Monster Energy Series Bluegreen Vacations 500 Pick

November 10, 3:30 PM EST

NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway in Phoenix this week for the final Cup Series playoff race ahead of the season-ending championship. Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacation 500 is set to get underway at 2:30 p.m. on NBC.

Bluegreen Vacations 500 Top NASCAR Value Bets

Kevin Harvick joined Martin Truex Jr. with an automatic berth in the four-driver championship race on Nov. 17 by winning last Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway. The Top 3 in that race was filled by Aric Almirola and Daniel Suarez, who are both out of the running for this year’s title.

My top-valued pick to win at Texas was Denny Hamlin at +770, but he slipped all the way to 28th after starting third.

Turning to 5Dimes online sportsbook for the futures odds to win at Phoenix, the following three drivers offer some solid value in their posted numbers.

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Bluegreen Vacations 500 Top Favorite - Kyle Busch +310

Holding down the third spot in the updated Cup Series standings with a total of 4113 points, Busch does not have to win this race to qualify for next Sunday’s championship. Yet, he would probably feel much better about his chances to win the racing title if he did take the checkered flag at Phoenix. You would have to go back to the 14th point race of the season at Pocono to find the last time the No. 18 Toyota did cross the finish line first. His best finish in the first eight playoff races was second at Richmond. He has placed inside the Top 5 in two of those eight events. This is not the kind of racing form that wins racing titles, but I still think Busch can put together back-to-back victories to close out the year.

The primary value in his odds as the favorite to win is back-to-back victories at Phoenix in his last two Cup Series events. Busch has placed inside the Top 5 in seven of his last eight races at this track.

Bluegreen Vacations 500 Top Contender - Kyle Larson +1320

Larson broke a 75-race winless streak with a victory a few weeks back in a playoff race at Dover. With a ninth-place run at Martinsville and a 12th-place last Sunday in Texas, he is going to have to lead the No. 42 Chevrolet to victory in this race to earn a spot in the final four. He is seventh in the current standings with 4088 total points. Along with the win at Dover, Larson has six other runs inside the top five this season. The lack of consistency all year long helps to explain the longer odds at Phoenix.

He did manage to place sixth at Phoenix early in the season, coming off a third-place finish in this race last season. This is part of four runs in the previous six races at this track of sixth or better.

Bluegreen Vacations 500 Top Longshot - Joey Logano +2750

Anytime you can get Logano as long odds, it is worth a second look. He has the No. 22 Ford in position for a spot in the championship race with 4111 points, which is good enough for fourth in the updated standings. Much like Busch, he also knows that anything can happen in this Sunday's race, both good and bad. A win would keep his chances of repeating as the 2019 racing champion alive heading into Homestead-Miami Speedway. Logano has two previous wins on the 2019 resume as part of 11 runs of fifth or better. His best finish in the playoff was fourth in the recent Texas race.

A 15.2 average finishing position at Phoenix explains the longer odds on the board for one of the series top drivers. His lone victory at this track was in this event in 2016.