Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds - Free Pick

Jeff Scott
Date: October 23, 4:05 am
Location: Levi's Stadium
TV: NBC Sports Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Buccaneers -2
Total: 46.5

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Tampa Bay is coming off of their bye week. San Francisco was throttled 45-16 at Buffalo last week. It was their 5th-straight loss, 4 of which have been by 12+ points.
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The Buccaneers expect RB Doug Martin (hamstring) back this week after a 3-game absence. Though he may be used in a limited fashion, he’ll be licking his chops with the thought of carrying the ball against the league’s last-ranked run defense (174.3 ypg). They were gashed for 312 yards last week vs. Buffalo and have allowed 5-straight RBs to top the 100-yard mark, something that has never happened in franchise history. RB Jacquizz Rodgers has been decent in Martin’s absence (4.0 ypc) but Martin is a Pro-Bowl talent. QB Jameis Winston has a 9-8 TD/INT ratio but didn’t throw a pick in the last game, a 17-14 thriller over Carolina. He’s facing a defense that has allowed 12 TD passes vs. 4 picks and should have time to find his receivers. WR Vincent Jackson was placed on IR and may have played his last game as a Buc. WR Mike Evans and TE Cameron Brate are the top targets and WR Adam Humphries has played well in the slot. If the 49ers overplay the run, Winston should have success downfield.
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San Francisco’s offense is now in the hands of QB Colin Kaepernick and that’s not a good thing. He was very ineffective last week in his first start in over a year, going 13-29 for 187 yards. He did throw a TD pass but was sacked 3 times. Tampa Bay’s pass defense hasn’t been great in 2016 (262.4 ypg) but the only receiver they have to really worry about is journeyman WR Jeremy Kerley. WR Torrey Smith has deep speed but is averaging only 2 catches per game. RB Carlos Hyde is the best player on offense but he was bottled up by the Bills last week. The Bucs will surely align their defense to stop the run and should get DLs Gerald McCoy, Robert Ayers and Clinton McDonald back from injury this week. Hyde only has 13 catches for 66 yards so the Buccaneers can focus most of their attention on stopping him on the ground.
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Public Money Consensus<br />
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In this matchup between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the San Fran 49ers the public is leaning towards Winston getting it done on Sunday with 64% believing they will cover the 2 point spread. The over/under bettors are of the mindset that this game won’t be a big scoring one and are laying their money on the game staying under the 46.5 point total line.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers Prediction

Tampa Bay has some ugly trends to deal with in this contest (0-6-1 ATS after their bye since 2009, 2-12 SU all time at SF) but I think they will overcome those this week. The 49ers are reeling and not being competitive in games. Tampa Bay had the week off to get healthy and HC Dirk Koetter hammered it into QB Jameis Winston’s head about avoiding TOs. With the return of Martin and the DLs, I expect the Bucs to get a rare win at a place they have seldom won at in the past. The season-ending loss of 49ers ILB Navorro Bowman certainly doesn’t help SF’s cause either.

Free Pick: Take the Buccaneers -2
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