One of the biggest betting events of the NFL offseason is its annual draft of the best players in the college ranks looking to take their football career to the next level. The annual draft consists of seven rounds over three days, but most of the focus is pointed towards the first round of picks on Thursday night. Most of the betting props that have been released at online sportsbooks such as MyBookie, BetStars, and BetAmerica are based on the first 32 players coming off the board.
Three Basic NFL Draft Betting Tips
- Do not place too much weight on mock drafts
- Do not be swayed by the national media covering the draft.
- Pay closer attention to the local coverage of the NFL’s 32 teams
Mock drafts have become extremely popular in recent years to the point where there are far too many to follow. Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have a hard enough time agreeing with one another as the top two NFL Draft guru’s in the nation.
A more productive way to approach the upcoming draft is to pay closer attention to the player rankings. Often times there is far more consistency in how and where a particular player is ranked. This can help in determining the best prospect in each specific position.
An even less reliable source of information concerning the draft is the national media. They tend to latch onto all the mock drafts as their primary source of information. Another red flag is the significant networks touting their NFL insiders as subject matter experts when it comes to the opening round of picks. The reality of the situation is that most of the 32 teams are still not sure what they are going to do when they are officially ‘on the clock’.
The only team that can dictate its actual opening selection is the Arizona Cardinals with the first overall pick of this year’s draft. Even though the betting odds at -1000 point heavily to former Oklahoma quarterback and 2018 Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray coming off the board first, I would not bet on it at those risky odds.
You might be able to find some solid clues in the local media covering each of the 32 NFL teams. There is still quite a bit of guesswork involved, but the local beat writers still have a closer handle on which way a team may be leaning. No NFL front office is going to tip their hand as to their draft plans, but you may be able to use some of that local information to add extra value to any real prop bets placed.
Finding The Best Value in NFL Draft Props
Risking $1000 to win $100 that Murray is the first overall pick in the upcoming draft does not offer any value in my book. Betting that former Ole Miss standout DK Metcalf is the first wide receiver to be drafted at -165 makes more sense. You can always hedge that bet with one on his actual draft position. The odds that he is taken within the first 12 picks are set at +155 which could be the perfect hedge if you are really high on this player coming off the board early in the round.
The OVER/UNDER on quarterbacks selected in the opening round of this year’s draft is set at 3.5 with the betting odds favoring the OVER at -175. While the risk is high, there are more than enough teams looking for their next franchise quarterback to add some value to this bet.
There are only three quarterbacks ranked in the top 32 players (Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock) but you still get the feeling that at least one team out there will bite on Daniel Jones, out of Duke as the next QB on the list to take this prop OVER.