Chargers vs. Saints Pick - Week 5 Odds & Predictions

Date: 
October 12, 8:15 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LAC +7 / NO -7
Total: 
49.5un -115

It's the old veteran versus the new kid when Drew Brees and the Saints host Justin Herbert and the Chargers for Monday Night Football at the Superdome. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, but the Chargers already own covers against two pretty good teams, the Chiefs and Buccaneers, this season. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 5's NFL betting odds opened the Saints at -7.5 over the Chargers, with an over/under of 52. Early betting action then dipped that total to 51.

Chargers vs. Saints Set-Up

The Chargers started 1-0 this season but are 0-3 since, after losing at Tampa Bay last week 38-31. San Diego (yes, we still call them "San Diego") fell behind 7-0 early, then scored the next 24 points of the game, including seven off a defensive pick-six, and took a 24-14 lead into halftime. The Chargers still led 31-28 through three quarters but came up empty from there, producing just 12 yards on their two fourth-quarter possessions, as victory slipped away. However, the Bolts did hang on for the cover as 7.5-point underdogs. On the day San Diego got out-gained by the Buccaneers 484-324, out-rushed 115-46, made only 15 first downs to 28 for Tampa, and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split. The Chargers also committed a terrible turnover late in the second quarter, leading to a Tampa touchdown, and missed a field goal at a critical point in the third quarter, when three points would have helped temper the Bucs' rally. Two weeks ago, San Diego lost outright at home to Carolina 21-16 as a six-point favorite, even though they outgained the Panthers 436-302. Unfortunately, four turnovers did them in. Three weeks ago, the Bolts lost at home to defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City 23-20 in overtime but covered at +8.5.

So while they're 1-3 overall, San Diego should be at least 2-2, maybe even 3-1.

Meanwhile, New Orleans snapped a two-game losing skid with a 35-29 win at Detroit last week. The Saints spotted the Lions the first 14 points of the game, then used a 35-0 run spanning the halves to take control. New Orleans allowed Detroit to get within six points with four minutes left but ran the clock dry from there to preserve the victory and the cover as a three-point road favorite.

For the day, the Saints out-gained the Lions 392-281, out-rushed Detroit 164-90, and dominated time of possession by a 37:23 split.

Two weeks ago, New Orleans lost at home to Green Bay 37-30, even though the Saints out-gained and out-rushed the Packers. Three weeks ago, New Orleans lost at Las Vegas 34-24, but the Saints out-gained the Raiders, too.

At 2-2 overall, New Orleans trails first-place Tampa Bay by one game in the NFC South.

On the injury front, San Diego could be without four offensive starters, after RB Austin Ekeler pulled a hamstring last week. Over on the other sidelines, New Orleans is playing without WR Michael Thomas and both starting cornerbacks, among several others. Then again, just about every team in the League is missing key people at the moment, for one reason or another.

There was some talk early this week about moving this game to a neutral site because of bad weather headed toward Louisiana, but that had yet to be determined.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a crazy 35-34 Saints win out in San Diego. The Chargers led that game 34-21 midway through the fourth quarter but turned the ball over twice, helping New Orleans rally for the victory.

NFL Betting Trends

  • The Chargers are 4-6 SU but 5-3-2 ATS on the road over the last season-plus.
  • The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS as dogs of seven points or more over the last season-plus.
  • The Saints are 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS at home over the last season-plus.
  • The Saints are 4-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points over the last season-plus.
  • Favorites are 42-20 SU but only 29-32 ATS in the NFL this season.
  • Home teams are just 31-31 SU, 28-33 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 3-1 in Chargers games this season, which have averaged 45 total points against an average over/under of 44.
  • Overs are 4-0 in Saints games this season, which have averaged a healthy 62 points against an average total of 50.
  • Overs are 36-26 in the NFL this season.
  • Overs are 9-7 in games with totals in the 50's this season.

Chargers vs. Saints MNF Prediction

Both these teams are banged up, which makes 7 points look like more than usual. New Orleans doesn't quite look like the team that won 13 games last season; they might miss Thomas. The Chargers, meanwhile, played both the Chiefs and Bucs tough and could have won both those games. Also,  Herbert looks like he can play at this level. We'll take San Diego and the points here.
 
Free Pick: 
Chargers +7
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