TCU comes into this game sizzling hot destroying Oklahoma by 19 in the Big 12 tourney opening round by 19 and a huge upset over Kansas in their latest. They’ve beaten the Cyclones before and are now a perfect 4-0 on neutral courts. Here’s a key stat - The Horned Frogs are allowing opponents just 28.8 shooting from 3-point land and a repeat of anything near that number could lead TCU to victory. But we don’t need them to win to get the money. The point spread for this game gives us a little wiggle room making this a real solid value play.

I’m not giving much weight to the Spartans win over the Nittany Lions. MSU had a huge scheduling advantage and it showed. Penn State was playing on back to back days and were coming off of an overtime match to secure their opening road win. Before that win the Spartans has won two of their previous five contests losing all three away from home. Minnesota did drop both contests this season to Michigan State, but come into this game with a hot hand winning eight straight before losing to Wisconsin in a meaningless game to Wisconsin to close out the regular season schedule.

Sure the Bluejays have a solid neutral court record going 3-0 and 2-1 versus the betting line, but that was early in the season when they still had G Maurice Watson Jr.. Since he was sidelined Creighton went an unimpressive by anyone’s standards 5-7 straight up. Providence comes into this game on a six game game winning streak that includes a victory over Creighton.

These two meet in early February in a tough defensive battle won by the visiting Wildcats 56-54 falling well short of the 130.5 closing total line. The first meeting of the season back on January 14th was a completely different story with the two squads putting up 145 points. I think we’ll see a repeat of that in this match. KSU’s defense has allowed an average of 62.2 points per game overall this season, but that rises to 73.4 PPG in Big 12 games. Baylor’s overall versus conference number doesn’t have as substantial a rise, but they do allow 64.3 in Big 12 games compared to 62.8 seasonal average. My projection for this game is in the 135 range making this a good value at the current 130. *Baylor’s top guard Manu Lecomte is iffy for this game, so keep an eye on the inactives before making this play.

The books may have finally evaluated Kent State accurately but given the fact Buffalo appears to come in with less points to spot. However, the consensus has taken Buffalo at what appears to be a great price. The Kent State win to the public eye may seem like a fluke and thus prompted the action. However, we must remind any Bulls enthusiast that Kent State was capable of defeating the top seed in Akron on their own court to start off their gallop toward the MAC Quarterfinals. There are shake ups every year in the conference tournaments and teams that unexpectedly punch their ticket to March Madness. In many instances we see top seeds get upset by lower seeds in the most uncanny of ways. For example, we saw #9 Youngstown State defeat #1 Oakland in the Horizon League Tournament and that was most incredulous to many. Contrarily, Kent State is a prime candidate to orchestrate such an event. The Golden Flashes are one of the best in America in rebounding, which means they can cultivate more second chance opportunities and that can be a huge issue for Buffalo. Kent State will head in to this affair with extra confidence knowing they can beat Buffalo on its own court. Now they get the Bulls on a neutral site. Kent State certainly has some mojo working and it is safe to conclude another upset could be in the works.

Vanderbilt comes into this game on a big run, winners of five of their last six straight up getting the cover in all six. Their lone loss that came on the road versus Kentucky by six where they were within 2 with 22 seconds on the clock. Texas A&M doesn’t have an quality win since 2016, so there is no reason to think that they come on top here. It’s a square play but the right play, so lay the points here.

Indiana has been playing better than it appears at first glance. They’re 2-3 in their last five games, but keep in mind four of the five were on the road and one loss was by a single point and another was in overtime. Iowa comes into this game on a four game run but didn’t really impress. Yes they beat tonight’s opponent but they were the host and needed overtime to get the win. The other wins were against slumping Wisconsin and Maryland and a a young erratic Penn State team. The Hoosiers shoot better and are better on the offensive glass.

The Cardinals beat the Blue Devils handedly in the last meeting at home and while this game is on a neutral court I don’t think the outcome straight up or against the spread will be any different. Duke looked like they had turned the corner back in late January winning seven straight, but the majority of the quality wins came when Grayson Allen was sizzling hot. He hasn’t been on top of his game since the middle of February averaging 6 points and under one assist per game in his last four.

I don’t love this game, but I can’t see any reason to take Mizz. They’ve dropped six straight with all but two by more than today’s lone. Missouri plays poorly away from home going 0-9 in true road games and 1-3 in neutral court games. Lay the points.

Both teams are atrocious on the road and at neutral sites, and between the two clubs they have 13 losses in the their last 15 games. Texas has seven of those losses mired in a current 7-game losing streak, but they didn’t put up much of a fight in most of the games losing five of the seven by more than today’s listed spread. Texas Tech is just 2-6 in their last eight games, but they did lose two by a point TCU and KU and another two in overtime to WVU and ISU.

This is an extremely tough game to take a side on, but the total does offer some value. In the last meeting they combined for 166 points, but I don’t think that they come anywhere near that number tonight. The Hoyas have scored 70 or fewer points in four of the last five and the one that they surpassed that number was against St. John’s who were at home for the match. On the road the Red Storm doesn’t always play the best defense, but on a neutral site they improve to 75.8 points per game and their offense has really struggled scoring 65.5 PPG on 35.7% shooting. They did score just 55 against Georgetown on the road and I think a number in the 60’s by St. John’s gets us the money.

Rutgers has lost six of their last seven games included in that was a six-point road loss to tonight’s opponent. The one thing though that Rutgers has done in recent matchups is pushed the opposition to the limit for the most part with a four point road loss to Northwestern followed by an identical losing margin to Michigan. They did suffer a blowout loss to Maryland before a close win over Illinois. Ohio State has a couple of wins in their last six games beating a mediocre Penn State by 1 and a fast fading Wisconsin by 10. This is way too many points to back the Buckeyes on a neutral court who only beat the Scarlet Knights by six on their home court!

It’s not too often when you see favoritism laid on a team that has lost three straight and five of their last seven. They’re 1-8 in PAC-12 away games and 1-10 on the road overall including in that is a six point loss to today’s opponent.. This game however is at a neutral site where the Cardinal are 3-1 and while they did have a couple of decent wins they were all played back in November and are 8-15 since that game. The Sun Devils are just 4-6 in their ten contests, but they did play four games against the top clubs. As mentioned one of the victories came against Stanford and they did get the money the majority of the times they played teams in this competition level.

Idaho State has won a measly five games this season and are on a seven game losing streak. Sacramento State has won five of their last eight covering seven of those matches, so you'd have to think that they'd be easy pick for the straight up win. Can they cover though? The Bengals have lost six of their last seven games by six or more points and five of their last six losses away from home by eight or more points. This game is on a neutral court and the Hornets are 0-2 in that metric, but I those games were back in 2016 and their current form suggests that they offer the best value in this game.

Mount St. Mary’s has been the talk of the Northeast Conference all season long. For the most part, the Mountaineers have ruled the league with an iron fist and many speak of the rugged out-of-conference schedule that the Mountain Men played. However, despite the resume builder of Mount Saint Mary’s out-of-conference schedule, the Mount went 2-11 out of the NEC. Their wins? Against an atypically weak George Mason by two points and Coppin State who was a bottom-feeder of the MEAC. With this being said, do not be fooled by the rhetoric be that The Mount had their doors blown off against all the quality opponents they squared off outside of the NEC. Nevertheless, Mount St. Mary’s has been the popular pick for many analysts and pundits regarding this conference all season long and be that they made it to the NEC Championship as expected, takers can expect to pay an enhanced price to take action on the Mountaineers. When you couple this notion with the fact the game is on Mount St. Mary’s court and the price is certain to be inflated. The Red Flash have been a cash cow when we have seen them offered with a price and they have clearly been undervalued all season long. Nothing typifies this more than what occurred at Wagner in the NEC Semifinals when the Red Flash pulled the upset to advance. St. Francis is getting hot at the right time, Mount St. Mary’s should proceed with caution.

The Panthers have had some tough competition in recent games playing a handful of the better teams in the ACC, but the worrisome stat here is that they have lost four straight. Georgia Tech hasn't been racking up the W's with two wins in their last six games, but one of those wins was against Pitt back on the last day of February. That victory would lead many to jump on the Yellow Jackets here, but that's not where my money is going to land. GT hasn't played on neutral court this season, but as a visitor they are a dismal 2-10 and have lost seven straight.

Each team won and covered at home, but this game is on a neutral court. Portland State is 4-12 as a visitor, but are on a 0-8 run in that role. Northern Arizona is an even worse 2-12 but they have played five game on a neutral court going 2-3 over those matches. I'll take the points in a game that I have at -2.

Wake Forest is on a roll with three straight wins including quality wins over Louisville and Virginia Tech. They do face at outmatched opponent, but I just can't lay double digits. That said, I do like the total line. Boston College has scored an average of 65.8 points in their four neutral site games and think that's in the range that they'll their scoring will land today. Wake has averaged 82.1 points overall and while they have tallied 86 points per game in their three neutral site games that total was inflated by the 103 that they hung on Texas-El Paso.

Some may think that BYU can get it done here being the only team to knock off the Zags this season, but in that match it was the poor play of Gonazaga not the play of BYU that was the reason for the upset. The Zags shot a pathetic 18.8% from three point land and just 55.2% from the charity stripe. The Gaels have easily put away the Cougars in their two meetings this season winning by 13 both on the road and at home and are my play for this game tonight.

The home side won and covered both games played this season between these two clubs and I don't think that will change this time around. Toledo went 6-3 in home MAC games this season covering the spread in all six wins with the lowest winning margin being by 12 against Bowling Green.