Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Pick ATS

Darin Zank
Date: September 17, 8:20 pm
Location: Gilette Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Mia -3/NE +3
Moneyline: Mia -155/NE +135
Total: 46.5

We have a decent Sunday night match-up as the Miami Dolphins head to Foxboro to battle it out with the New England Patriots at the iconic Gillette Stadium. With the Dolphins riding high from a triumphant game against the Chargers and the Patriots licking their wounds after a home loss to the Eagles. Catch the game at 8:20 pm ET, broadcast live on NBC. Who will triumph? Get the lowdown to help you make an informed bet with the recent stats, trends, and Zank's seasoned perspective.

AFC East rivals commence their divisional slates when the Dolphins play the Patriots on Sunday night in Foxboro. Miami’s coming off a high-scoring victory over the Chargers to open this season, while New England lost a tough one at home to the Eagles.

The Dolphins hold the lead in this series since that Brady guy parted with the Patriots. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 2 NFL betting market opened Miami as a two-point divisional road favorite over New England, with an over/under of right around 46.5. Early betting action then bumped the Dolphins to -3.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami opened its season last week with a wild 36-34 win at the Chargers. The Dolphins spotted Los Angeles the first seven points of the game, led 10-7, trailed 14-10, then led 20-17, and that was just the first half. The second half saw four lead changes as the teams roamed up and down the field, the last when Miami drove 75 yards to the game-winning score with just under two minutes to go.

The Dolphins racked up 536 yards of total offense against the Chargers, as QB Tagovailoa threw for 466, including 215 to WR Tyreek Hill. However, that Miami defense gave up 433 yards of Los Angeles offense, including 233 on the ground. Which is a bit concerning.

After going 9-8 last season, the Dolphins are playing against a Season Team Wins over/under of 9.5 this season.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England opened its season with a tough 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia last Sunday. The Patriots basically gave the Eagles the first 16 points of the game but battled back to within 16-14 at the half. New England later fell behind 25-14, got back within one score late, and drove to the Philly red zone but came up empty.

Sadly, a late botched 2-point conversion attempt cost the Patriots the cover as 3.5-point home dogs.

New England actually out-gained the Eagles 382-251. But two first-quarter turnovers turned into 14 Philadelphia points, and that was about it.

After going 8-9 last season, the Patriots are playing against a wins O/U this season of 7.5.

On the injury front, New England was down two starters on the O-line last week, starting rookies in their places, and they might have to do the same thing Sunday night.

Dolphins-Patriots Recent History

Miami is 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS vs. New England since Tom Brady left the scene. Last year, these teams split their two meetings; the Dolphins won 20-7 in Week 1, while the Patriots won 23-21 in Week 17. But we should point out that Tagovailoa missed that second meeting due to injury.

NFL Betting Trends

  • NFL home teams played just 6-10 SU, 4-12 ATS in Week 1.
  • NFL favorites played 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS in Week 1.
  • NFL home dogs played 2-4 ATS in Week 1.

Totals Report

The unders played 9-8 in Dolphins games last season, but last week’s game against the Chargers played over a total of 51.

The unders played 9-8 in Patriots games last season, but last week’s game against Philadelphia played over a total of 44.

Through Thursday night, the Unders are 12-5 in the NFL this season.

Dolphins at Patriots Free Betting Pick

Miami won a wild game on the other side of the country last week and now heads 1,500 miles north for Sunday’s game. We wonder if that won’t have an effect. Also, that Dolphins defense concerns us a bit. New England, meanwhile, lost a tough game at home last week. Might the Patriots be primed for a rebound effort here? Also, if anyone can come up with a solution to the Tagovailoa-Hill problem, you’d think it might be Coach Belichick. We expect this game, like these teams’ games last week, to play out close, so we’ll take the Patriots plus the points.

Free Pick: Take the Pats +3
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