North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Total Pick

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Total Pick

David Schwab
Date: November 10, 7:30 pm
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium
TV: NBC Sports Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: North Carolina -10.5
Total: 59.5

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In a renewal of one of the best rivalries in the ACC, the North Carolina Tar Heels will make the short trip to Wallace Wade Stadium this Thursday night to square off against the Duke Blue Devils. Kickoff in Durham is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
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North Carolina at Duke Game Overview<br />
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The Tar Heels remain in the running for the ACC’s Coastal Division title at 5-1 straight-up in conference play, but their margin for error coming down the stretch is paper thin with an earlier loss to 5-1 Virginia Tech. North Carolina is 7-2 SU overall with a 6-3 record against the spread. It is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and it has covered in four of five games when closing as a favorite. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Tar Heels’ last five games.
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Fueled by a passing game that is ranked 20th in the nation in yards per game (306.8), North Carolina has a scoring average of 34.2 points. Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky has completed an impressive 70.3 percent of his 317 passing attempts for 2,707 yards and 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Elijah Hood has led the running game with 644 yards and eight scores on 108 carries for an average of six yards an attempt.
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Duke comes into this bitter rivalry with a SU three-game losing streak, but it has been able to cover the spread in all three defeats as underdogs. This past Saturday, the Blue Devils battled Virginia Tech for all four quarters in a 24-21 loss at home as 11-point underdogs. They are now 3-6 on the year SU with a 6-3 record ATS. Duke is still looking for its first SU conference win of the season against five losses and the total has stayed UNDER in four of those five games.
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The one bright spot for the Blue Devils in what has turned into a very disappointing season has been the play of a defense that is allowing an average of 23.9 points a game. Unfortunately, this offense is ranked 95th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 points a game. Daniel Jones has started all nine games at quarterback and the freshman has thrown for 2,037 yards and 11 scores while getting picked off nine times. Shaun Wilson has rushed for 449 yards on 111 carries in place of an injured Jela Duncan as the team’s previous lead back.
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North Carolina at Duke Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played on Thursday and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last seven Thursday games.
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The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and they have covered in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five home games.
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Head-to-head in this ACC Coastal Division clash, the home team has covered in five of the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last five games.
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North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Prediction

There is no doubt that North Carolina is a much better team than Duke on both sides of the ball, but I never feel comfortable laying that many points on a road favorite in such a heated rivalry. The Blue Devils do have some momentum after almost upending Virginia Tech, but this game still boils down to a ‘must win’ for the Tar Heels so anything can happen.

Even though the total in this matchup has favored the OVER in recent years, I am still looking for a low-scoring affair this Thursday night to make my “best bet” pick the UNDER on the current 59.5-point betting line.

Free Pick: Take the Under 59.5
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