Houston at Dallas NBA Odds Analysis - Free Pick - Jan 24 - 2018

Houston at Dallas NBA Odds Analysis - Free Pick - Jan 24 - 2018

David Schwab
Date: January 24, 8:00 pm
Location: American Airlines Center
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Houston -5.5
Total: 216.5

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The Houston Rockets are back to their winning ways and this Wednesday night they pay a visit to American Airlines Center for a Southwest Division tilt against the Dallas Mavericks. Game time on ESPN is slated for 8 p.m.
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Houston at Dallas Game Overview<br />
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The Rockets have gone 6-1 straight-up in their last seven games with a 5-2 run against the spread after beating Miami 99-90 on Monday as 10.5-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER 213 points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in their last five games. Houston is 3.5 games behind Golden State for the lead in the Western Conference at 33-12 SU with a 22-22-1 record ATS. It is 15-6 SU on the road and 12-9 ATS after covering in three of its last five road games.
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The return of James Harden as the team’s leading scorer has been a huge plus in Houston’s recent surge. He scored just 10 points in last Thursday win against Minnesota in his first game back before posting 22 points against Golden State and 28 against Miami to extend the team’s current SU winning streak to three games. Harden continues to lead the NBA in scoring with an average of 31.4 points as part of the team’s 114.4-point scoring average.
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Dallas is at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to Texas teams at 16-31 SU on the year. It did manage to upend Washington 98-75 on Monday night as a 2.5-point home underdog, but this was just its third SU victory in its last nine games. The Mavericks have gone 5-4 ATS during this same span and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games. Dallas is 10-15 SU at home with a 12-13 record ATS.
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Harrison Barns led all scorers in Monday’s win with 20 points while going 9-for-16 from the field. He remains the team’s leading scorer with 18.5 points per game, but Dallas is ranked 24th in the NBA in points with 102.5 a game. The Mavericks are still one of the better defensive teams in the league with a points-allowed average of 104.1 that is ranked 10th.
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Houston at Dallas Game Betting Trends<br />
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The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a SU losing record at home. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight division games.
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The Mavericks have covered in their last six games against a division opponent and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday games. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 division matchups.
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Head-to-head in this division matchup, the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six games between the two.
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Houston at Dallas ATS Prediction 01/24/2018

The return of Harden to lineup has added a spark that had been missing in his absence. His point total has increased in his last three starts and I can see him eclipsing his season-scoring average against a heated division rival under the prime-time lights on ESPN. Winning both SU and ATS on the road as favorites against a very familiar foe is never an easy task, but I like the Rockets’ chances to do just that on Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Take Houston -5.5
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