Iowa State Cyclones vs. Memphis Tigers Liberty Bowl Pick - Odds - Free NCAAF Predictions

December 30, 12:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Memphis -3.5

As part of a four-game bowl schedule on Saturday, Dec. 30, the Big 12’s Iowa State Cyclones face the AAC’s Memphis Tigers in the 2017 AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Game time from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in the city of Memphis is set for 12:30 p.m. on ABC.

Iowa State vs. Memphis Game Overview

The Cyclones ended their regular season on a down note in a tight 20-19 loss to Kansas State, but they still managed to cover as two-point road underdogs. This win left them 7-5 straight-up on the year with a profitable 8-2-2 record ATS. Iowa State posted a 4-2-2 record ATS in eight games closing as an underdog and the total stayed UNDER in eight of its 12 games overall.

Iowa State was one of four teams in the Big 12 at 5-4 SU in conference play behind an offense that averaged 29.9 points per game complementing a stout defensive effort that held opposing teams to an average of 21.0 points on the other side of the ball. Kyle Kempt took the majority of the snaps at quarterback and he went on to throw for 264 yards and two touchdowns in the season-ending loss to Kansas State after missing five starts earlier in the year. David Montgomery led the ground game with 1,094 yards and 11 touchdowns on 234 carries. However, he still remains questionable for this game with an ankle injury.

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Memphis failed to win the AAC title game in a wild 62-55 loss to Central Florida in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog, but this did not diminish a very successful 2017 campaign at 10-2 SU with a 7-5 record ATS. The total went OVER the closing line in nine of the Tigers’ 12 games and they closed as favorites in eight of those contests; going 5-3 ATS.

Senior quarterback Riley Ferguson deserves a good deal of the credit for his team’s success this season behind a passing offense that was ranked eighth in the nation in yards per game (339.1). He ended up throwing for 3,971 yards and 36 touchdowns against nine interceptions while completing 63 percent of his 441 passing attempts. Anthony Miller was his top target with 92 receptions for 1,407 yards and 17 touchdowns including 14 catches for 195 yards and three scores in the AAC Championship Game.

Iowa State vs. Memphis Game Betting Trends

  • The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games and they have covered in 10 of their last 12 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in their last five bowl games.
  • The Tigers have failed to cover ATS in four of their last five bowl games and they are also 1-4 ATS in their last five nonconference games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven bowl games.
  • This will be the first meeting in this Big 12/AAC tilt

Iowa State vs. Memphis Autozone Liberty Bowl Pick

I would normally jump all over a Mid Major with the Tigers’ credentials against a mid-level team from a Power 5 conference, but I have been equally impressed with what Iowa State brings the table in this game. Memphis also has the luxury of playing the Liberty Bowl in its home town, but that extra half-point on the current spread is another factor pushing me towards the Cyclones in this game.

This one should be a barnburner that racks up some serious points to take the total OVER the 66.5-point total, but my ‘best bet’ pick is Iowa State plus the 3.5 points in what could easily be a three-point game either way.

Free Pick: 
Take Iowa State +3.5

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