Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds & Picks
The Dolphins continue their pursuit of a playoff berth while the Raiders play for their playoff lives when they meet for an interesting AFC bout Saturday night in Las Vegas. Miami played itself into playoff contention by winning eight of its last ten games; the Raiders played themselves into desperation mode by losing four of their previous five. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 16 NFL betting odds opened the Raiders at -1.5 over the Dolphins, with an over/under of 47. Early betting action then flipped Miami into a three-point favorite.
Dolphins Betting Preview
Miami is 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS over its last four games after beating rival New England last week 22-12. The Dolphins, with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa making his seventh career start, came out slow and trailed the Patriots 6-0 at the half. Miami then drove its first possession of the second half 72 yards to a touchdown, fell back down 9-7 but took the lead for good on a Tua TD run early in the fourth quarter, then iced the victory with another Tua score with three minutes left.
Miami out-gained New England 383-303, piled up a season-high 250 yards on the ground, and dominated time of possession by a 37:23 clip. The Dolphins also held the Patriots without a touchdown. Miami has now out-gained and out-rushed three of its last four opponents. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins lost to Super Bowl favorite Kansas City 33-27 but covered as seven-point dogs. Three weeks ago, Miami beat Cincinnati 19-7, covering as a 10-point favorite, and four weeks ago, they beat the Jets 20-3, covering at -8.
At 9-5 overall, the Dolphins can't catch division-champion Buffalo in the AFC East, but they can clinch a wild-card berth with a win Saturday and another next week against the Bills.
- Get more details: Miami at Las Vegas 12/26/20 Match-up Stats
Raiders Betting Preview
Las Vegas, meanwhile, is 1-4 both SU and ATS over its last five games after losing to the rival Chargers last Thursday 30-27 in overtime. The Raiders trailed San Diego 17-10 at the half but tied the game at 24-24 midway through the fourth. Vegas drove the opening possession of OT to the San Diego 3-yard line but got conservative and settled for a field goal. The Raiders then allowed the Chargers to go 75 yards in five plays to a game-deciding touchdown. Las Vegas actually out-gained the Chargers 449-402, out-rushed San Diego 173-96, and won the time of possession by a 38:31 split. But the Raiders also allowed the Chargers to hit 7/12 on 3rd-down conversions and gave up a huge, 53-yard pass play that set up the final score. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr pulled a groin and missed the last three-quarters of the game, but back-up Marcus Mariota performed well in relief. As of this writing, it remains uncertain who will start behind center for the Raiders Saturday.
Vegas has now been out-rushed in each of its last four games.
Two weeks ago, the Raiders lost to Indianapolis 44-27. Three weeks ago, Las Vegas needed a minor miracle at the end of the game to beat a bad Jets team 31-28. Four weeks ago, the Raiders got bombed at Atlanta 43-6, and five weeks ago, they lost at Kansas City 35-31.
At 7-7 overall, Las Vegas trails Miami and Baltimore by two games in the battle for the final AFC playoff spot, with two games to go. So the Raiders have zero room for error.
These teams met most recently two seasons ago, a 28-20 Dolphins victory. Ryan Tannehill quarterbacked Miami that day against Carr for the Raiders.
NFL Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS in the month of December under Coach Gruden.
- Home teams are 111-112 SU, 107-115 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 146-76 SU, 96-125 ATS (43 percent) in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 48-38 ATS in the NFL this season.
Unders are 9-5 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 44 total points. Overs are 10-3-1 in Raiders games this season, which are averaging 57 points. Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week. Overs are 111-109 in the NFL this season.
Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction Week 16
These teams are headed in different directions as of late, and we usually love betting hot against cold. However, we still believe Miami's offense is better with Fitzpatrick rather than Tagovailoa. Yes, the Dolphins are winning and covering with Tago, but that's been mainly thanks to the defense. Miami produced just 13 points against Denver a few weeks ago, 20 against the Jets, 19 against Cincinnati, and had zero at halftime last week. Las Vegas, meanwhile, may be 1-4 over its previous five games, but it was right in three of those losses. And even if Carr can't play, Mariota looked good last week. Finally, we're never shy about betting against the public flow. We'll take the Raiders and the points here.