Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators Spread Pick

Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators Spread Pick

David Schwab
Date: November 28, 7:30 pm
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Florida State -2
Total: 43.5

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The 9-2 Florida State Seminoles head into Gainesville this Saturday to try and derail the 10-1 Florida Gators' chances at a possible playoff berth in this season's annual rivalry showdown. Kickoff from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
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<strong>Seminoles at Gators Game Overview</strong>
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Florida State has been good to bettors down the stretch after covering against the spread in its last four games. The Seminoles are actually a profitable 5-1 ATS over their last six games with that 22-16 loss to Georgia Tech as five-point road favorites on Oct. 24 being the only blemish during this run. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games.
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While their ACC title hopes crashed and burned with losses to the Yellow Jackets and Clemson, the Seminoles are still a very solid team on both sides of the ball. They have shown excellent balance on offense between the pass and the run with an average of 435.9 total yards a game. One of the top playmakers on this side of the ball has been running back Dalvin Cook with 1,475 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Florida State's defense has done a great job at keeping opposing teams out of the end zone with a points-allowed average of 17.0.
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Florida has been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC this season and with a win on Saturday along with a victory in the conference championship it would have to receive some strong consideration for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Gators lone SU loss this season was to LSU on the road, but they have been a bit shaky down the stretch to wager on with a 2-3 record ATS over their last five games. The total has now stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games.
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Treon Harris has done a pretty good job at quarterback filling in for the suspended Will Grier with 1,231 yards passing and eight touchdown throws. He has also picked-up 198 yards on the ground as the team's second-leading rusher. Overall, Florida is averaging just 360 total yards and 27 points a game, but it has gotten a tremendous effort from a defense that is ranked third in the nation in points allowed (14.5).
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<strong>Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators Game Betting Trends</strong>
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The Seminoles are 17-3 SU in their last 20 road games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last six games on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five road games.
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The Gators have a SU five-game winning streak at home and they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played at home.
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Head-to-head in this in-state clash, Florida State has won four of the last five meetings SU and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings.
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Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators Point Spread Pick

In a showdown between two bitter rivals that have been known for explosive offenses over the years, this season's clash is going to come down to which defense plays closest to its ability. I think both units will get the job done on Saturday in a game that stays UNDER the current 43.5-point total line.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 43.5 -DS
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