Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Week 9 ATS Pick - Betting Odds

David Schwab
Date: November 6, 8:30 pm
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Detroit -2.5
Total: 43

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Monday Night Football on ESPN heads to fabled Lambeau Field in Week 9 for a key NFC North showdown between the 3-4 Detroit Lions and the 4-3 Green Bay Packers. Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET).
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Detroit at Green Bay Game Overview<br />
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Just when you think the Lions have turned the corner as legitimate playoff contenders in the NFC, they revert to their old form with a bad loss. Following an encouraging 3-1 start both straight-up and against the spread, they have now dropped their last three games (SU and ATS) with last Sunday night’s 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh as three-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 44.5 points in that loss after going OVER in four of Detroit’s first six games.
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As goes veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, so goes an offense that is 19th in the league in yards gained and ninth in scoring with 25.1 points per game. When he is on is game, Stafford is one of the best pure passers in the NFL. However, even after nine years in the pros inconsistency remains a big part of that game. He put the ball up 45 times against the Steelers for 423 yards and the net result was zero offensive touchdowns. The Lions’ defense has also had its issues stopping other teams this season with a points-allowed average of 24.1 that is ranked 25th in the NFL.
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Green Bay limped into last week’s much-needed bye at 4-3 SU with a 3-4 record ATS in its first seven games. Two weeks ago, the Packers came up short against New Orleans in a tough 26-17 loss as 3.5-point favorites at home. The total has stayed UNDER in their last two games after going OVER in the previous four outings. Green Bay is 2-2 ATS in its first four home games this season.
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With a healthy Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers would have been a touchdown favorite for Monday night, but that is clearly not the case. Brett Hundley threw for 87 yards while completing fewer than half of his 25 passes against the Saints in his first start as Rodgers’ replacement and the prospect for a better showing on Monday night is not all that promising even with an extra week to prepare. It will be tough for Green Bay to rely all that heavily on a ground game that is 18th in the NFL in yards per game. The Packers’ defense has also been sketchy at times, especially against the run. This unit is 23rd in the league in total yards allowed.
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Detroit at Green Bay Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games, but they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 division games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games against a NFC North opponent.
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The Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a bye week and they have gone 5-2 ATS in their las seven games against the NFC North. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games following a bye.
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Head-to-head in this NFC North tilt, the favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games between the two bitter rivals.
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Detroit at Green Bay Free Game Prediction

It is pretty obvious that both of these teams need a win on Monday night to keep their seasons from completely going in the tank, but barring a rare tie somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. Given Detroit’s current form on offense and Green Bay’s dilemma at quarterback, my ‘best bet’ pick is that neither team will look all that pretty in victory with the total staying UNDER the current 43-point line.

Free Pick: Take the Under 43
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