Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Odds & Pick

December 5, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
FLA -17/TENN +17

The 6th ranked Florida Gators were initially slated to end the regular season this Saturday with their trip to Knoxville to battle the Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. However, the Gators meeting with LSU was rescheduled to December 12th after previously being postponed due to COVID-19. Despite the conclusion to the regular season being pushed back another week, the Gators could seal their postseason destiny on Saturday. With a mere victory over the Vols, Florida would clinch their ticket to the SEC Championship where they will meet no. 1 Alabama with likely College Football Playoffs implications on the line.

The Gators have been playing really good football, specifically behind the tremendous play of QB Kyle Trask who has helped compile five consecutive wins since Florida's lone loss to Texas A&M earlier this year. Florida derailed Georgia in their annual rivalry showdown and has delivered convincing wins over Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky in recent weeks. Meanwhile, RockyTop has been crumbling with five straight losses contributed by horrendous play on the offensive side of the football. As a result, The Vols will be double-digit underdogs for the 3rd time in the last five games, which they have failed to cover, going 0-3 ATS during that stretch.

Betting Analysis: Florida vs. Tennessee

I must admit that I thought this line could be in the 20 point range, and perhaps it still could be by kick-off. The reasoning behind that expectation is simple math. The Gators are averaging 44 points per game, and the Volunteers have been held to 17 points or less in the last four games. Obviously, we cannot make a betting recommendation on that factor alone, but the angles still favor Florida when we dive into the intrinsic details. QB Kyle Trask recently took over the frontrunner position in the 2020 Heisman Trophy race. Trask has completed 71% passing for 2,810 yards with 34 touchdowns and just three picks in just eight games.

Though impressive, the numbers still do not tell the entire story. With the exception of Kyle Pitts, who is an extremely talented skill player at the TE position, the Gators do not have many elite offensive threats that you would expect from an offense that is averaging 44 points per game, which is a direct complement to Trask's tremendous play this season. On Saturday, Trask will get to take aim at a Tennessee defense that is ranked 79th in the FBS and allows 250 yards per game through the air. The amazing fact about that statistic is that Tennessee has only played one offense with a top 25 passing offense, which was Alabama. In that game, the Vols were shredded for nearly 400 yards passing and gave up the most points of the season. Strictly from a match-up standpoint, this is another smash opportunity for Trask and this highly efficient Florida offense.

Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

  • The Vols are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Vols are 0-5 SU in their last five games.
  • The Vols have hit the "under" in five of the last six games.
  • The Gators have hit the "over" in seven of the last ten games.
  • The Gators are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Tennessee.
  • The Gators are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games against Tennessee.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Prediction Week 14

I alluded to the Volunteers offensive woes above and the fact they have been held to 17 points or less in 4 straight games against mediocre opponents. While Florida's defense has not been overly impressive, the match-up against Tennessee is not fearful either. In my opinion, QB Jarrett Guarantano is the most overrated quarterback in SEC history. Despite the enormous expectations before the season began, the Vols senior QB has thrown just six passing touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions. The Volunteers have been ineffective in the passing game and rely on a one-dimensional running attack that is not exactly overly threatening either. The Gators defense has been criticized in recent weeks for underperforming, but this is the stylistic match-up that can turn things back in the right direction. Even if you don't trust Florida's defense, just trust the Vols' inability to move the football because that will be the key to this cover.

Free Pick: 
Take the Gators -17