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After a wild debut on the Daytona road course, the Cup Series returns this weekend for back to back races at the Monster Mile, aka Dover International Speedway. Last week, I advised bettors that Martin Truex and Chase Elliott were the best road course drivers in the sport that should be targeted in all match-ups and provided a potential dark horse with Clint Bowyer at 16 to 1 odds. When the dust settled, Elliott won the race, Truex finished 3rd, and Bowyer had his best effort of the last 15 races with a solid 6th place finish. Now I am ready to switch focus towards the Monster Mile where bettors will have five betting opportunities (races) over the three day weekend among NASCAR's top 3 touring series.
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For Saturday’s opening Drydene 311, I think we will have another great betting opportunity. The Monster Mile is a one-mile concrete surface that is unlike any other track in NASCAR. The track produces breakneck speeds for its size. More importantly, the driver usually makes a significant impact towards being successful at Dover. Similar to the road course racing last week that produces a particular skill set, Dover also requires a unique feel to get around successfully. For this reason, we have seen a common theme of drivers like Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex, and Kevin Harvick constantly battling for wins over the last several years. From a betting standpoint, we can use these driver trends to make sharp betting predictions that should lead us to the pay window.
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Since the beginning of the year, I have had this race circled on my calendar. Once I saw the Chevrolet teams had made improvements with their new Camaro bodies, I immediately thought of this race because it will be Jimmie Johnson’s best opportunity to score a victory in his farewell season. Johnson owns the most wins all-time at the Monster Mile with 11 career victories. While some of Johnson’s success seems like it was a decade ago, Johnson has won 4 of the last 13 races at Dover with the most recent victory coming in 2017. If you follow my picks, I had Johnson's value elevated the previous week at Daytona's road course. I specifically called the #48 a sleeper and targeted Johnson in a key H2H match-up. Johnson easily cashed the match-up and posted one of his best finishes of the year. This week, I believe we have another prime opportunity to back the No. 48 at his best track. At 20 to 1 odds courtesy of <a class="advblue" href="https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-account?affiliate=365_034672&quot; rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b>Bet365</b></a>, I will have Johnson on my betting card!
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From a strategic standpoint, I believe H2H match-ups will be the optimal path to profits this week. I mentioned earlier that the same drivers typically emerge at the front at Dover, particularly guys like Martin Truex, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch over the last few years. Unfortunately, the betting value on those drivers is extremely saturated this week, which will be my reason for shifting more focus towards the H2H selections. However, I will mention that Brad Keselowski is an excellent betting option to pivot against the obvious favorites. Keselowski has posted a 101.3 average driver rating over the last 5 Dover races, which ranks 3rd among active drivers. Additionally, the Team Penske cars have been excellent utilizing the short track rules package this season. Therefore, Keselowski appears to be a really sharp play at 14 to 1 odds.
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