New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Betting Pick - Odds - ATS Prediction

David Schwab
Date: October 5, 8:25 am
Location: Raymond James Stadium
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: New England -5.5
Total: 56

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Week 5 in the NFL gets underway with an inter-conference battle between the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff on CBS from Raymond James Stadium is slated for 8:25 p.m. (ET).
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New England at Tampa Bay Game Overview<br />
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New England has already matched its loss total from last season’s Super Bowl run at 2-2 straight-up through the first four weeks of the this season. It is 1-3 against the spread following Sunday’s stunning 33-30 loss to Carolina as a nine-point home favorite. The total easily went OVER the 47.5-point closing line in that loss and it has now gone OVER in the Patriots’ first four games.
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You cannot blame Tom Brady or the New England offense for the team’s unexpected slow start. He has already thrown for 1,399 yards and 10 touchdowns despite the fact that his favorite target Julian Edelman was lost for the season due to injury. The main concern for the Patriots is a defense that has sunk to last in the NFL in yards allowed (456.8) and 31st when it comes to points allowed (32.0). The defense secondary has been the biggest issue with an average of 324 passing yards allowed through four games.
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Tampa Bay comes into Thursday night’s contest at 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) following Sunday’s last-second 25-23 victory against the New York Giants as a 2.5-point favorite at home. The total went OVER the 46-point closing line after going OVER 41 points in the Buccaneers’ 34-17 loss to Minnesota on the road in Week 3 in a game that closed as a PICK. Tampa Bay extended its SU home winning streak to five games with Sunday’s victory.</p>
<p> Jameis Winston could be in for another big game throwing the ball after racking up 332 yards passing against the Giants. He completed 22 of his 38 attempts including three throws for touchdowns. The Bucs added another 111 yards on the ground in their best offensive display of the year. They are ranked third in the league in passing yards while averaging 23.7 points per game. Defensively, Tampa Bay falls to 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed.
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New England at Tampa Bay Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Patriots have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Week 5 games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games played on grass.
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The Buccaneers have failed to cover in their last four Thursday games, but they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their six games on grass. The total has gone OVER in their last seven games played on a Thursday.
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The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
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Patriots at Buccaneers Week 5 ATS Prediction

The Patriots bounced back from an opening day loss to Kansas City as heavy home favorites with a 16-point victory over New Orleans on the road. The expectation for the same kind of turnaround this Thursday night against another NFC South opponent is pretty high with the betting public as they continue to drive the spread higher. I have New England covering as well, but I am taking the bait on the OVER against an already inflated 56-point total line. I have both of these teams lighting up the scoreboard in this prime time matchup.

Free Pick: Take the Over 56
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