East Carolina Pirates at Central Florida Knights Spread Pick

East Carolina Pirates at Central Florida Knights Spread Pick

David Schwab
Date: November 15, 7:30 pm
Location: Bright House Networks Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: East Carolina -15
Total: 54.5

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Two of the bottom feeders in the AAC East Division will try and hammer-out a much needed win this Thursday night when the East Carolina Pirates square-off against the Central Florida Knights. All the action from Bright House Networks Stadium is scheduled to get underway at 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
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<strong>East Carolina at Central Florida Game Overview</strong>
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The Pirates have lost their last three games straight-up and they have failed to cover against the spread in their last four outings after closing as favorites in all four contests. This slide has dropped them to 4-6 on the year both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games behind an offense that has only averaged 18.5 points during this same stretch. This compares to a season scoring average of 26 points a game.
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Despite East Carolina's recent struggles on the scoreboard, it still has one of the more potent passing attacks in the nation with an average of 258.5 yards a game. Blake Kemp has taken most of the snaps and he has thrown for 1,878 yards and 11 touchdowns while completing a solid 69.8 percent of his 275 attempts. The Pirates decided to go with James Summers their last time out against South Florida and he completed 14-of-22 attempts for 158 yards in a 22-17 loss as five-point home favorites. It remains to be seen which quarterback will get the call against the Knights.
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Central Florida is in the midst of one of its worst seasons in recent memory. It has dropped all 10 of its games this season SU and it comes into this matchup with a 2-8 record ATS. The Knights were able to cover as 17-point road underdogs two weeks ago in a 45-30 loss to Tulsa. They have now closed as double-digit underdogs in their last four games. The total went OVER the closing 60.5-point line their last time out and it has now gone OVER in four of their last five outings.
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This could be one of the worst offenses in the nation with an average of 199.9 passing yards complementing a rushing attack that is averaging just 78.7 yards a game. The result is a unit that is ranked 127th in the country in scoring with 15 points a game. The fact that the Knights were able to roll-up 30 points their last time out has to be a moral victory in lieu of any actual ones. Defensively, UCF is allowing an average of 36.4 points a game, which is ranked 113th of all Division IA teams.
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<strong>East Carolina at Central Florida Game Betting Trends</strong>
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The Pirates have failed to cover ATS in seven if their last 10 road games and they have just one SU win in their last six games on the road. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five road games.
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The Knights are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall including a 0-5 mark ATS in their last five home games. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games played at home.
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Central Florida has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games against East Carolina and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.
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East Carolina at Central Florida Point Spread Pick

This is a game that will probably be won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes. East Carolina is clearly the better half of this matchup and it should win this game SU, but I do not trust the Pirates to cover a 15-point spread on the road.

Free Pick: Take the Knights getting 15 Points - DS
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