Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick

Date: 
October 17, 8:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
UGA +5/ALA .5
Total: 
58.5

The biggest game of the 2020 college football season will occur this Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium when the 2nd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the no. 3 Georgia Bulldogs for a showdown to decide SEC supremacy. If the rankings do not dignify this game's importance, consider the fact that Georgia has won the SEC East in the last three seasons, and Alabama has captured the SEC West in four of the previous six seasons. Furthermore, both Georgia and Alabama have established themselves as two of the best teams in college football, and the winner of this Saturday's game will solidify their spots as the best in the SEC.

Despite the fact Alabama seems to be the consensus best team in the SEC, the Crimson Tide are just 4.5 point favorites at home against the Bulldogs. Perhaps part of the reason is the fact the Crimson Tide just gave up 48 points in their victory over Ole Miss. Head Coach Nick Saban actually came out and hinted at the fact that Ole Miss may have known their defensive signals. Whether true or not, it was one of the Crimson Tide's worst performances under Nick Saban. The defense has been a trademark of Saban's championship teams in Tuscaloosa, and it will be interesting to see how the Crimson Tide respond defensively this week against the Bulldogs.

Georgia vs. Alabama breakdown

In my MMA lingo, I would like to say "styles make fights" for this week's Georgia vs. Alabama game. The reason I say that is because everyone should expect a very different game this week than what we saw in Alabama and Ole Miss last week. The Crimson Tide outlasted the Rebels last week in an offensive shootout thanks to big performances from quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. They became the first QB/RB duo for Alabama to pass for 400 yards and have a 200-yard rusher in the same game. While the Rebels inept defense helped pad those numbers, the stylistic approach to this week's game against Georgia will be very different.

The Bulldogs will not engage in the run and gun offensive game with Alabama. Head Coach Kirby Smart had built the Bulldogs in the same manner that Nick Saban constructed in his early years at Alabama when Smart was an assistant coach. The Bulldogs are a power running team that attempts to wear defenses down throughout 60 minutes of play. Furthermore, the Bulldogs rarely have to take any chances on offense because they are backed by an even better defense on the other side of the ball. Despite Alabama's reputation for having great defenses, make no mistakes, Georgia's defense will be the best unit on the field this Saturday. In fact, I would make the claim that Georgia has the best defense in college football as it stands today. As a result, expect Georgia QB Stetson Bennett to play the game-manager role and to see a heavy load from running back Zamir White just as we have seen in recent weeks in high profile match-ups against Auburn and Tennessee.

Bet on the under 56.5

I have been flawless on my predictions around Georgia this year, and I believe the best value this week surrounds the total (56.5). As I stated above, I truly believe the Bulldogs have the best defense in college football, and they have given up just 37 points combined against Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee in recent weeks. Those keeping track that is 37 points in 3 games combined, including two match-ups against teams ranked in the top 15. I believe the reason Georgia's betting line is so close in this game is because their defense is going to keep them in this game, and if they can just get a little help from the offense, they are live for the upset. I have a lot of respect for Alabama's offense, but I have even more respect for the Bulldogs defense, so I can confidently say that the total is listed too high for this match-up.

Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Georgia is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Georgia has hit the "under" in eight of the last nine games.
  • Georgia is 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • Alabama is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Alabama has hit the "over" in seven of the last eight games.
  • Alabama has won the last five meetings against Georgia.

Dawgs vs. Bama Predictions

I would not be surprised to see Georgia get the outright win here though Alabama's offense has the most scoring potential. I just believe the under 58.5 has the most value as both teams will have trouble finding the end zone.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 58.5
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