NFL Week 3 Picks

Date: 
September 23, 10:40 AM EDT

I got off to a good start in our predictions for Week 2 going a solid 3-1 versus the number. This week I’m back with a few more picks that I think are worthy of consideration.

Broncos at Ravens

The betting line on most NFL boards is Baltimore -6 with the total being offered at 56 points.

The Broncos come into this game with the No. 2 ranked rushing offense and I expect them to exploit the Ravens who are dealing with a trio of injuries to their front seven. NT Michael Pierce, ILB C.J. Mosley, and OLB Matthew Judon are all questionable to play today.

The Baltimore offensive line showed last Thursday in Week 2 that they need to improve rushing for just 66 yards on 22 attempts and allowing four sacks. Denver registered only one sack in their latest against the Raiders, but had six the week before and have held both opponents this season to 92 or fewer yards.

Take the Denver Broncos +6

Packers at Redskins

Green Bay is favored by 2.5 points or Washington +3 minus extra juice with an O/U line of 45/46 depending on where you bet.

The Packers are fortunate to be undefeated this season and hit the road for the first time this season. They were out-yarded 480 to 351 as their running game continued to struggle being held to fewer than 100 yards for the second time this season. The Redskins held The Cards to 68 yards on 15 carries, and while the Colts did surpass 100 (103 yards on 28 carries), they were held to 3.7 yards per carry.

Green Bay also comes into this game beat up in the secondary with CB Kevin King ruled out, and SS Josh Jones reported to be iffy this week. Washington doesn't have elite receivers at the wideout position, but their adequate and the short to midrange passing game to RB Chris Thompson and TE Jordan Reed is top notch.

Take the Washington Redskins +3 -115

Patriots at Lions

This line opened with the Pats a -6.5 favorite at most shops but has been driven up to -7. The O/U line is 54 points.

New England’s pass defense was shredded by Jacksonville for 377 yards more than any team amassed in last season against them. They did hold the Texans’ Deshaun Watson to 50% completion rate and 158 yards, but the Pats took advantage of Houston’s weak offensive line pressured the young QB all game. That’s not the case with Lions led by Matthew Stafford who have allowed two sacks on 104 pass attempts! It also doesn’t hurt that NE will be without starting CB Eric Rowe and SS Patrick Chung.

The Lions gave up a ton of big plays to the Jets in Week 1 and finished with a turnover margin of -3. They haven’t faced the best offenses this season but have done well against the pass holding their opponents to a fourth-ranked 168 yards. The run defense is the polar opposite giving up a ridiculous 179.5 yards per game. The problem has been the big play with the Jets I. Crowell and the 49ers M. Breida both breaking off runs of over 60 yards.

I don’t expect Detroit to get the outright win here, but with QB Stafford willing to air it out I think that the host can get the money.

Take the Detroit Lions +7

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