South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Knights Free Point Spread Pick - Odds - NCAAF Prediction

South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Knights Free Point Spread Pick - Odds - NCAAF Prediction

David Schwab
Date: November 25, 3:30 pm
Location: Spectrum Stadium
TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: UCF -11.5
Total: OFF

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The 9-1 South Florida Bulls cap-off their regular season with a trip to Spectrum Stadium in Orlando to square-off against the rival 10-0 Central Florida Knights with the AAC East Division title up for grabs. Game time is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET) on ABC.
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South Florida at Central Florida Game Overview<br />
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The Bulls snuck by Tulsa last Thursday 27-20 as 23.5-point home favorites to set up this Friday’s AAC showdown for the East Division title. They have failed to cover in their last four games closing as double-digit favorites each time as part of a 4-6 overall record against the spread. South Florida has just one SU loss on the year against nine wins and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of those 10 games.
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To get past the Knights in this matchup, look for heavy dose of Quinton Flowers both passing and running the ball. The senior quarterback has completed 147 passes and thrown for 2,097 yards and 17 touchdowns against five interceptions on 275 passing attempts. He also leads the team in rushing with 870 yards and nine touchdown runs on 162 carries. The Bulls are averaging 37.5 points per game while holding opposing teams to 19.9 points on defense.
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Central Florida has come out on the winning end in its first 10 games while going 6-3-1 ATS. It covered as a 13-point road favorite in Saturday’s 45-19 romp over Temple. The total went OVER 58.5 points in that game and it has gone OVER in six of the Knights’ first 10 games this year. They are 3-2 ATS at home and 5-3-1 ATS when closing as favorites.
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Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton has pretty much gone the distance for UCF this season. He has completed 69.6 percent of his 276 passing attempts for 2,928 yards and 26 scores while getting picked off five times. Another sophomore, Adrian Killins Jr. has been the team’s leading rusher with 629 yards and eight touchdowns on 84 attempts for an average of 7.5 yards per carry. The Knights’ are ranked first in the nation when it comes to scoring with an average of 47.5 points per game.
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South Florida at Central Florida Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Bulls have failed to cover in five of their last six road games; however they have covered in five of their last six games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five conference games.
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The Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Friday games, but they fall to 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games.
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Head-to-head in this AAC East showdown, the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the past four meetings.
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South Florida at Central Florida Free Game Prediction

Central Florida is the better overall team in this matchup as one of the top teams in the nation, but a double-digit spread against a fierce conference rival that is also one of the best teams in the AAC could be a bit too much to handle. I would lean towards the Knights at home this Friday afternoon, but I am taking the 11.5 points and the Bulls to cover as my ‘best bet’ pick.

Free Pick: Take South Florida -11.5
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