Alamo Bowl Picks: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Date: 
December 29, 7:15 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Okla -7
Total: 
60

Oregon and Oklahoma both harbored hopes of making the College Football Playoff this season, but instead, they'll meet in the Alamo Bowl Wednesday night in San Antonio. Both teams had a chance to make the CFP as they hit the quarter pole this season but both faltered down the stretch. Then, both lost their head coaches.

The Sooners are favored by a touchdown for this Alamo Bowl. How are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?

Alamo Bowl Betting Odds

The college football bowl season betting lines opened Oklahoma as a four-point favorite for this Alamo Bowl, with an over/under of right around 62.5. Early betting action then goosed the Sooners to -7 and dropped that total to 60.

According to Sagarin's ratings at USAToday.com, Oklahoma should only be favored by 4.5 points for this match-up.

Alamo Bowl College Football Betting Preview

Oregon played 10-3 this season, won the PAC-12 North by going 7-2 in conference play but got blown out by Utah in the PAC-12 championship game. The Ducks started 4-0, with wins over Fresno State and a shocker at Ohio State then got upset at Stanford in overtime. Oregon then won five in a row to clinch the North title and still had a shot at a CFP berth. But the Ducks then lost badly at Utah to fall from contention before beating rival Oregon State in the regular-season finale 38-29. Oregon then lost the PAC-12 title tilt to the Utes 38-10.

Nonetheless, the Ducks are back in a bowl for the fifth straight season.

Oregon played 10-1 against everyone except Utah this season.

The Ducks got out-gained in that PAC-12 championship game 361-221 and out-rushed 191-74. But Oregon also out-gained and out-rushed seven of its last nine opponents.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, played 10-3 this season and 7-2 in Big 12 play but fell short of its lofty expectations and even missed the conference championship game for the first time in five seasons. The Sooners started 9-0 but weren't exactly beating people up. They beat Tulane (which finished 2-10) by five points, Nebraska by seven points, West Virginia by three, Kansas State by six, and Texas (in a wild comeback) by seven. They also only played 4-5 ATS along the way, favored by way too much too often. And they made a change at quarterback along the way. Oklahoma then lost at eventual Big 12 champion Baylor, beat Iowa State by a touchdown but with a spot in the Big 12 championship game on the line, lost the season finale at rival Oklahoma State 37-31.

So while the Sooners are back in a bowl for the 23rd straight season, it isn't the one they'd hoped for.

Oklahoma out-gained the Cowboys in that Bedlam bout 441-354, out-rushed OSU 189-140 and won the time of possession 36:24. But the Sooners blew a 33-24 fourth-quarter lead by giving up the last 13 points of the game.

Oklahoma actually got out-gained by five of its last eight opponents, including by TCU and Kansas, who combined to go 7-17 this season.

These two teams last met back in 2006, a 34-33 Oregon home victory.

College Football Bowl Season Betting Trends

Oregon played 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS against teams that made bowls this season.

Oklahoma played 4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS against teams that made bowls this season.

Over the last seven-plus seasons, the Big 12 is 15-9 SU, 15-8-1 ATS against the PAC-12.

So far, this bowl season favorites are 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS.

Totals Report

Under are 7-6 in Ducks games this season, which are averaging 57 total points.

Overs are 7-5 in Sooners games this season, which are averaging 64 points.

So far this bowl season, the overs are 12-8.

Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction 12/29/21

Oklahoma is averaging 442 yards per game and 38 points per game; Oregon is averaging 418 and 31. And both teams are missing several starters on defense due to injuries or sit-outs. We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we get the feeling there will be a lot of points scored. So we're betting the over 60 for our free Alamo Bowl pick.  

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 60