Troy State Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars Point Spread Pick

Troy State Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars Point Spread Pick

Keith F
Date: October 20, 7:30 pm
Location: Ladd-Peebles Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: South Alabama Jaguars +9.5
Total: OFF

<p>
It’s The Battle of The Belt, an intra-state Alabama rivalry featuring a clash of Sun Belt foes. This year’s edition will take place at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama where the South Alabama Jaguars (3-3) will host their hated nemesis the Troy State Trojans (5-1). In the last meeting between the two, the Jaguars defeated the Trojans 24-18 at Troy. The game will be broadcasted under the umbrella of the ESPN Sports Network at 7:30 PM EDT on Thursday, October 20th.
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<h2>
Troy State Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars Overview<br />
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<p>
The Trojans come in off yet another win improving to 5-1 with a win over Georgia State last week. The Trojans have posted some impressive results up to this point. Troy State owns wins over Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg and nearly pulled off an upset as a 34.5 point pup at #3 Clemson in early September.
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For the Jaguars, they come in off a 17-7 loss against defending Sun Belt champion Arkansas State. The Jaguars overall stand at 3-3 and own a landmark win to kick off the 2016 season at Mississippi State. The Jags also sport a two-game winning streak against Troy in this rivalry series.
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<h2>
Troy State at South Alabama Betting Trends<br />
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<ul>
<li>
Troy State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall.
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<li>
Troy State is 5-1 SU in their last 6 fixtures.
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<li>
USA has won the last 2 meetings.
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<li>
USA is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 contests.
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<h2>
Public Money Consensus<br />
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<p>
In the early going we have seen 75% of the public hop on the Trojans against the spread, spotting the home points to the hosts South Alabama. As a result, the line has moved half of a point since open at 8.5. Generally, markets in mid-major contests such as these are often very askew. There are many reasons why this is the case. First, the teams participating are often unranked, less broadcasted, less known and of little interest to the consensus at-large. In a Sun Belt contest featuring teams like USA and Troy, markets often pay little mind to the combatants compared to a Power 5 contest with ranked opponents per say. The Trojans have been a cash cow all season long but now they enter in a situation to disappoint.
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Troy Trojans at South Alabama Prediction

The Jaguars have had the Trojans’ calling card and they have owned them recently in this series. USA has been grossly undervalued and this has been reflected in recent trends. Let’s not forget that this same team traveled to Starkville, Mississippi and knocked off the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Now, they get a team at home that they know they can beat and points to boot? There is a tremendous amount of value here in the Jaguars and we will have to hop in and fade the public in the 2016 rendition of The Battle of The Belt.

Free Pick: Take South Alabama +9.5
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