NFL Week 11 Picks

November 18, 12:14 PM EST

This NFL regular season rolls into Week 11. It seems like just yesterday I was at my cottage doing my final analysis on the 32 teams leading into Week 1. Anyway, this week I have a four pack of plays from this week’s card.

Week 10 Recap

I gave out two game picks in Week 10 and came away with a juice losing 1-1 record. The Bears coasted most of the game opening up a 26-0 lead then held on to get the cover in the 34-22 victory. In my other selection, I went with the total, and the Falcons failed me managing just 16 points in a 28-16 loss making my OVER 50 bet a loser.

2018 Season Record: 15-12 ATS +2.80

Week 2: 3-1, Week 3: 2-1, Week 4: 2-1, Week 5: 2-1, Week 6: 1-3, Week 7: 0-3, Week 8: 2-0, Week 9: 2-1, Week 10: 1-1.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Atlanta -3.5 Total: 49

I'm going right back to an OVER play in a Falcons game. Dallas is dealing with a ton of defensive injuries, and if they can get any kind of running game going, they could put up 30 on this defense. The Cowboys ran for 171 yards last week against a decent front 7 of the Eagles and should find the running easy against the Falcons who allowed 211 to the Browns last week!

Take the OVER 49

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions +4 Total: 49

The Lions pass defense has been decent this season allowing 229 yards per game to rank 7th in the league for yards per game, but got lit up last week without their star CB Darius Slay. He returns this week and should be able to solidify this unit against a lackluster Panthers passing game. The Detroit run defense is a concern for sure, but they've improved in recent weeks and will need to stop the big play. Panthers QB Cam Newton has a history of not bouncing back from poor outings, and I expect that to be the case this week. The Lions pride keeps them in this throughout in a game I expect to come down to a field goal. I'm going with the spread pick here, but there is some value in the UNDER.

Take the points on Detroit +4.

Denver Broncos at LA Chargers

Spread: Chargers -7 Total: 46.5

The Chargers are on a roll victorious in six straight, although two of those games were against Oakland and one each against Cleveland and San Francisco. Their defense has shone keeping the opposition to 19 or fewer points per game. Denver's numbers have slid on defense but playing the Chiefs twice, and the Rams once will undoubtedly impact the numbers. I think that the Broncos with Freeman can get some yards on the ground today eating up a ton of clock. The last four in this series have gone under the total, and that's where I think this one lands.

Take the UNDER 46.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -2.5 Total: 44

This will be the best defense the Bears have faced arguably all season and likewise for the Vikings who were held to just 6 points by the Bills earlier at home this season.

Take the UNDER 44