Finding the Best Value in Betting NFL Season Props
Along with added betting options for NFL futures heading into a new season, NFL season-long props are another popular way to add some early football action to your overall betting strategy.
From wagering on individual player performances to props covering the season-long results for each of the 32 NFL teams, there is always some solid betting value to be found in the posted preseason odds.
NFL Player Performance Props
The category of season-long player performance props has been expanded over the past few years. The three most basic performance props cover which quarterback throws for the most yards, which receiver has the most yards catching the ball, and which running back rushes for the most yards.
This has been expanded to performance props for individual players. For example, you can bet the OVER/UNDER on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ total passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions.
That expanded list covers all the top playmakers at the quarterback, receiver, running back, and tight end positions for all 32 teams.
Successfully betting season-long player performance props can get a bit overwhelming without some sort of a betting strategy in place.
The first tip is to start with the odds for players on the teams you follow the most. If you are a big fan of the NFC West, limit your betting strategy to players from the four teams in that division.
Be careful to avoid bias in your player prop bets. Just because you want Dak Prescott to throw 35 or more touchdowns this season does not necessary mean he will.
Every OVER/UNDER or YES/NO comes with corresponding money lines for betting each option. For the most part, these money lines were set at -110 for each option when the prop was first released. Any changes in the updated money line are due to the early money coming in.
Another tip for betting player props is to look for plus money betting opportunities. If you can get +120 odds that Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert goes OVER on 32 touchdown throws, there could be some solid value in that bet.
NFL Team Performance Props
Another category of season-long props covers individual NFL teams. An excellent example of these types of betting options would be a team's odds to make the playoffs.
As perennial contenders, there is a very good chance that the Chiefs will make the postseason field. You still might want to refrain on betting the -1200 odds they do.
What you want to look for is a few teams on the rise with plus money odds for YES. You can also bet on specific playoff teams from last season, taking a step backward. Every season, the turnover in the actual playoff field yields at least three or four new teams. Some seasons even more.
Another example of these types of props adds betting odds to where a particular team ends up in the final division standings. The odds for these props correlate directly with the posted NFL futures odds to win a division title. Props based on the actual finishing order in the four-team standings can be used as a way to double down on a futures bet.
For example, if you have the Pittsburgh Steelers winning the AFC North as +425 third-favorites, you should be able to get decent plus money on the prop odds for a first-place finish.