Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten Championship Pick

Date: 
December 7, 8:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Ohio State -16.5
Total: 
56

Ohio State reigns as the No. 1 team in the latest College Football Playoff standings heading into this Big Ten Conference championship match against Wisconsin Saturday night in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes just beat the Badgers rather badly six weeks ago, and they're favored by better than two touchdowns for this game. Which way are we going here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football's Big Ten championship game betting odds opened Ohio State at -16.5 over Wisconsin, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action then goosed that total to 56.

Buckeyes vs. Badgers Set-Up

Ohio State carries an 18-game winning streak into Saturday, after mobbing Michigan last week 56-27. The Buckeyes spotted the Wolverines the first six points of the game but led 28-16 by halftime. OSU then scored the first two touchdowns out of the locker to take control, on its way to the victory and the cover as a favorite of 8.5 points.

For the day Ohio State out-gained Michigan 577-396, out-rushed the Wolverines 264-91 and won the time of possession by a margin of 36:24.

Two weeks ago, the Buckeyes beat Penn State 28-17 but couldn't cover as 20-point favorites. Three weeks ago, OSU beat Rutgers but couldn't cover a ridiculous 52-point spread. But prior to that, the Buckeyes had covered eight games in a row. That is a hell of a trick for a team that's favored by so much so often.

At 12-0 overall, Ohio State sits at No. 1 in this week's CFP standings. A win Saturday and the Buckeyes are in, and they could probably even absorb a loss and make it. But why take a chance?

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Wisconsin, meanwhile, owns a four-game winning streak, after beating rival Minnesota last week 38-17 to claim the Big Ten West title. The Badgers spotted the Gophers the first seven points of the game, then scored the next 17 to take a lead they would not relinquish, on their way to the W and the money as a three-point favorite.

On the day Wisconsin out-gained Minnesota 453-372 and out-rushed the Gophers 173-76.

Two weeks ago, the Badgers beat Purdue 45-24; three weeks ago, they beat Nebraska 37-21, and four weeks ago, they held off Iowa 24-22. So Wisconsin's been winning games, although not exactly against a Murderers Row of opponents.

At 10-2 overall, the Badgers probably won't make the CFP even if they win Saturday. What they're really playing for is a Rose Bowl berth.

One potentially important injury note; Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields tweaked an MCL last week, and while he's expected to play Saturday, he could be limited. And heaven forbid if he takes a hit or two.

Buckeyes-Badgers Recent History

Ohio State owns a seven-game winning streak over Wisconsin, going 5-1-1 ATS along the way. That run includes victories in the Big Ten championship game in 2014 and '17 and a 38-7 decision in Columbus back in October. The Buckeyes only led that game 10-7 in the third quarter but scored the last four touchdowns for the win and the cover as 14-point favorites.

Ohio State out-gained the Badgers that day 431-191, out-rushed Wisconsin 264-83, and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Also, that game played under a total of 48.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Wisconsin is 8-4 ATS as an underdog under Coach Chryst.
  • Wisconsin is 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS with Jack Coan as the starter at QB.
  • Ohio State is 6-0 ATS this season when favored by less than 20 points.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 6-6 in Badgers games this season, which are averaging 50 total points.
  • Overs are 6-5-1 in Buckeyes games this season, which are averaging 62 points.
  • Unders are 4-2 over the last six meetings between these two teams.

Ohio State at Wisconsin Big Ten Championship Prediction 12/7/2019

Ohio State is very likely to win this game and move on to the CFP. However, during the Buckeyes' seven-game winning streak against Wisconsin, five of those games were decided by seven points or less. And the meeting earlier this season was close well into the third quarter before OSU pulled away. They might not win this one outright, but we're backing the Badgers plus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take Wisconsin +16.5