Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Odds & Pick

Date: 
January 24, 3:05 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
TB +3/GB -3
Moneyline: 
Bucs +148/Packers -168
Total: 
51

Before the playoffs began, the Green Bay Packers were the clear betting favorites to take down the NFC following a stellar 13-3 SU campaign that earned the team a first-round bye. Last week, the Packers cemented those expectations with a 32-18 victory over the Rams and are now just one game away from earning a trip to the Super Bowl. However, the path to the Super Bowl will be contested in a highly anticipated showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday. The Buccaneers have been among the NFL's hottest teams throughout the 2nd half of the season and handed Green Bay their most embarrassing loss of the season back in week 6 in a 38-10 blowout at Raymond James Stadium. This week the heavily anticipated rematch between the Green Bay Packers led by Aaron Rodgers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led by Tom Brady awaits on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field with the NFL's biggest prize on the line; a trip to Super Bowl LV.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Analysis

NFL fans will have the luxury of watching two of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game this Sunday in what has to be one of the most anticipated NFC Championship Games in recent memory. On the one hand, Tampa Bay is led by the G.O.A.T in Tom Brady, surrounded by an all-star cast that features receivers Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and tailbacks Ronald Jones and newly featured back Leonard Fournette. Meanwhile, the Packers have the best QB-WR duo in the NFL, led by Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams. Adams has corralled 18 touchdown passes this season to lead the NFL, and Rodgers is basically a shoo-in for the MVP following a 2020 campaign that featured 4,299 passing yards with 48 touchdowns and just five picks. Overall the Packers offense leads the NFL averaging 31.8 points per game, and will get the opportunity to defend Lambeau Field in familiar frigid temperatures on Sunday.

With so much offensive firepower on the field this Sunday, fans and bettors may be expecting a fast-paced shootout in a Rodgers-Brady dual. While that scenario could play out on Sunday, I am expecting a much more physical game where defenses make the biggest difference. The Buccaneers defense shut down Rodgers and the Green Bay offense back in week 6. In reality, Tampa's defense has been playing their best football of the season. The Buccaneers defensive line has been fantastic towards creating pressure, and they have forced four interceptions already this postseason. Meanwhile, Green Bay's defensive play has been largely overlooked throughout the latter part of the season. The Packers defense has held opponents to 18 points or less in five of the last six games. Obviously, when you have a defense holding opponents to those numbers and an offense that leads the league in scoring, it creates quite an uphill battle for opposing teams. The point to take home is that this Sunday's match-up may not be the shootout that everyone expects but rather an opportunity for two emerging defenses to make their presence felt again.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU in the last six games.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings against Green Bay.
  • The Buccaneers have hit the "over" in 14 of the last 20 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Packers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU in the last seven games.
  • The Packers are 15-1 SU against the Buccaneers in the last 16 meetings at home.
  • The Packers have hit the "over" in 8 of their last eight games in January.

Betting against Tom Brady

I know this headline seems absurd because, in reality, Tom Brady is likely the greatest quarterback to ever step on the gridiron. The fact the Buccaneers are in the NFC Championship Game in his 1st season in Tampa is overwhelmingly impressive for the 43-year-old quarterback. With all that respect in mind, I must say that I believe betting against Brady is the play this week. Over the last two playoff games, Brady has struggled immensely, hitting just 55% passing in each game. In both games, the Buccaneers rarely attempted to test defenses vertically and frequently resigned to short screen passes along with other underneath routes. Even on the few attempts Brady did make down the field; the passes were either inaccurate or just poor decisions. I know it seems asinine with all of Brady's accomplishments, but he has shown his age in recent weeks.

The majority of the public will not make this notion, and of course, Brady gets all the credit for the recent victories. However, the Buccaneers defense has been the true hero in both playoff games thus far. The Buccaneers came away with three crucial interceptions against Saints QB Drew Brees last week and have set Brady up on the short-field in 3 of his four touchdowns this postseason. The Buccaneers defense gave Green Bay all they could handle and more in the week six match-up, which will be their best opportunity at a win again this week. My fear for that scenario is that the Packers offense has been extremely efficient and always play their best football at Lambeau Field. If they can just play a normal game, I don't believe Brady will be able to keep pace with the way he has been playing. I know it's not what most casual fans want to hear, but this is about betting on highly favorable outcomes. As a result, fading Brady is the play this week.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay Prediction 1/24/21

Free Pick: 
Take the Packers -3 -120