NFL Week 5 Picks

October 7, 11:24 PM EDT

This week we’re back with a trio of games as we look to continue to pad our bankroll. Week 5 picks include Falcons at Steelers, Packers at Lions and Raiders at Chargers

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In Week 4 we showed a small profit going 2-1 against the betting line with wins on the Bengals who not only covered the =3.5 spread but got the outright win and the OVER on the Browns at Raiders who surpassed the total by 43 points! My only loss came on the UNDER on the Jets at Jaguars game that went three points OVER the line with an unneeded Jacksonville TD in the last 30 seconds in the 31-12 victory.

Week 2: 3-1 ATS
Week 3: 2-1 ATS
Week 4: 2-1 ATS

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sure, this is a high line, but both clubs have shown that they can't stop the opponent's offense. The Falcons come into this game allowing 104 points in their last three games and 80 in their previous two. Last week Cincinnati with an injury-depleted backfield brought their one-dimensional attack to Atlanta and were able to pass for 308 yards. They'll now try to slow down who have amassed over 400 yards of offense in three of their four games this season and have a season average of 339 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have their own issues on defense with the 29th ranked pass defense in yards per game and 28th ranked scoring defense. The Falcons have struggled to run the ball this season, but get back their top RB option in Devonta Freeman today and should show some improvement in that facet of the game today. Note that the Steelers have given up 26 or higher points in all except their opener that was played in harsh weather conditions and just hasn't been the same without their star LB Ryan Shazier.

Take the Over 57.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Packers looked pretty good last week shutting the Bills out but didn’t come out the game healthy with all of their top three receivers getting banged up. Devante Adams looks like the only one that is going to make it on the field today with Cobb out and Geronimo Allison unlikely. They're also banged up in the secondary, and unlike last week against the Bills with a rookie Josh Allen behind center, they'll face Stafford who may be facing his easiest mark this season. The Lions beat the Packers easily here two weeks back and are a live home dog today.

Take Detroit +1

Oakland Raiders at LA Chargers

The Raiders were fortunate to get their victory last week with a blown call on a fumble leading the way. That said based on their competition they’re play hasn’t been as bad as their record would suggest. Oakland opened the season with a new coach hosting the Rams (lost 33-13), at Denver (lost by 1 late), at Miami (lead into the 4th) before last week’s overtime win. The Chargers lack a strong pass rush without DE Joey Bosa and have some holes in the secondary. Their numbers don’t shout that, but they have faced two rookies this season in Josh Allen and C. J. Breathard and come into this game with the 29th ranked ranking in yards per pass attempt.

Take Oakland +5