Charlotte at Miami, Odds Analysis, Free Pick

Charlotte at Miami, Odds Analysis, Free Pick

Keith F
Date: January 27, 7:35 pm
Location: American Airlines Arena
TV: FSN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Miami -5
Total: 204.5

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The Miami Heat will continue divisional play as they host their rivals from the Queen City, the Charlotte Hornets at the American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 PM and is slated to be televised for audiences on both FSN and NBA TV. Miami has won the last five meetings between parties. The two outfits met just a week ago in Charlotte where Miami would emerge victorious by a score of 106-105, despite closing as a seven-point pup. Over this span of five games, the Heat are also 5-0 ATS.
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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat Betting Overview:<br />
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The Heat enter off a loss two nights ago when they were upset at home by the Sacramento Kings. As for Charlotte, the Hornets enter this fixture on the heels of a 121-110 victory in the ATL last night when they took down divisional foe Atlanta.
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Key Betting Trends:<br />
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On the year, the Heat stand at 27-21 SU while showing a lack of profitability against the spread with a 22-24-2 record against the spread. The Hornets enter with a record of 20-27 SU and also have not been an economical choice against the spread. The Hornets are 20-24-3 ATS season-to-date.
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Hornets at Heat Public Money:<br />
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From the early going, we have seen a significant lean on the Heat reflected 90% of the cash coming in on Miami. Despite this, the line has not trended upward or downward. On the Money Line, the Hornets come in as a +165 road dog. On the contrary, the Heat are now priced as a -175 home favorite. The Over/Under has remained idle since the open of the market. This can be chalked up to 100% of the cash being on the Over with 100% of the tickets are the Under.
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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat Prediction 1/27/18

Very simply, a recency bias is the narrative fueling this market. The Heat have been a cash cow against the Hornets in particular as of late and many takers are enamored with Miami after what they pulled off against this very club in Charlotte, a week ago. However, a lot has happened since then. Miami has since undergone a correction in markets as they were bound to be overvalued after successful covers against Houston, Charlotte, and Milwaukee where they went 2-1 SU over that span. Since then, Miami has failed to cover in the last two spots where they were favored. Moreover, this is the biggest number that Miami is asked to spot against Charlotte this season. All the ingredients suggest that the Heat are in line for an overlay. Whilst we will play this one conservative, it would not be a shocker by any means if the Hornets were to pull an upset outright. Take the points.

Free Pick: Take Charlotte +5
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