Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds - Point Spread Pick

Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds - Point Spread Pick

Cliff Knox
Date: April 5, 9:00 pm
Location: NRG Stadium
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Villanova -2
Total: 144.5

<p>In the National Men's Basketball title game, it's the
</p>
<p>Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels in Houston, Texas on 4/4/2016. The line for this NCAA title game opened with the Tar heels favored by two points, but most sportsbooks are currently hanging a UNC -2.5 on the board. The total line opened at 151 but was quickly bet down and is now offered at 149.5 at the sharper outs.
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<p>Villanova had the most dominate win in the tournament absolutely crushing Oklahoma 95-51 as a small -2.5 point spread favorite. The victory extended their winning streak straight up and against the spread to five games. The 146 points scored in the game slid over the 144.5 total line for the Wildcats' third OVER in their last four matches and the seventh time in their last ten. Overall Villanova's betting numbers are 20-17-1 against both the spread and versus the O/U line.
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<p>North Carolina looked strong against Syracuse in 83-66 victory as a large 10-point favorite. The win was their tenth straight and they have been padding their backers' bankrolls covering the point spread cover for the fourth consecutive game and eighth time in their last nine. The 149 points put on the board by the two clubs climbed past the 142.5 total line for UNS's third consecutive OVER. On the season the Tar heels are 20-18-1 versus the betting line and 21-18-0 versus the total.
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<p>These two teams last met in the 2013 NCAA Tournament when North Carolina beat Villanova 78-71 with the seven-point winning margin sufficient enough to get the cover by UNC. The Over/Under line closed at 143 on this game sending OVER bettors to the windows to cash their tickets.
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<p>Villanova ranks 57th in the nation averaging 78 PPG and rank 11th giving up an average of 60.6 PPG. In their blowout win over Oklahoma in the Final Four the Wildcats were dominant with a FG% of 71.4% and they held the Sooners to a FG% of 31.7%.
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<p>North Carolina ranks 10th in the nation in scoring (83 PPG) and 58th in opponents' points allowed (71.8 PPG). The Tar Heels have won all five of their Big Dance games by double figures. In their win over Syracuse in the Final Four North Carolina was solid on both ends of the floor with a FG% of 53.8% and holding the Orange to a FG% of 40.9%.
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<div class="heading">Sagarin Ranking</div>
<p>Villanova: 94.13<br><br />
North Carolina: 93.45
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<div class="heading">Betting Trends to Consider</div>
<ul>
<li>NOVA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.</li>
<li>NOVA is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.</li>
<li>NOVA has an Over record of 11-3 in their last 14 games.</li>
<li>UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.</li>
<li>UNC is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.</li>
<li>UNC has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.</li>
</ul>
<p>On the season Villanova has an O/U record of 20-17-1 and North Carolina has an O/U record of 21-18. </p>
<p>This season in games held at a neutral site Villanova is 9-2 and North Carolina is 12-0. </p>

Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction

Both of these teams are shooting the lights out and research would probably support a statement that the title game has never matched two finalists that have a FG% of over 51% in tournament play. No one is hotter than Villanova who shot an insane 71.4% against Oklahoma and the speed and athleticism of UNC can give the scorekeeper a workout. However, the Wildcats know that the key for them will be slowing this game down and that's something that the excel at one of the main factors why they ranked No. 11 in the nation this season in scoring defense. Villanova's defense has been sharp throughout the tournament holding all five opponents to under 70 points and three of the five to fewer than 60. Likewise, North Carolina has held three of their opponents to 67 or fewer and allowed only the fast playing Hoosiers to exceed 74 points. Note that the title game has gone UNDER in five of the last six games and that's exactly where I think it will land tonight.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 149.5
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