Louisville Cardinals vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Predictions

Date: 
September 6, 8:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Lou +9/Ole Miss -9
Total: 
74.5

On Monday, the ACC meets the SEC when Louisville takes on Ole Miss in the season opener for both teams on neutral turf in Atlanta. The Cardinals are entering their third season under Coach Satterfield, while the Rebels are entering their second season under Coach Kiffin. Both teams figure to improve upon last season when they played a combined 9-12.

Ole Miss, with a Heisman candidate at quarterback, is favored by double-digits for this game. Which way are we going here with our free NCAA football pick?

Louisville-Ole Miss Betting Odds

The college football betting lines opened Ole Miss at around -8 for this game, with an over/under of right around 75. Early betting action then bumped the Rebs to -10.

Louisville-Ole Miss College Football Betting Preview

The Cardinals return 13 starters this season from a team that played 4-7 last year and missed a bowl. Louisville opened last season with a win but lost its next four in a row, three to ranked outfits in Miami, Pitt, and Notre Dame, two of those by a total of eight points. The Cardinals then played 3-3 from there, losing two more close ones, to finish their second season under Coach Satterfield three games worse than the first.

So since posting a winning record eight seasons in a row from 2010-17, Louisville now has two losing seasons in its last three.

The Cardinals actually out-gained opponents last year by a per-game margin of 444-369 but came in with a -12 turnover ratio, which really hurt.

Seven starters are back on offense for Louisville, including junior quarterback Malik Cunningham (25 career starts) and four along the offensive line. But they lose last year's leading rusher and top two receivers. And six starters are back on defense, although they must replace five of last year's top seven tacklers.

The Rebels, meanwhile, return 17 starters from a team that played 5-5 last year, its first under Coach Kiffin, and won a bowl. Ole Miss started last year with a loss to a ranked Florida, beat Kentucky, then lost three in a row, although it gave Alabama a helluva battle and covered easily as a 23-point underdog. The Rebs then won three straight to reach 4-4, then lost a close one to LSU. Despite a 4-5 record Ole Miss received a bowl bid and beat a shorthanded Indiana team 26-20 to finish 5-5.

Still, the Rebels haven’t posted a winning record since 2015.

Ole Miss averaged 556 yards per game on offense last year but gave up 519 YPG.

Eight starters are back on offense for the Rebs, including sophomore QB Matt Corral (14 career starts), last year's leading rusher, and four along the offensive line. And nine starters are back on defense, including seven of the back eight and five of last year's top six tacklers. So you'd figure Ole Miss might be a little better on that side of the ball.

This will be the first-ever meeting between these two teams.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Louisville is 3-7 both SU and ATS in its last ten games against the SEC.
  • Ole Miss is 1-1 both SU and ATS in its last two games against the ACC.
  • Louisville is 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS its last eight games on neutral fields.
  • Ole Miss is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS its last six games on neutral fields.

Totals Report

Overs played 7-4 in Louisville games last season, which averaged 56 total points.

Overs played 6-4 in Ole Miss games last season, which averaged 77 points.

Louisville vs. Mississippi Prediction 9/6/21

Ole Miss owns one of the best offenses in college football, and its defense can't help but be bet-ter this season. Louisville, meanwhile, has talent at QB but holes to fill at the skills spots and on defense, which was its stronger unit last year. Also, Coach Kiffin would like to get his QB in the Heisman conversation, so we won't be surprised if the Rebels try to run up a score. We don't like going along with the better flow, but we're giving the points here with Ole Miss. 

Free Pick: 
Take Ole Miss -9