Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Pick

Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Pick

David Schwab
Date: December 5, 4:00 pm
Location: Georgia Dome

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Alabama -17
Total: 40.5

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The Georgia Dome in Atlanta will be the site of this season's SEC Championship Game between the 10-2 Florida Gators and the 11-1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Saturday's kickoff is slated for 4 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
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<strong>Sec Championship Game Overview</strong>
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Florida's run towards a possible berth in this season's College Football Playoff probably came to an end with Saturday's 27-2 loss to Florida State as a 2.5-point home underdog even if it somehow finds a way to win this game. The 10-2 Gators are now just 2-4 against the spread over their last six games and after the total stayed well UNDER the 44-point closing line against the Seminoles, it has stayed UNDER in their last five outings.
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The total lack of offense in this past Saturday's loss has to be a major concern heading into this SEC title game. The Gators managed to gain a total of 262 yards against Florida State as opposed to a season average of 214.9 yards through the air and 137 yards a game on the ground. Florida is going to have to get a much better effort from quarterback Treon Harris and running back Kelvin Taylor as two of the top players on this side of the ball. The main thing in the Gators' favor for this Saturday's game is a shutdown defense that is ranked fifth in the nation in points allowed (15.5).
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The Crimson Tide served notice that they are ready for another run as a national title with a four-game winning streak ATS in which they outscored their opponents by a combined 105 points. In their annual rivalry against Auburn this past Saturday, they came away with a 29-13 win as 15-point road favorites. The total stayed UNDER the 47-point closing line and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games.
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Alabama continues to get it done the way it always has under head coach Nick Saban by running the ball on offense and shutting teams down on defense. Heisman hopeful Derrick Henry helped his chances to win this year's award as the top college football player with 271 yards rushing on 46 carries in the win against Auburn. On the year, he has rushed for 1,797 yards and 22 touchdowns while carrying the ball 295 times. The Tides' defense did its part in last Saturday's win and this unit comes into this championship showdown ranked third in the nation in points allowed (14.3).
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<strong>Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Game Betting Trends</strong>
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The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and they have also covered in their last four games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight neutral-site games.
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The Crimson Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at a neutral site and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has gone OVER in 15 of their last 21 neutral-site games.
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The favorite in this conference clash is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six games. Alabama has won eight of the last nine meetings ATS.
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Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction

Alabama is probably playing its best ball of the season, while the Gators' offense was completely exposed in that loss to Florida State. Laying 17 points in any conference title game comes with some risk, but I think the Tide will try and make a strong statement that they belong in this season's College Football Playoff with a convincing victory this Saturday that covers the large spread.

Free Pick: Free Pick: Take Alabama -17 -DS
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