New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Point Spread Pick - Odds - Free NFL Predictions

David Schwab
Date: December 11, 8:30 pm
Location: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS Sports

Betting Odds

Point Spread: New England -11
Total: 47

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The AFC East highlights the final NFL game of Week 14 with the 10-2 New England Patriots travelling to Hard Rock Stadium to face off against the 5-7 Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Game time for this prime-time matchup on ESPN is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET).
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New England at Miami Game Overview<br />
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The Patriots extended their straight-up winning streak to eight games while covering against the spread in their last six with last Sunday’s 23-3 victory on the road against Buffalo as 7.5-point favorites. This was after they covered a huge 17-point spread at home in a 35-17 victory against Miami at home on Nov. 26. The total stayed UNDER 49 points against the Bills after going OVER 49 points in the first meeting against the Dolphins. New England is now 8-4 ATS overall with a 5-1 record ATS on the road.
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New England has once again established itself as the team to beat in the AFC, but it has to be careful to not look past this game to next week’s showdown against 10-2 Pittsburgh in a game that should decide the top seed in the conference for the playoffs. Due to a one-game league suspension, Tom Brady will be without his top target in the passing game with tight end Rob Gronkowski out of the lineup. While there are plenty of other players he can throw the ball to, Gronk was his top scoring option with seven of Brady’s 26 touchdown throws going his way.
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Miami finally snapped an extended five-game skid with a 35-9 victory against Denver last Sunday as a slight one-point home underdog. This was the first time the Dolphins covered in their last seven games including a PUSH against the New York Jets and Oakland in that extended slide. Overall, they are 5-7 SU with a 4-6-2 record ATS and the total has gone OVER in seven of the 12 games. Miami is 3-5-1 ATS this season when closing as an underdog.
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The Dolphins’ offense could not hang with New England two weeks ago in Foxborough and it is doubtful it will be able to close that gap on Monday night. Under veteran quarterback Jay Cutler, Miami is 29th in the NFL in yards per game (292.6) and 26th in scoring with an average of 17.4 points per game. Defensively, things are not all that much better with a points-allowed average of 24.8 PPG.
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New England at Miami Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Patriots have covered in 13 of their last 16 road games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five division games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five December games.
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The Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last five games against the AFC East and they have failed to cover in their last eight Monday night games. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine games in the division.
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The home team in this division clash is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two rivals.
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New England at Miami Free Game Prediction

Giving up 11 points on the road in any division matchup comes with some added risk no matter how wide the gap is between these two teams. However, it is also hard to bet against a team that has covered in its last six games while outscoring its opponents by a combined 112 points. I would lay the points and take New England to cover on its current form alone. Even with its All Pro tight end on the sidelines, the Patriots are clearly on a mission in defense of last year’s Super Bowl title.

Free Pick: Take the Pats -11
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