Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals Point Spread Pick - Odds - Free ATS Prediction

Jeff Scott
Date: October 8, 1:00 pm
Location: Paul Brown Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Bengals -3
Total: 39.5

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Buffalo improved to 3-1 with a 23-17 victory at Atlanta last week. Cincinnati won their first game of the season last Sunday, a 31-7 pasting of winless Cleveland.
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The Bills have had their troubles running the ball in 2017 after leading the league the past 2 seasons. RB LeSean McCoy is averaging only 3.2 ypc but gained 76 yards on 20 carries vs. the Falcons. He also leads the team with 21 receptions so look for him to get 25+ touches against the Bengals. QB Tyrod Taylor has an impressive 5-1 TD/INT ratio and has a passer rating of 100.7. He’s far from an elite thrower but he is making good decisions and not doing anything to hurt the team. Cincinnati’s defense has held 3 of 4 opponents to less than 130 passing yards so don’t expect Taylor to go off in this one. WR Jordan Matthews is dealing with an injury and may not be available for this game (check status). TE Charles Clay has developed a good rapport with Taylor and leads the club in yardage and TD catches. WRs Andre Holmes and rookie Zay Jones need to step up in this one to ease the pressure on Taylor.
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The Bengals offense has experienced a turnaround with Bill Lazor’s appointment to off. co. They have scored 55 points in their past 2 games after scoring only 9 (no TDs) in their first 2 games. QB Andy Dalton has been the main beneficiary of the change as he has completed over 80% of his passes and thrown 6 TD passes to 0 picks in the past 2 games. He’ll face a real challenge this week as Buffalo has harassed and pressured opposing QBs into several mistakes. They have picked off 6 passes already and given up only 1 passing TD. They have 11 sacks on the year and face a team that is rotating OTs trying to find the right fit. Dalton has been sacked 14 times and look for him to face a lot of pressure this week. Rookie RB Joe Mixon has assumed the starter’s role but is averaging only 2.6 ypc. RB Gio Bernard leads the team with a 4.9 ypc average and is 2nd on the team in receiving yardage and tied for 1st with 2 TD catches. He may be the man the Bills defense needs to worry about.
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Public Money Consensus<br />
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In this NFL matchup between Buffalo and Cincinnati the public appears to be leaning heavily to the Bills getting the 3 points with 66% on board with this thinking. The over/under bettors are evenly split on this 39.5 point game total with 50% a side.
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Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals Week 5 ATS Prediction

Buffalo has been very opportunistic in 2017 and the defense is a big reason why. Freed from the ill-suited 3-4 of Rex Ryan, the defense is back to their pre-Ryan days of getting after the QB and forcing TOs. Dalton has thrown 4 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles on the year so the Bills will look to force him into more. Buffalo has done well in this matchup and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bengals and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 visits. Having a weapon like PK Steven Hauschka (4 53+-yard FGs last 2 weeks) could help the Bills in a close game late.

Free Pick: Take the Bills +3
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