Connecticut Huskies at Houston Cougars Point Spread Pick

Connecticut Huskies at Houston Cougars Point Spread Pick

David Schwab
Date: September 29, 8:00 pm
Location: TDECU Stadium
TV: Local

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Houston -28
Total: 51.5

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TDECU Stadium is the place to be this Thursday night for an AAC matchup between the Connecticut Huskies and the undefeated Houston Cougars. Game time for this Week 5 conference tilt has been set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
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Connecticut at Houston Game Overview<br />
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The Huskies are off to an even 2-2 straight-up start with a 1-3 record against the spread after failing to cover as three-point favorites in last Saturday’s 31-24 loss to Syracuse. The total stayed UNDER the 57.5-point closing line in that game after going OVER in two of their first three games. Connecticut is just 2-11 SU in its last 13 road games and they have failed to cover in four of their last five games on the road.
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If UConn is going to have any chance of keeping pace with Houston on Thursday night it is going to need a huge effort from quarterback Bryant Shirreffs and running back Arkeel Newsome. Shirreffs has completed a solid 66.9 percent of his 118 passing attempts for 819 yards and two touchdowns, but he has also been picked off twice He comes into this game as the team’s second leading rusher with 187 yards and a score on 74 carries. Newsome is averaging 4.1 yards a carry and he has gained 211 yards on the ground with two rushing touchdowns.
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The Cougars got their season off to a strong start with an impressive 33-23 upset against Oklahoma as 13-point underdogs and they have been on a roll ever since with a perfect 4-0 straight-up record that also includes a solid 40-16 victory over AAC rival Cincinnati two weeks ago as eight-point road favorites in their conference opener. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their first four games while going 3-1 against the spread.
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Much has been made about Houston’s balanced attack on offense that is producing an average of 43.3 points a game, but the main reason this is one of the top teams in the nation this season could be a defense that is currently ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed (10.5). Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. has thrown for 936 yards and five touchdowns while completing 65.7 percent of his 102 passing attempts. Duke Catalon has anchored the ground game with 225 yards rushing on 48 carries. The Cougars are deep in this department with five different players rushing for at least 100 yards this season.
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Connecticut at Houston Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Huskies have covered ATS in seven of their last nine Thursday games, but they fall to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in the AAC. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six conference games.
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The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they have covered in five of their last six games played in September. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven home games.
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Connecticut beat Houston 20-17 as a 7.5-point home underdog last season in the only previous meeting between the two. The total stayed UNDER 50 in that game.
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Connecticut at Houston Prediction

I am a bit concerned about such a deep spread for a conference game, but there are two big things in Houston’s favor to get another win both SU and ATS this Thursday night. The first is the large disparity in the overall talent level in both of these teams and the other is the revenge factor given last season’s stunning road loss to the Huskies.

Houston is not only eyeing an AAC title this season, but a possible spot in the College Football Playoff so do not expect any kind of letdown this Thursday night.

Free Pick: Take Houston -28
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