College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Very simply, Northern Kentucky is a superior team compared to their opponents. They shoot better (NKU hits 48.3% success rate on their field goal attempts – 29th in NCAA compared to Oakland who hits a 69th ranked 46.9%), they are far superior in scoring defense as Oakland gives up a 309th ranked 77.6 points per game compared to NKU’s 75th ranked 67.5 points per contest. As a result of a heavy public lean on the dog, we get the Norse at a reduced price. Take advantage.
This is expected to be a great basketball game. The Cavaliers are a very small favorite at home, but in the end, we expect the Duke Blue Devils to come away with the road upset win. This would be a massive win for Coach K and his young squad.
The Terriers areas are in a prime spot to stub their toe here. However, much of the consensus will dissent as the Buc's most recent loss at home against UNC Greensboro combined with Wofford's flawless Southern Conference record has something to do with why they are leaning on the Terriers here with the point. Nevertheless, this is an ETSU basketball team that prides itself on playing at another level on its own floor, and nothing can typify that more by ending Wofford's present win streak both at-large and against them.
Both teams' average's around 70 ppg, but the Badgers shoot about 3% better from the field. The advantage for Wisconsin could come down to their team defense. The Badgers only allow 61.5 ppg, compared to Minnesota who gives up 70.3 ppg. The Gophers last game ended in a loss to Purdue, and before that, they were teetering back and forth in wins and losses. They did go on a nice six-game winning streak during December and took down no. 19 Iowa a few games ago so this is definitely a team that can pull off a win, especially at home. Despite that, look for the red hot shooting of Wisconsin to lead them over the top.
Both of these team's average around 70 ppg, but Kansas allows just as many points per game (70.3), as they score (76.7). Texas Tech is allowing only 56.8 ppg, and they need that defense to be in full force against this Kansas offense. Each team shoots 47% from the field, and this game could come down to which side can slow down the opposing star better. Lawson and Culver lead each of their teams in both scoring and rebounding, but Lawson as a height advantage down at the forward position. This is going to be a tough game on the road for the Red Raiders, and we just can't see Bill Self's team losing three straight games.
North Dakota State will transform what an eight-game road losing streak into a two-game road winning streak at the expense of the Leathernecks was. The Bison will play a complete game and allow costly WIU turnovers combined with NDSU’s edge in bench play to win this contest by potentially another double-digit margin.
In this battle of the birds, we are putting our trust in the one that has the ability to rise from its own ashes. Metaphorically speaking Elon will do just that and end Delaware's three-game winning streak with style on its own floor. The Blue Hen's luck runs out, and the Phoenix pull the upset.
LSU is averaging 83 ppg compared to Texas A&M's 72 ppg. Both teams are pretty equal in rebounds and assists, but if the Aggies can control the boards and get hot from the field, they could pull off an upset. We'll see if Mitchell can build off his strong performance against Kansas State and wield his team to victory.
I don’t think that anyone of sound mind would forecast an upset in this game, but the nearly two touchdowns spread on this game is not something I feel comfortable laying. In my opinion, the total on this game is where the value lies. The Irish rank 102nd in home scoring defense and are facing the 5th best road scoring offense of the Blue Devils. ND doesn't pressure well averaging a puny 5.35 steals a game making a score in the n90's for Duke a strong possibility. The injury to Forward Juwan Durham and his blocking ability adds more to the argument. Syracuse skews the number, but Duke has allowed 70.4 points per game in ACC games, and we may need only a mid 60's score by the Irish to surpass the line.
The Knights are just 2-2 as a true road team this season, but one of their losses was against a decent Mizz team losing by two in overtime in their first real road game of the season. The other defeat came against Wichita State who was hitting everything that match and were not going to be stopped. UCF has had Memphis number over the last two seasons and has done a good job containing Memphis top scoring threat Jeremiah Martin holding him to 17 at home and 11 on the road last season. This game is too close to call versus the spread as either team could get the victory and the money, but the total looks beatable. In 2018 these teams combined for 132 and 121 points and while I do forecast I higher number this time around we have 16 points to play with.
The lack of scoring outside of Langford and Morgan for Indiana really shows. We saw it in the last game between these two teams. The duo combined for 42 of the teams 63 points. The Hoosiers can quickly get back on track, and turn their season around if some of their other guys start contributing more. As far as next Friday's game goes, we're taking the Wolverines on the road. This should be a great game.
Iowa has shown their ability to upset a ranked opponent following a 72-62 upset over no. 16 Ohio State a week ago. That win propelled the Hawkeyes into the top 25 of the AP poll rankings, pushing them up three spots from no. 26 to no. 23. The Spartans took care of Iowa back in early December, winning 90-68. Ward led the way for Michigan State with 26 points and 9 rebounds. Goins also posted an impressive stat line of 19 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists. The scary thing about that win is the Spartans still won by 22 points despite their leading scorer Cassius Winston only contributing 8 points. Winston did a lot of distributing in the game though with a team-high 12 assists.
It may sound odd, but I don’t think that the Tar Heels have enough offense to get past the Hokies tonight. Virginia Tech rarely gives up more than 70 points doing so on just three occasions and while that happened in their last two the game against Wake Forest (87-71) they ran into foul trouble and played a lot of back-ups in the second half. North Carolina shot over 50% from the field in their latest which was the first game in their last eight that they have eclipsed that mark, so it's not a given that they'll repeat. The Hokies have edges in shooting, turnover margin and if they can win the battle on the boards should win this outright.
Rivalry games produce the unexpected and can often alter the course of a season for a team that finds itself in a slump. Tennessee State can change its stars here and will enter into this affair with heightened motivation as they are sick and tired of Tennessee Tech slipping away. We'll trade away the points here and bank on the Tigers pulling off the upset.
The winner of this game will be the team that is able to get the pace of play in their favor. Iowa State wants to run and score a ton of points, and Texas Tech wants to lock in on defense. The Red Raiders look like the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, and they will be locked in at home.
There is also the rivalry element of this game and the fact that both teams have played just one Big West contest. For a team like UC Riverside who had struggled mightily in their non-conference play, a win here injects momentum into their program and puts them right in the thick of the Big West race. We have to like their motivation levels here against a conference rivalry that they are hungry to beat.
Winning on the road is always tough in college basketball, and this will be the biggest challenge for a young Duke squad. Florida State has a veteran squad that won’t be afraid of the Blue Devils freshmen phenoms. The problem for the Seminoles is that they struggle to score, and that won’t work against Duke.
East Tennessee won’t be caught off guard here by The Citadel’s approach toward the game. ETSU knows full well what can happen if they the Bulldogs play this contest on their terms and many can be assured that the Bucs will be prepared accordingly. Expect ETSU to take The Citadel out of their element and make this a defensive-oriented game that will ultimately wear out the Bulldogs and lead to a final tally below the projected total.
It would be no surprise if TCU upset Kansas at home on Wednesday. The team stats for both teams match up pretty evenly, as both teams hover around the 80 PPG mark. With TCU entering this game winners of 9 straight games, and the loss of Azubuike to Kansas it'll be tough for Lawson and company. IF TCU can control the boards and contain Lawson in this game they'll have a chance to move up in the rankings. In the end, the Horned Frogs go on the road and win this game. Bet the underdog TCU.