Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Free Pick - Odds - ATS Prediction

David Schwab
Date: September 28, 8:25 pm
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Green Bay -7
Total: 45.5

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An old-fashioned grudge match highlights Thursday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL season with the Chicago Bears coming into Lambeau Field to square off against the Green Bay Packers. Kickoff for this NFC North rivalry is set for 8:25 p.m. (ET) on CBS.
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Chicago at Green Bay Game Overview<br />
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The Bears just pulled off one of their biggest victories in quite some time with Sunday’s stunning 23-17 upset over Pittsburgh in overtime as 6.5-point home underdogs. This followed a 23-17 loss to Atlanta at home as 6.5-point underdogs in their season opener and a 29-7 setback against Tampa Bay as seven-point underdogs on the road. The total has stayed UNDER the closing betting line in all three games.
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Second-year running back Jordan Howard started the game against the Steelers with a three-yard touchdown run to give his team the early 7-0 lead and he ended it in overtime with a 19-yard scoring run that gave his team a much needed victory. Mike Glennon only completed 15-of-22 passing attempts for 101 yards, but Chicago ran up and down the field against Pittsburgh with 220 rushing yards on 38 carries for an average of 5.8 yards a run.
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Green Bay is off to a straight-up 2-1 start with Sunday’s 27-24 overtime victory against Cincinnati, but it fell to 1-2 against the spread after failing to cover as a seven-point favorite at home. The total went OVER the 47.5-point betting line in that game and it has gone OVER in two of the Packers’ first three games. They come into Thursday’s division tilt with a SU five-game winning streak at home.
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Aaron Rodgers picked up 72 of his 313 passing yards against the Bengals on one pass play in overtime that set up the game-winning 27-yard field goal. He completed six of his 28 completions to Geronimo Allison for 122 yards and another six to Jordy Nelson for 52 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay only managed to pick up 64 yards on the ground as part of a rushing offense that is ranked 29th in the NFL with an average of 69 yards per game.
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Chicago at Green Bay Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven division games.
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The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a SU win and they have covered in five of their last six home games. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games against the NFC North.
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Head-to-head in the NFC North rivalry, the favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Green Bay.
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Free Week 4 Prediction

Chicago brings some solid momentum into this Thursday night’s game, but it has just one SU victory in the last seven games between these two bitter rivals. The Packers have not always looked like an elite NFL team this season. However they continue to find ways to win, especially when playing at home. The lean in this one is towards Green Bay covering the touchdown spread, but I am betting that the total on Thursday night stays UNDER the current 45.5-point line.

Free Pick: Take the Under 45.5
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