Alamo Bowl Picks: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Alamo Bowl Picks: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Darin Zank
Date: December 29, 7:15 pm
Location: The Alamodome
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Okla -7
Total: 60

<p>Oregon and Oklahoma both harbored hopes of making the College Football Playoff this season, but instead, they'll meet in the Alamo Bowl Wednesday night in San Antonio. Both teams had a chance to make the CFP as they hit the quarter pole this season but both faltered down the stretch. Then, both lost their head coaches.</p>
<p>The Sooners are favored by a touchdown for this Alamo Bowl. How are we playing this game with our free college football betting pick?
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<h2>Alamo Bowl Betting Odds </h2>
<p>The college football bowl season betting lines opened Oklahoma as a four-point favorite for this Alamo Bowl, with an over/under of right around 62.5. Early betting action then goosed the Sooners to -7 and dropped that total to 60. </p>
<p>According to Sagarin's ratings at USAToday.com, Oklahoma should only be favored by 4.5 points for this match-up.
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<h2>Alamo Bowl College Football Betting Preview</h2>
<p>Oregon played 10-3 this season, won the PAC-12 North by going 7-2 in conference play but got blown out by Utah in the PAC-12 championship game. The Ducks started 4-0, with wins over Fresno State and a shocker at Ohio State then got upset at Stanford in overtime. Oregon then won five in a row to clinch the North title and still had a shot at a CFP berth. But the Ducks then lost badly at Utah to fall from contention before beating rival Oregon State in the regular-season finale 38-29. Oregon then lost the PAC-12 title tilt to the Utes 38-10.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the Ducks are back in a bowl for the fifth straight season.</p>
<p>Oregon played 10-1 against everyone except Utah this season.</p>
<p>The Ducks got out-gained in that PAC-12 championship game 361-221 and out-rushed 191-74. But Oregon also out-gained and out-rushed seven of its last nine opponents.</p>
<p>Oklahoma, meanwhile, played 10-3 this season and 7-2 in Big 12 play but fell short of its lofty expectations and even missed the conference championship game for the first time in five seasons. The Sooners started 9-0 but weren't exactly beating people up. They beat Tulane (which finished 2-10) by five points, Nebraska by seven points, West Virginia by three, Kansas State by six, and Texas (in a wild comeback) by seven. They also only played 4-5 ATS along the way, favored by way too much too often. And they made a change at quarterback along the way. Oklahoma then lost at eventual Big 12 champion Baylor, beat Iowa State by a touchdown but with a spot in the Big 12 championship game on the line, lost the season finale at rival Oklahoma State 37-31.</p>
<p>So while the Sooners are back in a bowl for the 23rd straight season, it isn't the one they'd hoped for.</p>
<p>Oklahoma out-gained the Cowboys in that Bedlam bout 441-354, out-rushed OSU 189-140 and won the time of possession 36:24. But the Sooners blew a 33-24 fourth-quarter lead by giving up the last 13 points of the game.</p>
<p>Oklahoma actually got out-gained by five of its last eight opponents, including by TCU and Kansas, who combined to go 7-17 this season.</p>
<p>These two teams last met back in 2006, a 34-33 Oregon home victory.</p>
<h2>College Football Bowl Season Betting Trends</h2>
<p>Oregon played 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS against teams that made bowls this season.</p>
<p>Oklahoma played 4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS against teams that made bowls this season.</p>
<p>Over the last seven-plus seasons, the Big 12 is 15-9 SU, 15-8-1 ATS against the PAC-12.</p>
<p>So far, this bowl season favorites are 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS.</p>
<h2>Totals Report</h2>
<p>Under are 7-6 in Ducks games this season, which are averaging 57 total points.</p>
<p>Overs are 7-5 in Sooners games this season, which are averaging 64 points.</p>
<p>So far this bowl season, the overs are 12-8.</p>

Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction 12/29/21

Oklahoma is averaging 442 yards per game and 38 points per game; Oregon is averaging 418 and 31. And both teams are missing several starters on defense due to injuries or sit-outs. We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we get the feeling there will be a lot of points scored. So we're betting the over 60 for our free Alamo Bowl pick.  

Free Pick: Take the OVER 60
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