Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview

Darin Zank
Date: August 26, 2:30 pm
Location: Aviva Stadium
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ND -20
Total: 49

The 2023 college football season opens overseas again when Navy and Notre Dame do battle in Dublin, Ireland Saturday, Aug. 26. The Fighting Irish are looking to return to College Football Playoff contention in their second season under Coach Freeman. The Midshipmen, meanwhile, are playing their first season under a new coaching regime, following three straight losing campaigns.

Notre Dame's favored by three touchdowns for this 96th meeting with Navy. How are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

Navy-Notre Dame Betting Odds

The college football betting market opened Notre Dame at -18 over Navy, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action then bumped the Irish two points to -20.

Navy-Notre Dame College Football Betting Preview

The Midshipmen return 17 starters this season from a team that played 4-8 last season, then fired their head coach. But Navy also played 7-5 ATS last year, pulling three upsets and keeping several other games close as underdogs. The Middies beat a couple of good teams in East Carolina and Central Florida and lost close games to Air Force, SMU, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. But it was a season-ending 20-17 double-overtime loss to rival Army that spelled the end for Coach Niumatalolo.

Navy's new head coach is Brian Newberry, the program's defensive coordinator the last four seasons. Over that span, the Midshipmen defense held foes to 345 yards per game.

Eight starters are back on a Middies offense that only averaged 327 YPG last season, but they include last year's leading rusher and four along the offensive line. And nine starters are back on a defense that limited opponents to 339 YPG last year, including three up front and the entire secondary.

Navy, despite the change at HC, is playing against a season's wins over/under this season of 6.5.

Meanwhile, the Irish return 13 starters from a team that played 9-4 last season. Notre Dame started 0-2 last year with a tough loss to Ohio State and a bad loss to Marshall, then won eight of its next nine games, beating the ranked likes of North Carolina, BYU, Syracuse, and Clemson. The Irish then lost their regular-season finale at USC but finished on a good note, beating South Carolina in the Gator Bowl 45-38.

Five starters are back on a Notre Dame offense that averaged 396 YPG last season, including its leading rusher and three along the offensive line. The Irish also brought in longtime former Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, who's already started 45 games and thrown for nearly 13,000 yards in his collegiate career. And eight starters are back on a defense that held foes to 329 YPG last year, including six of the back seven.

After winning nine games last season, Notre Dame is playing against a wins O/U of nine for this season.

Navy-Notre Dame Recent History

The Irish are 10-1 SU but only 5-6 ATS over the last 11 meetings with Navy, favored by too much too often. Last year in Baltimore, Notre Dame led 35-13 at the half, took its foot off the gas, went scoreless in the second half, and won 35-32 but came up short ATS at -16.

Also, that game played way over a total of 41 as the teams combined for over 700 yards of offense.

In fact, the over is 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these teams.

College Football Betting Trends

Notre Dame played just 1-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.

Navy played 6-0 ATS as a double-digit dog last season.

Totals Report

The overs played 7-5 in Navy games last season, which averaged 45 total points.

The overs played 7-6 in Notre Dame games last season, which averaged 55 points.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame is just the better team in this match-up, striving to do more in its second season under Coach Freeman, with an experienced rental quarterback and a great defense. Navy, meanwhile, is playing its first game under Coach Newberry, and while he’s keeping most of the same systems in place the team is still likely to go through a learning curve. Also, the Irish led Navy by three touchdowns last year, then pissed the cover away. That shouldn’t happen this time around. We’re giving the points here with Notre Dame.
 

Free Pick: Take Notre Dame -20
Get $60 Free Picks