Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Pick - Odds and ATS Predictions

Date: 
October 13, 3:30 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Penn State -13.5
Total: 
55.5

The Betting Line

Penn State opened as a -14.5 point spread home favorite with the total offered at 56.5 and we’ve seen both odds lower. Current odds on the NCAA board have the host listed down a point at -13.5 and likewise for the O/U line available at 55.5.

Last Games: Michigan State fell to with a shocking 29-19 home loss to Northwestern obviously failing to cover the spread as a 10.5-point favorite and the total crossed OVER the 43.5 line. Penn State had a bye last week, and in their previous game, they suffered their first loss of the season falling to 4-1 with a late 4th quarter 27-26 home loss to Ohio State where they covered as a 3-point underdog, and the total went UNDER.

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Betting Preview

Michigan State fell out of the top 25 with their loss to Northwestern in their last game. The upset loss dropped the Spartans to 1-1 in Big 10 play, and besides facing Penn State in this game, they still have to play No. 12 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State.

In the loss to Northwestern the Spartans had more total yards than the Wildcats (425 to 381), held them to only eight rushing yards, and they had fewer turnovers (2-1) and still lost. They were torched in the air giving up 373 passing yards, and while Penn State's strength on offense is the run, they still rank a solid 55th in the nation averaging 248.8 passing yards per game.

Unlike Penn State Michigan State’s offense is led by the pass. Brian Lewerke passed for 329 yards with a TD in the loss to Northwestern, but he was also picked off for the sixth time to go with just six TD passes. The Spartans only rank 110th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and Connor Heyward leads the team with only 147 rushing yards, and he couldn’t get on track last week with 12 yards on five carries in the loss to Northwestern. MSU will be facing a PSU pass defense that ranks 33rd in the nation.

Penn State came close to upsetting Ohio State in their last game and that loss hurt since they are now 1-1 in the Big 10 East Division while Ohio State and Michigan are 3-0.

Penn State outgained Ohio State by more than 100 yards (492 to 398), and they had a 12-point lead in the 4th quarter but allowed two passing TD in the 4th quarter. Trace McSorley provided most of the offense for the Nittany Lions in the game passing for 286 yards with two TD and no INT and also led the team rushing for 175 yards.

After rushing for 200 yards against Illinois Penn State’s leading rusher in Miles Sanders only rushed for 43 yards averaging a weak 2.7 yards per carry in the loss to Ohio State.

While Michigan State ranks 1st in the nation in run defense, they rate a disturbing 122nd in pass defense.

Head to Head:

Last season at Michigan State the Spartans beat the Nittany Lions 27-24. The last time these teams met at Penn State, the Nittany Lions defeated the Spartans 45-12.

Statistically

Michigan State Spartans (3-2 SU 1-4 ATS 4-1 O/U) vs. No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1 SU 4-1 ATS 4-1 O/U)

On the season Michigan State ranks 82nd in the nation in total offense, and 28th in total defense and Penn State ranks 14th in total offense and 45th in total defense.

Sagarin Rankings

Michigan State: 78.41
Penn State: 93.32

Injuries

MICHIGAN STATE

[G] 10/07/2018 - David Beedle is out indefinitely ( Arm )
[FB] 10/07/2018 - Collin Lucas is "?" Saturday vs. Penn State ( Undisclosed )
[WR] 10/07/2018 - Cody White is out indefinitely ( Hand )
[RB] 10/07/2018 - LJ Scott is "?" Saturday vs. Penn State ( Hamstring )
[G] 10/07/2018 - Kevin Jarvis is "?" Saturday vs. Penn State ( Ankle )
[WR] 10/07/2018 - Jalen Nailor is "?" Saturday vs. Penn State ( Undisclosed )
[P] 09/11/2018 - Jake Hartbarger is OUT 6-8 weeks ( Leg )
[DT] 09/20/2018 - Mufi Hunt is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[CB] 08/06/2018 - Josiah Scott is out indefinitely ( Leg )
[CB] 08/04/2018 - Tyson Smith is out for season ( Medical )

PENN STATE

RB] 09/25/2018 - Mark Allen is out for season ( Undisclosed )
[LB] 08/28/2018 - Manny Bowen is out for season ( Left Team )
[DT] 10/08/2018 - Antonio Shelton is OUT 1st Half Saturday vs. Michigan State ( Targeting Suspension )
[DT] 10/08/2018 - Ellison Jordan is "?" Saturday vs. Michigan State ( Knee )

Key Betting Trends/Angles

  • MSU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games
  • MSU is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games after an ATS loss
  • MSU has an Over record of 6-1 in their previous seven games
  • PSU is 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games
  • PSU is 13-2-2 ATS in their previous 17 games against a team with a winning record
  • PSU has an Over record of 7-1 in their last eight games

Head to Head Trends

Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Penn State.

The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams.

In the last 19 games between these teams, the Over record is 15-3-1`.

In the last ten games between these teams at Penn State, the Over record is 8-2.

Next Game Michigan State vs. Michigan
Penn State @ Indiana

Get more details: Michigan State at Penn State Match-Up

Michigan State at Penn State Prediction 10//13/18

The Spartans have struggled to run the ball this season ranking 110th in the nation. They come into this game without their starting left guard David Beedle and may be without their starting right guard Kevin Jarvis, so I don't look for that to change this week. Michigan State has had success passing the ball, but they were kept in check by Indiana 219 yards and Central Michigan 185 and will be without their No. 2 receiving option in WR Cody White. They face a pass D that is ranked high in both yards per game and sacks. In their last game, Penn State held Ohio State to 74 passing yards below their previous season low, and the lack of a running game can have their defense teeing up on Brian Lewerke. The Nittany Lions have had an extra week to prepare for the Spartans, and while this is a big line and a public play, I believe Penn State is the way to go here.

Free Pick: 
Take the Nittany Lions -13.5

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