them in the dust. Part of that is because while City's been winning, United has been settling for draws. The Red Devils might be unbeaten in their past seven matches, but they've won just twice and taken three scoreless draws. Of course, in this situation, a stalemate might be good enough, as it would deny City any chance to match Bayern's record of 23. Can United — which tends to play its best soccer against its noisy neighbors — take something away from this match?
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Manchester United:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The 9-0 win over Southampton seems like it was forever ago, as United's attack has been stagnant for the past three matches. United scored goals like nobody's business for most of February, putting 16 in the net in four games. But since the calendar turned to the final week of February, United's offense has been lost at sea. They've now been blanked in three straight matches across all competitions (two PL matches and a Europa League battle), and they haven't scored across the run of play in 300 minutes of action. The main thing that United has to fix is that its young strikers seem to have a crisis of confidence against the rest of the Big Six, despite Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's insistence to the contrary. Against the other five Big Six sides (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, City, and Spurs), United has just one goal in seven matches, and that came in a 6-1 loss to Spurs. The good news for United is that the confidence issues don't extend to the defense: five of those seven matches ended up as scoreless draws.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Manchester City:<br />
</h2>
<p>
If City doesn't get you early, it's probably going to get you late. Pep Guardiola can't be all that pleased with his team's defensive issues, as City has allowed three of its past four Premier League opponents to find the net, but the Sky Blues have more than made up for it by outscoring everybody. What really makes City dangerous is that the goals can come from anyone on the pitch except for goalkeeper Ederson. Fifteen different players have found the net this season for the Sky Blues, with ten different players scoring in just the past five matches. Ilkay Gundogan and Raheem Sterling attract the most attention among goalscorers, as they've scored 20 of City's 56 goals on the season, but as usual, Kevin de Bruyne's creativity is the engine that powers the City attack. What's really fueled City as a whole is its ability to keep a lead; the Sky Blues have scored first in 19 straight matches, and only West Bromwich Albion has managed to come back to earn even a draw in that stretch.
</p>
<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
I don't love this score bet. The books are expecting a defensive battle, so the value is simply not there for a correct score bet on a lower scoring contest. I'd throw an extra unit or two on City and the under in this situation rather than backing the correct score because I can easily see either one or two goals coming from the Sky Blues. However, if you want a score pick, I'll take City 1-0 at +575.
</p>

Dan's Best Bet's

Think low-scoring for this one. I'm aware of City's defensive concerns, but United just isn't finding the net right now, and getting close to even money on the under is a solid play. But of course, we always look to do better than even money on soccer bets, and I think playing City to win and under 2.5 goals holds a lot of promise here. United tends to play very well against City, but playing well against this City squad simply means holding their score down, and I'm really not confident in anyone but Bruno Fernandes scoring for United. I'll gladly take +250 for City and the under. Finally, I'd take a shot on one goal coming in the first half. City's attack is too explosive to keep out for too long, and I think the Sky Blues will try to jump on United early and then boss the rest of the match. You'll get +160 for it.

Get $60 Free Picks